Estimating the Climate Niche of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum Using Maximum Entropy Modeling
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Species Occurrence Data
2.2. Taxonomy and Life Cycle of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum
2.3. Climate Data and Environmental Variables
2.4. Maxent Model Considerations
2.5. Variable Selection and Climate Niche
2.6. Model Evaluation and Selection
2.7. Fungal Species Habitat Suitability
3. Results
3.1. Sclerotinia Model Prediction
3.2. Climate Responses and Climate Niches
3.3. Geographic Habitat Suitability and Model Validation
4. Discussion
Supplementary Materials
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Bioclimatic Variable * | Unit | Percentage | Permutation |
---|---|---|---|
Contribution | Importance | ||
BIO1 = Annual Mean Temperature | °C | __ | __ |
BIO2 = Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp − min temp)) | °C | __ | __ |
BIO3 = Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) | __ | 8.5 | 11.9 |
BIO4 = Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation * 100) | C of V | 0.5 | 6.4 |
BIO5 = Max Temperature of Warmest Month | °C | 2.6 | 2.9 |
BIO6 = Min Temperature of Coldest Month | °C | 0.4 | 0.0 |
BIO7 = Temperature Annual Range (BIO5–BIO6) | °C | __ | ___ |
BIO8 = Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter | °C | __ | ___ |
BIO9 = Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter | °C | __ | ___ |
BIO10 = Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter | °C | __ | ___ |
BIO11 = Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter | °C | 31.1 | 55.6 |
BIO12 = Annual Precipitation | mm | 14.2 | 14.1 |
BIO13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month | mm | __ | __ |
BIO14 = Precipitation of Driest Month | mm | 11.5 | 1.6 |
BIO15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) | C of V | 7.0 | 0.3 |
BIO16 = Precipitation of Wettest Quarter | mm | __ | ___ |
BIO17 = Precipitation of Driest Quarter | mm | __ | ___ |
BIO18 = Precipitation of Warmest Quarter | mm | __ | ___ |
BIO19 = Precipitation of Coldest Quarter | mm | 24.2 | 7.1 |
Species | Training # | Test # | AUC Training | AUC Test | AUC Difference | AUC Average |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fungal pathogen | ||||||
S. sclerotiorum | ||||||
Non-Random Model | 34 | 11 | 0.936 | 0.903 | 0.033 | 0.920 |
Random Model 0 | 40 | 5 | 0.934 | 0.917 | 0.017 | 0.926 |
Random Model 1 | 40 | 5 | 0.937 | 0.875 | 0.062 | 0.906 |
Random Model 2 | 40 | 5 | 0.935 | 0.879 | 0.056 | 0.907 |
Random Model 3 | 40 | 5 | 0.930 | 0.970 | −0.04 | 0.950 |
Random Model 4 | 40 | 5 | 0.929 | 0.955 | −0.02 | 0.942 |
Random Model 5 | 41 | 4 | 0.929 | 0.941 | −0.012 | 0.935 |
Random Model 6 | 41 | 4 | 0.937 | 0.861 | 0.076 | 0.900 |
Random Model 7 | 41 | 4 | 0.931 | 0.939 | −0.008 | 0.935 |
Random Model 8 | 41 | 4 | 0.941 | 0.831 | 0.110 | 0.886 |
Random Model 9 | 41 | 4 | 0.936 | 0.842 | 0.094 | 0.889 |
Suitability Categories * | Number of Occurrences | Z-Score ** | p Value ** | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Maxent Model Dataset | Validation Dataset | |||
Low Suitability | 3 | 12 | −0.624 | 0.533 |
Moderate Suitability | 9 | 14 | −0.342 | 0.732 |
High Suitability | 13 | 34 | −0.369 | 0.712 |
Very High Suitability | 20 | 25 | 0.731 | 0.465 |
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Cohen, S.D. Estimating the Climate Niche of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum Using Maximum Entropy Modeling. J. Fungi 2023, 9, 892. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof9090892
Cohen SD. Estimating the Climate Niche of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum Using Maximum Entropy Modeling. Journal of Fungi. 2023; 9(9):892. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof9090892
Chicago/Turabian StyleCohen, Susan D. 2023. "Estimating the Climate Niche of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum Using Maximum Entropy Modeling" Journal of Fungi 9, no. 9: 892. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof9090892