The Impact of Cloud Computing on Mass and Energy Flows: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the IT and Communications Sectors at the European Level (2014–2021)
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Scientific Background
2.1. Cloud Computing Adoption
2.2. Cloud Computing Environmental Impact
2.3. European Policy Context
2.4. Cloud Computing, Mass and Energy Transfer
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Variables General Description
3.2. Descriptive Statistics
- High mean values (over 50%) for E_CC_J and E_CC_J62_J63 indicate broad cloud adoption.
- Median values suggest asymmetry, especially for GHG_J and GHG_J62_J63.
- High standard deviation shows considerable emission variability across countries and time.
- Cloud use is more consistent in IT subsectors (E_CC_J62_J63).
- Positive skewness in GHG variables suggests outliers.
- Elevated kurtosis values reflect strong peaks and clustering near the mean.
- The Jarque–Bera test confirms non-normality in GHG_J and GHG_J62_J63, while E_CC variables show more balanced distributions.
3.3. Viewing the Dynamics of Variables
3.4. Methodological Approach Overview
3.5. Econometric Framework
4. Results
4.1. Stationarity Analysis Results
4.2. Optimal Lags Results
4.3. VAR Model Estimation Results
4.4. Results of Cointegration Tests
4.5. Results of Causality Relationship Exploration—Granger Causality
4.6. Results of VECM Estimation
- -
- D_ECC_J: 0.338699, t-statistics = 0.40570 (|t| < 2, insignificant).
- -
- D_ECC_J62_J63: 3.315950, t-statistics = 2.79046 (|t| > 2, significant).
- -
- D_GHG_J: 0.596205, t-statistics = 1.46592 (|t| < 2, insignificant).
- -
- D_GHG_J62_J63: 0.321727, t-statistics = 1.96138 (|t| < 2, almost significant).
4.7. Impulse Response Function Results
- -
- D_ECC_J to its own shocks—We observe a moderate oscillation in the first 10 periods, with a tendency to return to equilibrium. This indicates that the general sector J has a strong inertia in adapting to internal shocks.
- -
- D_ECC_J62_J63 to D_ECC_J—The initial impact is positive but transitory. This suggests a complementarity relationship between the general sector and the IT subsectors.
- -
- D_GHG_J to D_ECC_J—The effects are oscillating and insignificant. This indicates that changes in the general sector’s use of cloud computing do not consistently affect overall emissions.
- -
- D_GHG_J62_J63 to D_ECC_J—The impact is weak, suggesting an indirect relationship between emissions in the IT subsectors and the general sector.
- -
- D_ECC_J to D_ECC_J62_J63: Shocks in the general sector have a transitory and positive impact on IT subsectors, indicating a chain propagation effect.
- -
- D_GHG_J to D_ECC_J62_J63: The impact is initially negative but tends to become positive in the long run, suggesting a gradual adaptation of IT subsectors to shocks in general emissions.
- -
- D_GHG_J62_J63 to D_ECC_J62_J63: The positive impact confirms that IT subsectors are leaders in adapting to new technological conditions.
- -
- D_ECC_J to D_GHG_J: The impact is marginal, suggesting that cloud computing does not significantly reduce general emissions.
- -
- D_GHG_J62_J63 to D_GHG_J: Shocks in IT subsectors moderate overall emissions, reflecting an indirect relationship between the two.
- -
- D_ECC_J62_J63 to D_GHG_J62_J63: IT subsectors show a transitory reduction in emissions, reflecting the technological efficiency of cloud computing infrastructure.
- -
- D_GHG_J to D_GHG_J62_J63: The impact is positive and consistent, indicating that overall emissions directly influence IT subsectors.
4.8. Results of Variance Decomposition
5. Discussion
- (a)
- This study combines econometric analysis (cointegration, Granger tests) with mass and energy flow theory to understand the relationship between digitalization and sustainability, representing an innovative interdisciplinary approach.
- (b)
- This research provides a detailed analysis of sectoral differences in the use of cloud computing services and the impact on GHG emissions, with a focus on the IT subsectors (J62_J63). This level of detail is rarely found in the literature.
- (c)
- We used advanced VECM and impulse-response functions to explore short-term adjustments towards long-term equilibrium, complemented by impulse-response functions and variance decomposition to understand the dynamics and interdependencies between variables.
- (d)
- This study provides empirical evidence that cloud computing services can reduce GHG emissions in the IT sectors, underscoring the critical role of digitalization in the green transition. Similar studies for various variables can support policy relevance for the twin transition (green and digital).
- (e)
- This research uses recent data (2014–2021) and relevant economic variables, such as GHG emissions and the use of cloud computing services, to provide an up-to-date picture of the impact of digital technologies.
- (f)
- We have shown that IT subsectors (J62_J63) are more efficient in using digital technologies to optimize mass and energy flows compared to the overall communications sector (J), making a key contribution to understanding structural differences between sectors.
- (g)
- This study extends the use of econometric models to include a physical perspective on mass and energy flows, laying the foundation for further interdisciplinary research.
6. Conclusions
6.1. Impact of Cloud Computing on GHG Emissions
6.2. Research Question Answer
6.3. Study Limits
6.4. Further Developments
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
IT | Information technology |
GHG | Greenhouse gas |
VAR | Vector Auto-Regression |
VECM | Vector Error Correction Models |
IRF | Impulse response functions |
Appendix A. Building and Structuring the Balanced Data Panel
ECC_J | ECC_J62_J63 | GHG_J | GHG_J62_J63 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | 51.07375 | 56.58125 | 18.11201 | 7.085123 |
Median | 48.00000 | 54.90000 | 13.18978 | 4.140560 |
Maximum | 93.10000 | 97.40000 | 85.58348 | 41.07625 |
Minimum | 15.60000 | 21.80000 | 2.972950 | 1.012820 |
Std. Dev. | 18.97992 | 18.75741 | 17.42633 | 7.916313 |
Skewness | 0.371863 | 0.113451 | 2.222058 | 2.276262 |
Kurtosis | 2.250468 | 2.106907 | 8.178066 | 8.290706 |
Jarque–Bera | 3.716421 | 2.830331 | 155.2085 | 162.3901 |
Probability | 0.155951 | 0.242885 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
Sum | 4085.900 | 4526.500 | 1448.961 | 566.8098 |
Sum Sq. Dev. | 28,458.75 | 27,795.38 | 23,990.47 | 4950.773 |
Observations | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
Appendix B. Figure A1 Detailed Explanation
- E_CC_J graph
- Trend: A progressive increase in the use of cloud computing services is observed in the Information and Communication sector, highlighting a constant digital transition.
- Fluctuations: Although there are periods with slight oscillations, the general trend is upward, suggesting a growing adoption of digital technologies.
- Relevance: The increase reflects the acceleration of digitalization processes in this sector, possibly correlated with public policies favorable to digitalization and improved IT infrastructures.
- E_CC_J62_J63 graph
- Trend: The growth is similar to that of E_CC_J, but more stable, suggesting a uniform adoption of cloud services in these subsectors.
- Fluctuations: Variability is lower, which may indicate a more homogeneous behavior among enterprises in these subsectors.
- Relevance: The IT and communications subsectors are natural leaders in the adoption of cloud technologies, due to the specificity of their digital activities.
- GHG_J graph
- Trend: The series shows significant fluctuations, with pronounced peaks in certain periods.
- Observations:
- ○
- The peaks could reflect periods of intense growth of economic activities or inefficient use of energy resources.
- ○
- In certain periods, there is a slight downward trend, possibly due to the adoption of more energy-efficient technologies.
- Relevance: The fluctuations indicate the dependence of emissions on the energy structure and the implementation of sustainable technologies in this sector.
- GHG_J62_J63
- Trend: Similar to GHG_J, but with smaller fluctuations.
- Observations:
- ○
- IT subsectors show lower emission values, suggesting a more energy-efficient infrastructure.
- ○
- Peaks are likely associated with increased economic activity or periods of high energy consumption.
- Relevance: Lower emission values indicate that digitalization can contribute to reducing environmental impacts, especially through the use of centralized cloud technologies.
- Possible correlations between the graphs:
- E_CC_J and GHG_J: The increase in the use of cloud services coincides with the reduction in fluctuations in greenhouse gas emissions, which may suggest that digitalization and the transition to more efficient IT infrastructures contribute to the decrease in emissions.
- E_CC_J62_J63 and GHG_J62_J63: The adoption of cloud technologies is more pronounced in the IT subsectors, which may explain the lower and more stable emission values in these sectors compared to the overall level of emissions in the communications sector.
- Conclusions:
- The graphs highlight an accelerated digital transition through the adoption of cloud computing services, which indirectly contributes to the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
- The IT and communications sector shows a positive evolution, but the fluctuations in emissions in the general sector suggest that there is still room for improvement, especially by implementing sustainable solutions.
- Relevance for research: Correlations between the use of digital technologies and greenhouse gas emissions can guide future policies for a sustainable digital economy.
Appendix C. Detailed Description of Methodology
Appendix C.1. Stationarity
Appendix C.2. Selection of the Optimal Lags
- -
- -
- -
Appendix C.3. The VAR Model
- -
- The time series must be stationary to avoid misleading results.
- -
- The model assumes a linear interdependency between variables [107].
- -
- The lag structure must be optimized to prevent overfitting.
Appendix C.4. Cointegration Tests
- -
- The presence of cointegrating vectors, indicating a stable long-run relationship.
- -
- The number of cointegration equations in the system
- (a)
- Johansen Cointegration Test: This test was applied in the first stage to evaluate long-term cointegration relationships between the 1st-order derived variables [109]. Its results confirmed the long-term dynamic relationships for lag 2, indicating that the analyzed variables are cointegrated.
- (b)
- Kao Residual Cointegration Test: This was used to validate the cointegration on the balanced panel of the first derivative. Based on the analysis of the residuals, the Kao test further confirmed the long-term relationships between the analyzed variables [110].
Appendix C.5. Exploring the Causality—Granger Causality
Appendix C.6. Estimation and Analysis of the VECM
- -
- Short-Term Dynamics—Captures short-run deviations from equilibrium.
- -
- Error Correction Term (ECT)—Represents the speed at which variables revert to their long-run equilibrium [109].
- -
- A positive shock in cloud computing adoption may initially lead to higher GHG emissions due to increased energy demand.
- -
- Over time, efficiency gains and the transition to renewable energy sources could lead to a reduction in emissions.
- -
- The primary drivers of GHG emissions variations (e.g., cloud adoption, economic activity, and energy mix).
- -
- The extent to which cloud computing adoption explains fluctuations in emissions compared to other external shocks.
Appendix D. Results of the Stationary Tests (ADF and Choi Z-Stat) for Raw and Differenced Series
- Stationarity test for ECC_J
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) | ||||
Series: ECC_J | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:03 | ||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | ||||
Exogenous variables: Individual effects | ||||
Automatic selection of maximum lags | ||||
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 | ||||
Total (balanced) observations: 84 | ||||
Cross-sections included: 14 | ||||
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | ||
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 8.51050 | 0.9999 | ||
ADF—Choi Z-stat | 3.31014 | 0.9995 | ||
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality. | ||||
Intermediate ADF test results ECC_J | ||||
Cross | ||||
section | Prob. | Lag | Max Lag | Obs |
BG | 0.8627 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
CY | 0.9493 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
DK | 0.7826 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
ES | 0.2283 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
FI | 0.5227 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
HR | 0.9323 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
HU | 0.6444 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
LT | 0.7521 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
LV | 0.9169 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
NO | 0.7556 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
PL | 0.9648 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
RO | 0.8464 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SI | 0.8808 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SK | 0.8239 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
- 2.
- Stationarity test for D_ECC_J
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) | ||||
Series: D_ECC_J | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:05 | ||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | ||||
Exogenous variables: Individual effects | ||||
Automatic selection of maximum lags | ||||
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 | ||||
Total (balanced) observations: 70 | ||||
Cross-sections included: 14 | ||||
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | ||
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 59.9117 | 0.0004 | ||
ADF—Choi Z-stat | −4.05170 | 0.0000 | ||
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality. | ||||
Intermediate ADF test results D_ECC_J | ||||
Cross | ||||
section | Prob. | Lag | Max Lag | Obs |
BG | 0.0785 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
CY | 0.2463 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
DK | 0.2854 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
ES | 0.1393 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
FI | 0.1216 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
HR | 0.1930 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
HU | 0.1982 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
LT | 0.1869 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
LV | 0.0065 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
NO | 0.0133 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
PL | 0.3077 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
RO | 0.5130 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SI | 0.0574 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SK | 0.1870 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
- 3.
- Stationarity test for ECC_J62_J63
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) | ||||
Series: ECC_J62_J63 | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:09 | ||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | ||||
Exogenous variables: Individual effects | ||||
Automatic selection of maximum lags | ||||
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 | ||||
Total number of observations: 67 | ||||
Cross-sections included: 12 (2 dropped) | ||||
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | ||
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 21.7307 | 0.5953 | ||
ADF—Choi Z-stat | 1.73179 | 0.9583 | ||
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality. | ||||
Intermediate ADF test results ECC_J62_J63 | ||||
Cross | ||||
section | Prob. | Lag | Max Lag | Obs |
BG | 0.8398 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
CY | 0.8040 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
DK | 0.7067 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
ES | Dropped from Test | |||
FI | Dropped from Test | |||
HR | 0.0003 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
HU | 0.6916 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
LT | 0.7753 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
LV | 0.6493 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
NO | 0.7960 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
PL | 0.9367 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
RO | 0.7717 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SI | 0.9532 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SK | 0.7371 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
- 4.
- Stationarity test for D_ECC_J62_J63
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) | ||||
Series: D_ECC_J62_J63 | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:15 | ||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | ||||
Exogenous variables: Individual effects | ||||
Automatic selection of maximum lags | ||||
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 | ||||
Total number of observations: 53 | ||||
Cross-sections included: 11 (3 dropped) | ||||
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | ||
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 48.8843 | 0.0008 | ||
ADF—Choi Z-stat | −3.71463 | 0.0001 | ||
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality. | ||||
Intermediate ADF test results D_ECC_J62_J63 | ||||
Cross | ||||
section | Prob. | Lag | Max Lag | Obs |
BG | 0.1404 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
CY | 0.5053 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
DK | 0.2390 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
ES | Dropped from Test | |||
FI | Dropped from Test | |||
HR | Dropped from Test | |||
HU | 0.1730 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
LT | 0.3000 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
LV | 0.0043 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
NO | 0.0348 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
PL | 0.2454 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
RO | 0.1383 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SI | 0.0418 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SK | 0.1287 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
- 5.
- Stationarity tests for GHG_J
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) | ||||
Series: GHG_J | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:29 | ||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | ||||
Exogenous variables: Individual effects | ||||
Automatic selection of maximum lags | ||||
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 | ||||
Total (balanced) observations: 84 | ||||
Cross-sections included: 14 | ||||
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | ||
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 33.1635 | 0.2298 | ||
ADF—Choi Z-stat | −0.50726 | 0.3060 | ||
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality. | ||||
Intermediate ADF test results GHG_J | ||||
Cross | ||||
section | Prob. | Lag | Max Lag | Obs |
BG | 0.4643 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
CY | 0.2820 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
DK | 0.2421 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
ES | 0.5681 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
FI | 0.0026 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
HR | 0.7608 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
HU | 0.7270 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
LT | 0.4752 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
LV | 0.1072 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
NO | 0.6663 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
PL | 0.3726 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
RO | 0.8272 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SI | 0.2432 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SK | 0.9583 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
- 6.
- Stationarity test for D_GHG_J
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) | ||||
Series: D_GHG_J | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:31 | ||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | ||||
Exogenous variables: Individual effects | ||||
Automatic selection of maximum lags | ||||
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 | ||||
Total (balanced) observations: 70 | ||||
Cross-sections included: 14 | ||||
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | ||
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 59.5594 | 0.0005 | ||
ADF—Choi Z-stat | −3.97682 | 0.0000 | ||
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality. | ||||
Intermediate ADF test results D_GHG_J | ||||
Cross | ||||
section | Prob. | Lag | Max Lag | Obs |
BG | 0.2346 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
CY | 0.0895 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
DK | 0.4002 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
ES | 0.0615 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
FI | 0.0138 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
HR | 0.2023 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
HU | 0.1199 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
LT | 0.6240 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
LV | 0.1013 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
NO | 0.0441 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
PL | 0.3938 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
RO | 0.1975 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SI | 0.1843 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SK | 0.0169 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
- 7.
- Stationarity test for GHG_J62_J63
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) | ||||
Series: GHG_J62_J63 | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:33 | ||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | ||||
Exogenous variables: Individual effects | ||||
Automatic selection of maximum lags | ||||
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 | ||||
Total (balanced) observations: 84 | ||||
Cross-sections included: 14 | ||||
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | ||
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 31.2682 | 0.3053 | ||
ADF—Choi Z-stat | −0.34295 | 0.3658 | ||
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality. | ||||
Intermediate ADF test results GHG_J62_J63 | ||||
Cross | ||||
section | Prob. | Lag | Max Lag | Obs |
BG | 0.0232 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
CY | 0.9782 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
DK | 0.1046 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
ES | 0.7682 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
FI | 0.2865 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
HR | 0.5767 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
HU | 0.3843 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
LT | 0.4147 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
LV | 0.0987 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
NO | 0.6489 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
PL | 0.3972 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
RO | 0.8431 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SI | 0.1790 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SK | 0.8794 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
- 8.
- Stationarity test for D_GHG_J62_J63
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process) | ||||
Series: D_GHG_J62_J63 | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:36 | ||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | ||||
Exogenous variables: Individual effects | ||||
Automatic selection of maximum lags | ||||
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 | ||||
Total (balanced) observations: 70 | ||||
Cross-sections included: 14 | ||||
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | ||
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 49.9255 | 0.0066 | ||
ADF—Choi Z-stat | −2.89845 | 0.0019 | ||
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality. | ||||
Intermediate ADF test results D_GHG_J62_J63 | ||||
Cross | ||||
section | Prob. | Lag | Max Lag | Obs |
BG | 0.1026 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
CY | 0.0043 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
DK | 0.1090 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
ES | 0.1878 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
FI | 0.7112 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
HR | 0.2255 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
HU | 0.6095 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
LT | 0.8031 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
LV | 0.1796 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
NO | 0.2071 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
PL | 0.2033 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
RO | 0.1978 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SI | 0.1784 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
SK | 0.0758 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
Appendix E. Results of the Optimal Lag Selection for VAR Model
Estimation for VAR Model initial lag 1 and lag 2 | ||||
Vector Autoregression Estimates | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 22:47 | ||||
Sample (adjusted): 2017 2021 | ||||
Included observations: 43 after adjustments | ||||
Standard errors in ( ) and t-statistics in [ ] | ||||
D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 | |
D_ECC_J(-1) | −0.784751 | −0.426902 | 0.006051 | −0.006514 |
(0.27402) | (0.33291) | (0.12277) | (0.07715) | |
[−2.86382] | [−1.28233] | [0.04928] | [−0.08444] | |
D_ECC_J(-2) | −0.483739 | −0.247852 | 0.103046 | 0.057797 |
(0.24450) | (0.29705) | (0.10955) | (0.06884) | |
[−1.97846] | [−0.83439] | [0.94066] | [0.83961] | |
D_ECC_J62_J63(-1) | 0.234831 | −0.160393 | 0.045947 | 0.018847 |
(0.22114) | (0.26866) | (0.09908) | (0.06226) | |
[1.06192] | [−0.59701] | [0.46375] | [0.30272] | |
D_ECC_J62_J63(-2) | 0.282843 | −0.143164 | −0.035433 | −0.017014 |
(0.17600) | (0.21383) | (0.07886) | (0.04955) | |
[1.60702] | [−0.66953] | [−0.44933] | [−0.34335] | |
D_GHG_J(-1) | −0.544731 | −0.774590 | 1.304885 | 0.783002 |
(0.26155) | (0.31776) | (0.11719) | (0.07364) | |
[−2.08267] | [−2.43764] | [11.1352] | [10.6331] | |
D_GHG_J(-2) | −0.254263 | −0.574195 | −0.399061 | 0.050692 |
(0.36223) | (0.44008) | (0.16229) | (0.10198) | |
[−0.70193] | [−1.30476] | [−2.45890] | [0.49706] | |
D_GHG_J62_J63(-1) | 1.118237 | 1.691401 | −2.518010 | −1.620976 |
(0.57196) | (0.69487) | (0.25626) | (0.16103) | |
[1.95511] | [2.43413] | [−9.82615] | [−10.0664] | |
D_GHG_J62_J63(-2) | 0.738037 | 1.436043 | 0.600590 | 0.238848 |
(0.74924) | (0.91025) | (0.33569) | (0.21094) | |
[0.98505] | [1.57763] | [1.78914] | [1.13229] | |
C | 10.67569 | 11.39476 | −0.180855 | 0.009061 |
(1.57194) | (1.90976) | (0.70429) | (0.44257) | |
[6.79140] | [5.96661] | [−0.25679] | [0.02047] | |
R-squared | 0.371594 | 0.387984 | 0.824235 | 0.803573 |
Adj. R-squared | 0.223734 | 0.243981 | 0.782879 | 0.757355 |
Sum sq. resids | 985.3476 | 1454.360 | 197.7942 | 78.10348 |
S.E. equation | 5.383383 | 6.540281 | 2.411945 | 1.515639 |
F-statistic | 2.513142 | 2.694268 | 19.93003 | 17.38656 |
Log likelihood | −128.3479 | −136.7185 | −93.82394 | −73.84630 |
Akaike AIC | 6.388276 | 6.777603 | 4.782509 | 3.853316 |
Schwarz SC | 6.756899 | 7.146226 | 5.151132 | 4.221940 |
Mean dependent | 6.969767 | 6.588372 | 0.019571 | 0.292662 |
S.D. dependent | 6.110122 | 7.521943 | 5.176261 | 3.076877 |
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) | 2090.107 | |||
