Qualitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Introduction and Transmission to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation in Thailand: A Scenario-Based Approach
Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Scope of Study and Study Design
2.3. Risk Assessment Framework and Risk Questions
2.4. Hazard Identification
2.5. Physical Risk Pathway and Scenario Trees
2.6. Data Collection and Parameterizations
2.6.1. Entry Assessment
- Parameterization of L1: Likelihood of presence of FMD-infected animals. This parameter assessed the presence of FMD-infected animals in the district, based on FMD prevalence data, animal management practices from farmer questionnaires (n = 109), and expert input.
- Parameterization of L2: Likelihood of contaminated feed and water. This parameter evaluated the likelihood of contaminated feed and water, considering roughage sourcing, transportation, storage, water sources, and disinfection practices, identified through farmer surveys.
- Parameterization of L3: Likelihood of domestic reservoir transmission. This parameter assessed domestic reservoir transmission, considering FMD prevalence in other livestock, farm location near high-risk areas, and biosecurity measures against various domestic animals and pests.
- Parameterization of L4: Likelihood of milk from infected animals mixed with bulk. This parameter determined the likelihood of milk from infected animals contaminating bulk milk, based on farmer awareness of FMD clinical signs (including their ability to identify key signs), daily animal observation, understanding of subclinical FMD carrier animals, and mitigation practices such as isolation and separate milking.
- Parameterization of L5: Likelihood of contaminated milking equipment. This parameter assessed the likelihood of contaminated milking equipment, considering practices such as milking order for infected animals, use of separate equipment, shared pens, and equipment cleaning procedures.
- Parameterization of L6: Likelihood of contaminated milk during the milking process. This parameter evaluated milker contamination during milking based on personal protective equipment (PPE) usage (gloves, hairnets, masks, aprons), farm staffing (owners/workers as milkers/transporters), and post-milking hygiene practices.
- Parameterization of L7: Likelihood of contaminated vehicles during the milking process. This parameter assesses contaminated vehicles during milking, considering vehicle types, proximity to milking pens, use of disinfection points, and regular vehicle cleaning practices.
2.6.2. Exposure Assessment
- Parameterization of L8: Likelihood of inadequate biosecurity at milk collection center. This parameter evaluated inadequate biosecurity at milk collection centers by assessing risks from milk delivery personnel, monitoring wheel-dipping ponds, and systematically inspecting equipment brought into the center.
- Parameterization of L9: Likelihood of contaminated personnel and equipment. This parameter assessed contaminated personnel and equipment at the milk collection center, focusing on virus transmission risks during raw milk receiving, staff PPE usage, and shared equipment acting as fomites.
- Parameterization of L10: Likelihood of washing milk containers at the same site. This parameter evaluated the likelihood of milk container washing occurring at the milk collection center by comparing on-farm washing practices to regulations, considering disease transmission risks, and noting pandemic-related changes in delivery protocols.
- Parameterization of L11: Likelihood of inadequate biosecurity at dairy farms. This parameter assessed inadequate biosecurity at dairy farms by evaluating risks from individuals entering the farm (e.g., milk drivers from various exposure settings), monitoring of wheel-dipping ponds, and personal hygiene practices of farm personnel.
- Parameterization of L12: Likelihood of indirect contact with dairy cattle. This parameter evaluated the likelihood of indirect contact with dairy cattle, considering farmer engagement in close-contact farm activities upon return from milk collection and the proximity of on-farm milk container washing to animal pens.
