Next Article in Journal
Predicting the Oxidative Degradation of Raw Beef Meat during Cold Storage Using Numerical Simulations and Sensors—Prospects for Meat and Fish Foods
Next Article in Special Issue
What Intentions and Interesting Information Can Attract Consumers to Scan QR Code While Buying Eggs?
Previous Article in Journal
Transcriptomics Integrated with Changes in Cell Wall Material of Chestnut (Castanea mollissima Blume) during Storage Provides a New Insight into the “Calcification” Process
 
 
Article

Development of a Predictive Model for Agave Prices Employing Environmental, Economic, and Social Factors: Towards a Planned Supply Chain for Agave-Tequila Industry

1
Grupo de Investigación en Materiales y Fenómenos de Superficie, Departamento de Ciencias Biotecnológicas y Ambientales, Universidad Autónoma de Guadalajara, Av. Patria 1201, Zapopan CP 45129, Jalisco, Mexico
2
Consejo Regulador del Tequila A. C., Av. Patria 723, Zapopan CP 45030, Jalisco, Mexico
3
Departamento de Ciencias Biotecnológicas y Ambientales, Universidad Autónoma de Guadalajara, Av. Patria 1201, Zapopan CP 45129, Jalisco, Mexico
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Current address: Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico en Electroquímica (CIDETEQ), Parque Tecnológico Sanfandila, Pedro Escobedo CP 76703, Querétaro, Mexico.
Current address: Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Posgrado, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, San Luis Potosí CP 78060, Querétaro, Mexico.
Academic Editor: Arun K. Bhunia
Foods 2022, 11(8), 1138; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11081138
Received: 18 February 2022 / Revised: 10 March 2022 / Accepted: 11 April 2022 / Published: 14 April 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Market Research of Food Systems and Supply Chains)
The interest of consumers to acquire Tequila has caused an increase in its sales. As demand increases, the Tequila industry must obtain its raw material at a constant rate and agave farmers must be prepared to satisfy this supply chain. Because of this, modernization of the strategies used to ensure a planned, scheduled, timely, and predictable production will allow farmers to maintain the current demand for Tequila. This has been evidenced in official historical records from 1999 to 2020 where there is a fluctuation in the price of agave due to supply and demand. Given this scenario, this research shows the development of a multivariable predictive mathematical model that will permit the agave–Tequila production chain to work based on a smart implementation of planned actions to guarantee the agave supply to the Tequila industry. The proposed model has a goodness of fit (R = 0.8676; R¯2 = 0.8609; F(1,20) = 131.01 > F0.01 (1,20) = 8.10) and demonstrates the impact on agave prices is due to several factors: Tequila exports (α = 0.50) > agave plants harvested “jima” (α = 0.44) > dollar exchange (α = 0.43) > Tequila production (α = 0.06) > annual accumulated precipitation (α = 0.05). Nevertheless, the price forecast can be influenced by climate change or economic crises that affect the supply chain. In conclusion, a prediction of agave price stabilization for five years is shown where authorized producers can evaluate future scenarios so that the agave supply chain can be guaranteed for Tequila production, facilitating the decision making regarding its raw material. View Full-Text
Keywords: Tequila production; predictive model; agave planification and harvest; guarantee supply chain of agave-Tequila industry Tequila production; predictive model; agave planification and harvest; guarantee supply chain of agave-Tequila industry
Show Figures

Graphical abstract

MDPI and ACS Style

Warren-Vega, W.M.; Aguilar-Hernández, D.E.; Zárate-Guzmán, A.I.; Campos-Rodríguez, A.; Romero-Cano, L.A. Development of a Predictive Model for Agave Prices Employing Environmental, Economic, and Social Factors: Towards a Planned Supply Chain for Agave-Tequila Industry. Foods 2022, 11, 1138. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11081138

AMA Style

Warren-Vega WM, Aguilar-Hernández DE, Zárate-Guzmán AI, Campos-Rodríguez A, Romero-Cano LA. Development of a Predictive Model for Agave Prices Employing Environmental, Economic, and Social Factors: Towards a Planned Supply Chain for Agave-Tequila Industry. Foods. 2022; 11(8):1138. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11081138

Chicago/Turabian Style

Warren-Vega, Walter M., David E. Aguilar-Hernández, Ana I. Zárate-Guzmán, Armando Campos-Rodríguez, and Luis A. Romero-Cano. 2022. "Development of a Predictive Model for Agave Prices Employing Environmental, Economic, and Social Factors: Towards a Planned Supply Chain for Agave-Tequila Industry" Foods 11, no. 8: 1138. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11081138

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop