Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment

Bartlow, Andrew W.; Manore, Carrie; Xu, Chonggang; Kaufeld, Kimberly A.; Del Valle, Sara; Ziemann, Amanda; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Fair, Jeanne M.

doi:10.3390/vetsci6020040

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Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment

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Los Alamos National Laboratory, Biosecurity and Public Health, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA

Los Alamos National Laboratory, Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA

Los Alamos National Laboratory, Earth Systems Observations, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA

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Los Alamos National Laboratory, Statistical Sciences, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA

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Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space Data Science and Systems, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Vet. Sci. 2019, 6(2), 40; https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci6020040

Received: 9 March 2019 / Revised: 12 April 2019 / Accepted: 29 April 2019 / Published: 6 May 2019

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Role of the Environment in the Spread and Maintenance of Zoonotic Pathogens)

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Abstract

Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty. View Full-Text

Keywords: infectious disease; zoonotic; mosquito; vector-borne; climate change; range expansion; epidemiology

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

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MDPI and ACS Style

Bartlow, A.W.; Manore, C.; Xu, C.; Kaufeld, K.A.; Del Valle, S.; Ziemann, A.; Fairchild, G.; Fair, J.M. Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment. Vet. Sci. 2019, 6, 40. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci6020040

AMA Style

Bartlow AW, Manore C, Xu C, Kaufeld KA, Del Valle S, Ziemann A, Fairchild G, Fair JM. Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment. Veterinary Sciences. 2019; 6(2):40. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci6020040

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bartlow, Andrew W., Carrie Manore, Chonggang Xu, Kimberly A. Kaufeld, Sara Del Valle, Amanda Ziemann, Geoffrey Fairchild, and Jeanne M. Fair. 2019. "Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment" Veterinary Sciences 6, no. 2: 40. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci6020040

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Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment

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