Determinant resid covariance | 816.9778 | |||
Log likelihood | −388.2281 | |||
Akaike Information Criterion | 19.73154 | |||
Schwarz Criterion | 21.20603 | |||
Source: Extract from EViews application. |
- Comparative table of criteria values for different lags
Lag | LogL | LR | FPE | AIC | SC | HQ |
0 | −347.0681 | NA | 80671.21 | 22.64956 | 22.83459 | 22.70987 |
1 | −302.6569 | 74.49628 | 13048.53 | 20.81657 | 21.74173 | 21.11815 |
2 | −266.6196 | 51.14962 | 3793.737 | 19.52385 | 21.18912 | 20.06669 |
3 | −224.7853 | 48.58181 * | 833.8395 * | 17.85712 * | 20.26251 * | 18.64122 * |
Note: * indicates the lag selected based on each criterion. Source: Extract from EViews application. |
Appendix F. VAR Model Estimation
Vector Autoregression Estimates | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 23:07 | ||||
Sample (adjusted): 2018 2021 | ||||
Included observations: 31 after adjustments | ||||
Standard errors in ( ) and t-statistics in [ ] | ||||
D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 | |
D_ECC_J(-1) | −0.505515 | 0.115561 | 0.007505 | −0.008608 |
(0.33659) | (0.37025) | (0.11710) | (0.04609) | |
[−1.50189] | [0.31212] | [0.06409] | [−0.18678] | |
D_ECC_J(-2) | −0.365107 | 0.490798 | −0.013105 | 0.014662 |
(0.36393) | (0.40032) | (0.12661) | (0.04983) | |
[−1.00324] | [1.22601] | [−0.10351] | [0.29423] | |
D_ECC_J(-3) | −0.620939 | 0.258829 | 0.145596 | 0.078388 |
(0.39321) | (0.43253) | (0.13680) | (0.05384) | |
[−1.57916] | [0.59841] | [1.06431] | [1.45593] | |
D_ECC_J62_J63(-1) | −0.146619 | −0.700288 | −0.033810 | −0.009552 |
(0.31736) | (0.34910) | (0.11041) | (0.04346) | |
[−0.46199] | [−2.00598] | [−0.30622] | [−0.21981] | |
D_ECC_J62_J63(-2) | 0.031975 | −0.852055 | 0.048486 | 0.020745 |
(0.27978) | (0.30776) | (0.09734) | (0.03831) | |
[0.11429] | [−2.76859] | [0.49813] | [0.54151] | |
D_ECC_J62_J63(-3) | 0.259703 | −0.475059 | −0.119493 | −0.071430 |
(0.28418) | (0.31260) | (0.09887) | (0.03891) | |
[0.91387] | [−1.51971] | [−1.20862] | [−1.83571] | |
D_GHG_J(-1) | 0.501696 | −0.168934 | −0.137641 | −0.138434 |
(1.25290) | (1.37820) | (0.43589) | (0.17155) | |
[0.40043] | [−0.12258] | [−0.31577] | [−0.80694] | |
D_GHG_J(-2) | −0.758175 | −1.257787 | 0.306325 | 0.088377 |
(0.90093) | (0.99102) | (0.31343) | (0.12336) | |
[−0.84155] | [−1.26918] | [0.97731] | [0.71642] | |
D_GHG_J(-3) | −1.431873 | −1.868151 | −0.830034 | −0.537567 |
(1.08882) | (1.19770) | (0.37880) | (0.14909) | |
[−1.31507] | [−1.55978] | [−2.19120] | [−3.60573] | |
D_GHG_J62_J63(-1) | −0.179813 | 1.449850 | −1.169161 | −0.229058 |
(1.69932) | (1.86925) | (0.59120) | (0.23268) | |
[−0.10581] | [0.77563] | [−1.97761] | [−0.98444] | |
D_GHG_J62_J63(-2) | 1.350217 | 2.467031 | −0.326834 | 0.549777 |
(1.74478) | (1.91926) | (0.60701) | (0.23890) | |
[0.77386] | [1.28541] | [−0.53843] | [2.30124] | |
D_GHG_J62_J63(-3) | 4.610241 | 4.997029 | 0.659345 | 0.086112 |
(2.59077) | (2.84985) | (0.90134) | (0.35474) | |
[1.77949] | [1.75344] | [0.73152] | [0.24275] | |
C | 13.76012 | 12.34934 | −0.034583 | 0.174678 |
(2.89498) | (3.18449) | (1.00717) | (0.39640) | |
[4.75309] | [3.87797] | [−0.03434] | [0.44067] | |
R-squared | 0.538744 | 0.638395 | 0.937163 | 0.974535 |
Adj. R-squared | 0.231240 | 0.397324 | 0.895272 | 0.957558 |
Sum sq. resids | 510.2024 | 617.3471 | 61.75320 | 9.565575 |
S.E. equation | 5.323963 | 5.856369 | 1.852224 | 0.728986 |
F-statistic | 1.751990 | 2.648167 | 22.37146 | 57.40325 |
Log likelihood | −87.39981 | −90.35448 | −54.66905 | −25.76194 |
Akaike AIC | 6.477407 | 6.668031 | 4.365745 | 2.500770 |
Schwarz SC | 7.078757 | 7.269380 | 4.967095 | 3.102120 |
Mean dependent | 6.358065 | 5.925806 | −0.421652 | 0.244422 |
S.D. dependent | 6.072110 | 7.543738 | 5.723517 | 3.538498 |
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) | 205.4559 | |||
Determinant resid covariance | 23.35403 | |||
Log likelihood | −224.7853 | |||
Akaike Information Criterion | 17.85712 | |||
Schwarz Criterion | 20.26251 |
Vector Autoregression Estimates | ||||
Date: 01/07/25 Time: 23:45 | ||||
Sample (adjusted): 2016 2021 | ||||
Included observations: 55 after adjustments | ||||
Standard errors in ( ) and t-statistics in [ ] | ||||
D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 | |
D_ECC_J(-1) | −0.533291 | −0.360531 | −0.021690 | −0.003445 |
(0.22105) | (0.27182) | (0.20180) | (0.09347) | |
[−2.41259] | [−1.32637] | [−0.10748] | [−0.03686] | |
D_ECC_J62_J63(-1) | 0.184339 | −0.005008 | −0.025337 | −0.016488 |
(0.17327) | (0.21307) | (0.15819) | (0.07327) | |
[1.06387] | [−0.02351] | [−0.16017] | [−0.22504] | |
D_GHG_J(-1) | −0.452284 | −0.622154 | 1.320497 | 0.763369 |
(0.28812) | (0.35429) | (0.26303) | (0.12183) | |
[−1.56980] | [−1.75604] | [5.02026] | [6.26589] | |
D_GHG_J62_J63(-1) | 0.902853 | 1.285800 | −2.782778 | −1.560723 |
(0.57146) | (0.70272) | (0.52171) | (0.24164) | |
[1.57991] | [1.82975] | [−5.33394] | [−6.45885] | |
C | 7.824657 | 7.712803 | 1.502273 | 0.859993 |
(1.15404) | (1.41911) | (1.05358) | (0.48798) | |
[6.78023] | [5.43494] | [1.42588] | [1.76234] | |
R-squared | 0.172793 | 0.144930 | 0.366093 | 0.463027 |
Adj. R-squared | 0.106616 | 0.076524 | 0.315380 | 0.420069 |
Sum sq. resids | 1845.384 | 2790.478 | 1538.069 | 329.9567 |
S.E. equation | 6.075170 | 7.470580 | 5.546295 | 2.568878 |
F-statistic | 2.611088 | 2.118685 | 7.218978 | 10.77862 |
Log likelihood | −174.6521 | −186.0241 | −169.6427 | −127.3114 |
Akaike AIC | 6.532805 | 6.946330 | 6.350645 | 4.811324 |
Schwarz SC | 6.715290 | 7.128815 | 6.533130 | 4.993808 |
Mean dependent | 5.932727 | 5.798182 | 0.869820 | 0.552945 |
S.D. dependent | 6.427460 | 7.773947 | 6.703139 | 3.373302 |
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) | 39806.14 | |||
Determinant resid covariance | 27188.13 | |||
Log likelihood | −592.9562 | |||
Akaike Information Criterion | 22.28932 | |||
Schwarz Criterion | 23.01926 |
Appendix G. Contegration Test for VECM
Date: 01/08/25 Time: 00:07 | |||||
Sample: 2014 2021 | |||||
Included observations: 43 | |||||
Series: D_ECC_J D_ECC_J62_J63 D_GHG_J D_GHG_J62_J63 | |||||
Lags interval: 1 to 1 | |||||
Selected (0.05 level *) Number of Cointegrating Relations by Model | |||||
Data Trend: | None | None | Linear | Linear | Quadratic |
Test Type | No Intercept | Intercept | Intercept | Intercept | Intercept |
No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Trend | Trend | |
Trace | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Max-Eig | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
* Critical values based on MacKinnon–Haug–Michelis (1999) | |||||
Information Criteria by Rank and Model | |||||
Data Trend: | None | None | Linear | Linear | Quadratic |
Rank or | No Intercept | Intercept | Intercept | Intercept | Intercept |
No. of CEs | No Trend | No Trend | No Trend | Trend | Trend |
Log Likelihood by Rank (rows) and Model (columns) | |||||
0 | −502.3484 | −502.3484 | −500.6799 | −500.6799 | −498.9269 |
1 | −454.2731 | −454.0517 | −452.8995 | −452.1644 | −450.4172 |
2 | −430.5169 | −429.0792 | −428.0761 | −427.1536 | −425.7775 |
3 | −410.2355 | −406.2462 | −405.2662 | −404.0405 | −403.9987 |
4 | −408.6994 | −388.2281 | −388.2281 | −386.7924 | −386.7924 |
Akaike Information Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns) | |||||
0 | 24.10923 | 24.10923 | 24.21767 | 24.21767 | 24.32218 |
1 | 22.24526 | 22.28148 | 22.36742 | 22.37974 | 22.43801 |
2 | 21.51242 | 21.53857 | 21.58494 | 21.63505 | 21.66407 |
3 | 20.94118 | 20.89517 | 20.89610 | 20.97863 | 21.02320 |
4 | 21.24183 | 20.47572 * | 20.47572 * | 20.59500 | 20.59500 |
Schwarz Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns) | |||||
0 | 24.76456 | 24.76456 | 25.03683 | 25.03683 | 25.30518 |
1 | 23.22826 | 23.30543 | 23.51424 | 23.56753 | 23.74867 |
2 | 22.82308 | 22.93115 | 23.05943 | 23.19146 | 23.30240 |
3 | 22.57951 * | 22.65637 | 22.69826 | 22.90366 | 22.98919 |
4 | 23.20782 | 22.60555 | 22.60555 | 22.88865 | 22.88865 |
cd | an | d_ecc_j | d_ecc_j62_j63 | d_ghg_j | d_ghg_j62_j63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
BG | 2015 | 4.6 | 0.9 | −0.18832 | −0.63537 |
BG | 2016 | 5.9 | 10 | 0.11935 | −0.05561 |
BG | 2017 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 0.26185 | 0.1848 |
BG | 2018 | 1.7 | −1.4 | −0.35142 | 0.06383 |
BG | 2020 | 6.2 | 5.7 | −1.07044 | −0.35662 |
BG | 2021 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 0.67825 | 0.08615 |
CY | 2015 | 7.5 | −8.5 | 0.7302 | −0.19508 |
CY | 2016 | −5.9 | −7.2 | −0.14562 | 0.97294 |
CY | 2017 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 1.17856 | 0.6361 |
CY | 2018 | 5.2 | 22.9 | −0.67474 | 0.91666 |
CY | 2020 | 14.7 | 8.4 | −0.20204 | 0.45543 |
CY | 2021 | 6.4 | −4.4 | 0.94575 | 1.01281 |
DK | 2015 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 0.65033 | 0.13863 |
DK | 2016 | −4.6 | −2.9 | 2.29996 | −0.5257 |
DK | 2017 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 0.0395 | 0.1383 |
DK | 2018 | 7 | 5.2 | −1.14301 | −0.20592 |
DK | 2020 | 5.9 | 4.3 | −2.08566 | −0.72539 |
DK | 2021 | −2.4 | −2.6 | 3.42472 | 2.42824 |
HU | 2015 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.39678 | 1.08388 |
HU | 2016 | 11.2 | 14.3 | −2.54127 | −0.2646 |
HU | 2017 | 6.3 | 7.3 | −2.16267 | −0.76863 |
HU | 2018 | 6.6 | 8.2 | −1.5019 | −0.11839 |
HU | 2020 | 8.2 | 8.5 | −3.19712 | −0.10241 |
HU | 2021 | −0.8 | −0.2 | 2.57769 | 2.16868 |
LV | 2015 | 9.7 | 15.4 | 1.72501 | 0.65177 |
LV | 2016 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 0.37211 | 0.29885 |
LV | 2017 | 10.7 | 13.4 | −1.03649 | −0.75255 |
LV | 2018 | 4.9 | 2.2 | −0.02444 | 0.25587 |
LV | 2020 | 9.5 | 8.4 | −0.30178 | 0.10136 |
LV | 2021 | 8.4 | 9 | 0.20541 | 0.30146 |
NO | 2015 | 8.6 | 5.5 | −0.43747 | −0.14235 |
NO | 2016 | −5.7 | −7.3 | −0.51037 | −0.39366 |
NO | 2017 | 8.7 | 11.7 | −1.16415 | −0.82547 |
NO | 2018 | 0.2 | −0.1 | 0.04261 | 0.02516 |
NO | 2020 | 10.5 | 4.1 | −0.79945 | −0.33889 |
NO | 2021 | 1.8 | 6.6 | 0.03643 | 0.06951 |
PL | 2015 | 2.6 | −0.5 | 2.75804 | 1.22662 |
PL | 2016 | 4 | 4.2 | 35.81354 | 15.03975 |
PL | 2017 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 10.88256 | 4.55866 |
PL | 2018 | 7.1 | 7.3 | −2.53063 | 7.98995 |
PL | 2020 | 19.1 | 23.8 | −27.3587 | −15.92775 |
PL | 2021 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 12.74897 | 6.16141 |
RO | 2015 | 7.6 | 3 | 0.16142 | 0.01419 |
RO | 2016 | 8.7 | 14.4 | 0.91716 | 0.11383 |
RO | 2017 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.17258 | 0.18015 |
RO | 2018 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.55409 | 0.0857 |
RO | 2020 | 0.8 | −5.2 | −0.546 | −0.07398 |
RO | 2021 | 14.4 | 19.7 | 1.33883 | 0.18253 |
Kao Residual Cointegration Test | ||||
Series: D_ECC_J D_ECC_J62_J63 D_GHG_J62_J63 D_GHG_J | ||||
Date: 01/08/25 Time: 23:26 | ||||
Sample: 2015 2021 | ||||
Included observations: 48 | ||||
Null Hypothesis: No cointegration | ||||
Trend assumption: No deterministic trend | ||||
User-specified lag length: 2 | ||||
Newey–West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel | ||||