2.6.3. Consequence Assessment
2.7. Combination of the Likelihood of the Occurrence Hazard
2.8. Combination of Risk Estimation
2.9. Uncertainty Assessment
3. Results
3.1. Introduction of FMDV into Milk
3.1.1. Likelihood of Presence of FMD-Infected Animals (L1)
3.1.2. Likelihood of Contaminated Feed and Water (L2)
3.1.3. Likelihood of Domestic Reservoir Transmission (L3)
3.2. Contamination During Milking Process
3.2.1. Likelihood of Milk from Infected Animals Mixed with Bulk (L4)
3.2.2. Likelihood of Contaminated Milking Equipment During Milking Process (L5)
3.2.3. Likelihood of Contaminated Milker During Milking Process (L6)
3.2.4. Likelihood of Contaminated Vehicles During Milking Process (L7)
3.3. Contamination During Transportation and Loading
3.3.1. Likelihood of Inadequate Biosecurity at Milk Collection Center (L8)
3.3.2. Likelihood of Contaminated Personnel and Equipment (L9)
3.3.3. Likelihood of Washing Milk Containers at the Same Site (L10)
3.4. Transmission to Dairy Farms
3.4.1. Likelihood of Inadequate Biosecurity at Dairy Farms (L11)
3.4.2. Likelihood of Indirect Contact with Dairy Cattle (L12)
3.5. Consequence Assessment
3.6. Risk Estimation
3.6.1. Likelihood of the Occurrence of Hazard
3.6.2. Risk Estimation for Introduction and Transmission of FMDV to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation
4. Discussion
4.1. Overall Risk Assessment and Key Vulnerabilities
4.2. Analysis of Likelihoods and Contributing Factors
4.3. Limitations and Future Research
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
FMD | Foot-and-mouth disease |
FMDV | Foot-and-mouth disease virus |
PPE | Personal protective equipment |
WOAH | The World Organization for Animal Health |
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Results of the Assessment of Parameter 1 | Results of the Assessment of Parameter 2 | |||
Negligible | Low | Moderate | High | |
Negligible | Negligible | Negligible | Negligible | Negligible |
Low | Negligible | Low | Low | Low |
Moderate | Negligible | Low | Moderate | Moderate |
High | Negligible | Low | Moderate | High |
Results of the Assessment of Parameter 1 | Results of the Assessment of Parameter 2 | |||
Negligible | Low | Moderate | High | |
Negligible | Negligible | Low | Low | Moderate |
Low | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate |
Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | High |
High | Moderate | Moderate | High | High |
Uncertainty Category | Interpretation |
---|---|
Low |
|
Moderate |
|
High |
|
Parameterizations | Key Findings | Likelihood | Uncertainty |
---|---|---|---|
L1 |
| Low | Low |
L2 |
| Low | Moderate |
L3 |
| Low | Low |
L4 |
| High | High |
L5 |
| Low | High |
L6 |
| Moderate | High |
L7 |
| Low | High |
L8 |
| Low | Moderate |
L9 |
| Moderate | High |
L10 |
| Low | High |
L11 |
| Low | High |
L12 |
| High | High |
Parameterizations | Risk Level | Combined Risk | |
---|---|---|---|
Likelihood of entry | |||
Introduction of FMDV into milk | |||
L1: Presence of FMD-infected animals | Low | Low * | Low * |
L2: Contaminated feed and water | Low | ||
L3: Domestic reservoir transmission | Low | ||
Contamination during the milking process | |||
L4: Milk from infected animals mixed with bulk | High | Low * | |
L5: Contaminated milking equipment | Low | ||
L6: Contaminated milker during milking process | Moderate | ||
L7: Contaminated vehicles during the milking process | Low | ||
Likelihood of exposure | |||
Contamination during transportation and loading | |||
L8: Inadequate biosecurity at milk collection center | Low | Low * | Low * |
L9: Contaminated personnel and equipment | Moderate | ||
L10: Washing milk containers at the same site | Low | ||
Transmission to dairy farms | |||
L11: Inadequate biosecurity at dairy farms | Low | Low * | |
L12: Indirect contact with dairy cattle | High | ||
Likelihood of the occurrence of hazard | |||
Likelihood of entry | Low | Low * | |
Likelihood of exposure | Low |
Parameterizations | Risk Level | Risk Estimation |
---|---|---|
Likelihood of hazard occurrence | Low | Moderate * |
Consequences assessment | High |
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Share and Cite
Chumsang, P.; Singhla, T.; Chaisowwong, W. Qualitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Introduction and Transmission to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation in Thailand: A Scenario-Based Approach. Vet. Sci. 2025, 12, 623. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci12070623
Chumsang P, Singhla T, Chaisowwong W. Qualitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Introduction and Transmission to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation in Thailand: A Scenario-Based Approach. Veterinary Sciences. 2025; 12(7):623. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci12070623
Chicago/Turabian StyleChumsang, Patidpong, Tawatchai Singhla, and Warangkhana Chaisowwong. 2025. "Qualitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Introduction and Transmission to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation in Thailand: A Scenario-Based Approach" Veterinary Sciences 12, no. 7: 623. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci12070623
APA StyleChumsang, P., Singhla, T., & Chaisowwong, W. (2025). Qualitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Introduction and Transmission to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation in Thailand: A Scenario-Based Approach. Veterinary Sciences, 12(7), 623. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci12070623