Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Model Development
2.2. ECs Brief Description and Selection
2.3. Including ECs, LC50 and EC50 in the Minho Ecosystem Model
2.4. Single- and Multiple-Stressors Simulated Scenarios
2.5. Global Sensitivity Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Scenario Name | Contaminant | Concentration (µgL−1) | Temperature Increase (°C) | Note | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP4.5 | Without any EC | - | +1.8 | - | [25] |
RCP8.5 | Without any EC | - | +3.7 | - | [25] |
4-NP | 4-Nonylphenol | 0.3 | - | AA-EQS | [39,40] |
4-NP-RCP4.5 | 4-Nonylphenol | 0.3 | +1.8 | AA-EQS | [39,40] |
4-NP-RCP8.5 | 4-Nonylphenol | 0.3 | +3.7 | AA-EQS | [39,40] |
BPA | Bisphenol A | 0.2 | - | AA-EQS | [24] |
BPA-RCP4.5 | Bisphenol A | 0.2 | +1.8 | AA-EQS | [24] |
BPA-RCP8.5 | Bisphenol A | 0.2 | +3.7 | AA-EQS | [24] |
DCF | Diclofenac | 0.1 | - | AA-EQS | [67,68] |
DCF-RCP4.5 | Diclofenac | 0.1 | +1.8 | AA-EQS | [67,68] |
DCF-RCP8.5 | Diclofenac | 0.1 | +3.7 | AA-EQS | [67,68] |
EE2 | 17α-ethinylestradiol | 3.5 × 10−5 | - | AA-EQS | [24,68] |
EE2-RCP4.5 | 17α-ethinylestradiol | 3.5 × 10−5 | +1.8 | AA-EQS | [24,68] |
EE2-RCP8.5 | 17α-ethinylestradiol | 3.5 × 10−5 | +3.7 | AA-EQS | [24,68] |
Multi-EC | 4-NP, BPA, DCF, EE2 | The same as above | - | AA-EQS | The same as above |
Multi-EC-RCP4.5 | 4-NP, BPA, DCF, EE2 | The same as above | +1.8 | AA-EQS | The same as above |
Multi-EC-RCP8.5 | 4-NP, BPA, DCF, EE2 | The same as above | +3.7 | AA-EQS | The same as above |
Biomass Production | Control | BPA | 4NP | EE2 | DCF | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | Mixed ECs | Mixed ECs-RCP4.5 | Mixed ECs-RCP8.5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benthic Invertebrates (gDWm−2) | 15.39 | 14.99 | 17.62 | 16.20 | 16.15 | 14.84 | 15.34 | 14.92 | 14.46 | 14.45 |
Variable | Estimate | Std. Error | t Value | Pr (>|t|) |
---|---|---|---|---|
BPA | −2.72 | 0.15 | −18.35 | <0.001 |
Control | 1.51 | 0.15 | 10.15 | <0.001 |
DCF | 1.50 | 0.15 | 10.02 | <0.001 |
EE2 | 1.51 | 0.15 | 10.12 | <0.001 |
Mixed EC | −2.67 | 0.15 | −17.97 | <0.001 |
H. diversicolor | −7.08 | 0.12 | −58.40 | <0.001 |
H. ulvae | −1.93 | 0.12 | −15.90 | <0.001 |
S. plana | 0.62 | 0.12 | 5.08 | 0.335 |
Time | −3 × 10−4 | 4 × 10−5 | −8.70 | <0.001 |
Variable Removed | df | Sum of Squares | Residual Sum of Squares | AIC |
---|---|---|---|---|
None | 173,404 | 28,027.59 | ||
Temperature | 2 | 58 | 173,346 | 28,028.34 |
Time | 1 | 1347 | 174,751 | 28,101 |
Contaminant | 5 | 34,324 | 207,728 | 29,773 |
Species | 3 | 88,959 | 262,363 | 32,047 |
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Martins, I.; Soares, J.; Neuparth, T.; Barreiro, A.F.; Xavier, C.; Antunes, C.; Santos, M.M. Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios. Toxics 2022, 10, 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics10020046
Martins I, Soares J, Neuparth T, Barreiro AF, Xavier C, Antunes C, Santos MM. Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios. Toxics. 2022; 10(2):46. https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics10020046
Chicago/Turabian StyleMartins, Irene, Joana Soares, Teresa Neuparth, Aldo F. Barreiro, Cândido Xavier, Carlos Antunes, and Miguel M. Santos. 2022. "Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios" Toxics 10, no. 2: 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics10020046