t-Statistic | Prob. | |||
ADF | −3.877019 | 0.0001 | ||
Residual variance | 27.82179 | |||
HAC variance | 9.122475 | |||
Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Equation | ||||
Dependent Variable: D(RESID) | ||||
Method: Least Squares | ||||
Date: 01/08/25 Time: 23:26 | ||||
Sample (adjusted): 2018 2021 | ||||
Included observations: 24 after adjustments | ||||
Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
RESID(−1) | −2.143906 | 0.268877 | −7.973567 | 0.0000 |
D(RESID(−1)) | 1.153003 | 0.231805 | 4.974020 | 0.0001 |
D(RESID(−2)) | 0.982692 | 0.153609 | 6.397350 | 0.0000 |
R-squared | 0.870874 | Mean dependent var | −0.274767 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.858576 | S.D. dependent var | 5.171260 | |
S.E. of regression | 1.944722 | Akaike info criterion | 4.284583 | |
Sum squared resid | 79.42078 | Schwarz Criterion | 4.431840 | |
Log likelihood | −48.41500 | Hannan–Quinn criter. | 4.323651 | |
Durbin–Watson stat | 2.612719 |
Kao Residual Cointegration Test | ||||
Series: D_ECC_J D_ECC_J62_J63 D_GHG_J62_J63 D_GHG_J | ||||
Date: 01/08/25 Time: 23:27 | ||||
Sample: 2015 2021 | ||||
Included observations: 48 | ||||
Null Hypothesis: No cointegration | ||||
Trend assumption: No deterministic trend | ||||
User-specified lag length: 1 | ||||
Newey–West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel | ||||
t-Statistic | Prob. | |||
ADF | −0.275104 | 0.3916 | ||
Residual variance | 27.82179 | |||
HAC variance | 9.122475 | |||
Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Equation | ||||
Dependent Variable: D(RESID) | ||||
Method: Least Squares | ||||
Date: 01/08/25 Time: 23:27 | ||||
Sample (adjusted): 2017 2021 | ||||
Included observations: 32 after adjustments | ||||
Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
RESID(−1) | −1.304942 | 0.308331 | −4.232277 | 0.0002 |
D(RESID(−1)) | 0.013458 | 0.181087 | 0.074317 | 0.9413 |
R-squared | 0.689017 | Mean dependent var | 0.498429 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.678651 | S.D. dependent var | 5.083055 | |
S.E. of regression | 2.881465 | Akaike info criterion | 5.014936 | |
Sum squared resid | 249.0851 | Schwarz Criterion | 5.106544 | |
Log likelihood | −78.23897 | Hannan–Quinn criter. | 5.045302 | |
Durbin–Watson stat | 2.216567 |
Appendix H. Exploring Granger Causality (Granger Causality)
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests | |||
Date: 01/08/25 Time: 23:38 | |||
Sample: 2015 2021 | |||
Lags: 2 | |||
Null Hypothesis: | Obs | F-Statistic | Prob. |
D_ECC_J62_J63 does not Granger Cause D_ECC_J | 32 | 0.72877 | 0.4918 |
D_ECC_J does not Granger Cause D_ECC_J62_J63 | 0.11301 | 0.8936 | |
D_GHG_J does not Granger Cause D_ECC_J | 32 | 0.94206 | 0.4023 |
D_ECC_J does not Granger Cause D_GHG_J | 0.47332 | 0.6280 | |
D_GHG_J62_J63 does not Granger Cause D_ECC_J | 32 | 0.67394 | 0.5181 |
D_ECC_J does not Granger Cause D_GHG_J62_J63 | 0.05273 | 0.9487 | |
D_GHG_J does not Granger Cause D_ECC_J62_J63 | 32 | 0.65771 | 0.5261 |
D_ECC_J62_J63 does not Granger Cause D_GHG_J | 0.37373 | 0.6917 | |
D_GHG_J62_J63 does not Granger Cause D_ECC_J62_J63 | 32 | 0.47959 | 0.6242 |
D_ECC_J62_J63 does not Granger Cause D_GHG_J62_J63 | 0.04238 | 0.9586 | |
D_GHG_J62_J63 does not Granger Cause D_GHG_J | 32 | 91.5921 | 9.E-13 |
D_GHG_J does not Granger Cause D_GHG_J62_J63 | 60.8104 | 1.E-10 | |
Source: Extract from the EViews application. |
Appendix I. VECM Model Estimation
Vector Error Correction Estimates | ||||
Date: 01/09/25 Time: 00:17 | ||||
Sample (adjusted): 2018 2021 | ||||
Included observations: 24 after adjustments | ||||
Standard errors in ( ) and t-statistics in [ ] | ||||
Cointegrating Eq: | CointEq1 | |||
D_ECC_J(−1) | 1.000000 | |||
D_ECC_J62_J63(−1) | −0.925557 | |||
(0.06402) | ||||
[−14.4572] | ||||
D_GHG_J(−1) | −0.797081 | |||
(0.27794) | ||||
[−2.86779] | ||||
D_GHG_J62_J63(−1) | 0.578852 | |||
(0.70151) | ||||
[ 0.82516] | ||||
C | −1.524484 | |||
Error Correction: | D(D_ECC_J) | D(D_ECC_J62_J63) | D(D_GHG_J) | D(D_GHG_J62_J63) |
CointEq1 | 0.338699 | 3.315950 | 0.596205 | 0.321727 |
(0.83485) | (1.18831) | (0.40671) | (0.16403) | |
[0.40570] | [2.79046] | [1.46592] | [1.96138] | |
D(D_ECC_J(-1)) | −0.749599 | −2.554598 | −0.140252 | −0.096373 |
(0.62729) | (0.89288) | (0.30560) | (0.12325) | |
[−1.19497] | [−2.86108] | [−0.45895] | [−0.78194] | |
D(D_ECC_J(-2)) | −0.092804 | −1.353537 | 0.195277 | 0.066864 |
(0.43990) | (0.62614) | (0.21430) | (0.08643) | |
[−0.21097] | [−2.16171] | [0.91122] | [0.77362] | |
D(D_ECC_J62_J63(-1)) | 0.335952 | 1.729586 | 0.312945 | 0.170653 |
(0.52535) | (0.74778) | (0.25593) | (0.10322) | |
[0.63948] | [2.31297] | [1.22276] | [1.65329] | |
D(D_ECC_J62_J63(-2)) | 0.242757 | 1.092570 | 0.022755 | 0.035430 |
(0.34230) | (0.48723) | (0.16676) | (0.06725) | |
[0.70919] | [2.24243] | [0.13645] | [0.52680] | |
D(D_GHG_J(-1)) | −0.500628 | −0.708261 | 1.708966 | 1.063516 |
(0.36083) | (0.51359) | (0.17578) | (0.07089) | |
[−1.38745] | [−1.37903] | [9.72205] | [15.0013] | |
D(D_GHG_J(-2)) | 0.755232 | 1.011657 | 0.856728 | 0.756613 |
(1.11353) | (1.58499) | (0.54248) | (0.21879) | |
[0.67823] | [0.63828] | [1.57929] | [3.45823] | |
D(D_GHG_J62_J63(-1)) | 0.457799 | 2.165128 | −3.837293 | −2.403271 |
(1.12202) | (1.59707) | (0.54661) | (0.22045) | |
[0.40801] | [1.35568] | [−7.02012] | [−10.9014] | |
D(D_GHG_J62_J63(-2)) | −2.048084 | −0.539119 | −2.615340 | −1.379922 |
(2.87592) | (4.09354) | (1.40105) | (0.56506) | |
[−0.71215] | [−0.13170] | [−1.86670] | [−2.44209] | |
