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Analysis of the 2014 Wet Extreme in Bulgaria: Anomalies of Temperature, Precipitation and Terrestrial Water Storage

by 1,*,†, 1,†, 2,† and 1,†
1
Department Meteorology and Geophysics, Faculty of Physics, Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Sofia, BG-1164, Bulgaria
2
Astronomical Institute, Bern University, Bern, CH-3012, Switzerland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Hydrology 2020, 7(3), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7030066
Received: 17 July 2020 / Revised: 4 September 2020 / Accepted: 5 September 2020 / Published: 9 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Soil Moisture: From Observations to Reanalysis and Remote Sensing)
Impact on the hydrology cycle is projected to be one of the most noticeable consequences of climate change. An increase in regional dry and wet extremes has already been observed, resulting in large socioeconomic losses. The 2014 wet conditions in Bulgaria present a valuable case study for analyzing the interaction between multiple drivers that are essential for early forecasting and warning of flood events. In this paper, time series analysis of temperature, precipitation and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) is performed and cross-correlations between observations and climate variability indices are computed for a 12-year period. In Bulgaria, a positive linear temperature trend was found with precipitation and TWSA exhibiting negative trends for the period 2003–2014. The year 2014 started with a drier and warmer than usual winter followed by five consecutive wet months from March to July. We found the following long-term variations: (1) temperature showing a local minimum in November 2014, (2) precipitation peaks in July 2014 and (3) a local TWSA maximum in December 2014. Over a 12-year period, weak to moderate negative correlations were observed between the long-term components of temperature, precipitation and TWSA. Moderate positive correlations with a 3 to 6-month lag were obtained between precipitation and TWSA long-term components. The long-term trends of temperature and precipitation from surface observations and atmospheric reanalysis showed very good alignment. Very large subseasonal precipitation residuals from observations and atmospheric reanalysis were obtained for April and September 2014. Two oscillation indices showed: (1) weak correlations with precipitation and (2) weak to moderate correlations with TWSA. View Full-Text
Keywords: temperature; precipitation; GRACE terrestrial water storage; ERA5 reanalysis; climate oscillation indices temperature; precipitation; GRACE terrestrial water storage; ERA5 reanalysis; climate oscillation indices
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MDPI and ACS Style

Mircheva, B.; Tsekov, M.; Meyer, U.; Guerova, G. Analysis of the 2014 Wet Extreme in Bulgaria: Anomalies of Temperature, Precipitation and Terrestrial Water Storage. Hydrology 2020, 7, 66. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7030066

AMA Style

Mircheva B, Tsekov M, Meyer U, Guerova G. Analysis of the 2014 Wet Extreme in Bulgaria: Anomalies of Temperature, Precipitation and Terrestrial Water Storage. Hydrology. 2020; 7(3):66. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7030066

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mircheva, Biliana, Milen Tsekov, Ulrich Meyer, and Guergana Guerova. 2020. "Analysis of the 2014 Wet Extreme in Bulgaria: Anomalies of Temperature, Precipitation and Terrestrial Water Storage" Hydrology 7, no. 3: 66. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7030066

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