C | 0.365684 | 2.634016 | 1.749009 | 1.156925 |
(1.73926) | (2.47564) | (0.84731) | (0.34173) | |
[0.21025] | [1.06397] | [2.06419] | [3.38551] | |
R-squared | 0.607630 | 0.637907 | 0.953395 | 0.982672 |
Adj. R-squared | 0.355392 | 0.405134 | 0.923435 | 0.971532 |
Sum sq. resids | 488.1294 | 988.9635 | 115.8487 | 18.84378 |
S.E. equation | 5.904777 | 8.404775 | 2.876614 | 1.160166 |
F-statistic | 2.408955 | 2.740461 | 31.82205 | 88.21347 |
Log likelihood | −70.20485 | −78.67777 | −52.94530 | −31.15208 |
Akaike AIC | 6.683737 | 7.389814 | 5.245442 | 3.429340 |
Schwarz SC | 7.174593 | 7.880670 | 5.736297 | 3.920195 |
Mean dependent | −0.816667 | −0.975000 | 0.532680 | 0.377476 |
S.D. dependent | 7.354541 | 10.89724 | 10.39600 | 6.876076 |
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) | 325.6230 | |||
Determinant resid covariance | 37.70356 | |||
Log likelihood | −179.7752 | |||
Akaike Information Criterion | 18.64793 | |||
Schwarz Criterion | 20.80769 |
Response of D_ECC_J: | ||||
Period | D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 |
1 | 5.904777 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
2 | 4.080862 | 0.912320 | −1.215265 | 0.279739 |
3 | 5.511055 | 0.845691 | −1.104283 | −0.057171 |
4 | 3.140485 | 0.531352 | −1.096357 | 1.121283 |
5 | 5.070695 | 0.297117 | −0.758507 | −0.393734 |
6 | 3.723105 | −0.326566 | 0.277581 | 0.601588 |
7 | 5.970510 | 0.687541 | −1.433679 | −0.770550 |
8 | 4.281961 | 0.691457 | −0.746992 | 0.917598 |
9 | 4.854481 | 1.526470 | −2.065522 | 0.130106 |
10 | 3.391471 | 0.136174 | 0.064626 | 0.900814 |
Response of D_ECC_J62_J63: | ||||
Period | D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 |
1 | 7.730772 | 3.297788 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
2 | 2.976177 | 1.838223 | −4.423836 | 1.747505 |
3 | 3.042672 | 0.512867 | −1.976354 | 1.343044 |
4 | 3.073332 | −1.402538 | 0.072121 | 0.904113 |
5 | 7.118004 | 0.727696 | 0.879275 | −1.441229 |
6 | 6.302104 | 1.712301 | −2.520719 | 0.513198 |
7 | 4.883750 | 3.608225 | −5.029854 | 1.525054 |
8 | 2.034164 | 1.507570 | −2.060477 | 2.628413 |
9 | 2.621650 | −0.351652 | 0.915320 | 0.381152 |
10 | 5.113962 | −2.438441 | 1.348770 | −0.982245 |
Response of D_GHG_J: | ||||
Period | D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 |
1 | −1.075276 | −1.557919 | 2.166005 | 0.000000 |
2 | 0.579707 | −2.332750 | 2.414303 | −1.494061 |
3 | 1.567548 | −2.040306 | 1.743139 | −1.286118 |
4 | 2.313821 | 0.333171 | −0.387592 | −0.852394 |
5 | 0.619699 | 1.348462 | −0.139020 | 0.426342 |
6 | −1.413197 | −0.052555 | 0.752117 | 0.423882 |
7 | −1.561996 | −3.318138 | 2.753000 | −0.595705 |
8 | 0.959476 | −4.012156 | 2.899308 | −1.911007 |
9 | 3.980611 | −0.834626 | 1.256170 | −2.027618 |
10 | 2.860558 | 3.005723 | −1.317352 | −0.070340 |
Response of D_GHG_J62_J63: | ||||
Period | D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 |
1 | −0.611652 | −0.554097 | 0.694121 | 0.427831 |
2 | 0.224480 | −1.002222 | 0.903353 | −0.520686 |
3 | 0.358527 | −1.225888 | 1.183185 | −0.293409 |
4 | 1.300252 | −0.141392 | −0.128429 | −0.539097 |
5 | 0.468819 | 0.435242 | 0.007936 | 0.340719 |
6 | −0.282621 | 0.339874 | −0.148078 | 0.319052 |
7 | −0.879232 | −1.198692 | 1.165083 | 0.166596 |
8 | 0.020928 | −1.909098 | 1.259758 | −0.600852 |
9 | 1.556119 | −1.064570 | 0.991236 | −0.855961 |
10 | 1.626661 | 0.880031 | −0.419492 | −0.169760 |
Cholesky Ordering: D_ECC_J D_ECC_J62_J63 D_GHG_J D_GHG_J62_J63 |
Variance Decomposition of D_ECC_J: | |||||
Period | S.E. | D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 |
1 | 5.904777 | 100.0000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
2 | 7.342157 | 95.57119 | 1.544000 | 2.739649 | 0.145164 |
3 | 9.285306 | 94.98317 | 1.794916 | 3.127358 | 0.094555 |
4 | 9.940883 | 92.84873 | 1.851685 | 3.944813 | 1.354768 |
5 | 11.19606 | 93.70922 | 1.530202 | 3.568872 | 1.191706 |
6 | 11.82197 | 93.96732 | 1.448767 | 3.256104 | 1.327810 |
7 | 13.36143 | 93.52868 | 1.398938 | 3.700337 | 1.372044 |
8 | 14.09755 | 93.24186 | 1.497228 | 3.604755 | 1.656158 |
9 | 15.13012 | 91.24385 | 2.317711 | 4.993222 | 1.445215 |
10 | 15.53244 | 91.34582 | 2.206885 | 4.739633 | 1.707666 |
Variance Decomposition of D_ECC_J62_J63: | |||||
Period | S.E. | D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 |
1 | 8.404775 | 84.60452 | 15.39548 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
2 | 10.27137 | 65.04436 | 13.51121 | 18.54989 | 2.894545 |
3 | 10.98780 | 64.50696 | 12.02460 | 19.44502 | 4.023419 |
4 | 11.53112 | 65.67482 | 12.39755 | 17.65968 | 4.267955 |
5 | 13.67525 | 73.78738 | 9.097870 | 12.96952 | 4.145232 |
6 | 15.37135 | 75.21134 | 8.441792 | 12.95448 | 3.392386 |
7 | 17.34284 | 67.01351 | 10.96020 | 18.58807 | 3.438218 |
8 | 17.84205 | 64.61578 | 11.06940 | 18.89611 | 5.418701 |
9 | 18.06429 | 65.14191 | 10.83661 | 18.69078 | 5.330712 |
10 | 19.00529 | 66.09136 | 11.43625 | 17.38938 | 5.083015 |
Variance Decomposition of D_GHG_J: | |||||
Period | S.E. | D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 |
1 | 2.876614 | 13.97257 | 29.33099 | 56.69643 | 0.000000 |
2 | 4.702527 | 6.748187 | 35.58342 | 47.57415 | 10.09425 |
3 | 5.781561 | 11.81544 | 35.99449 | 40.56359 | 11.62648 |
4 | 6.306190 | 23.39380 | 30.53378 | 34.47291 | 11.59951 |
5 | 6.493958 | 22.97115 | 33.10538 | 32.55403 | 11.36944 |
6 | 6.701995 | 26.01347 | 31.08818 | 31.82378 | 11.07457 |
7 | 8.142511 | 21.30336 | 37.66765 | 32.99103 | 8.037954 |
8 | 9.766085 | 15.77416 | 43.06225 | 31.74706 | 9.416531 |
9 | 10.84470 | 26.26541 | 35.51460 | 27.08771 | 11.13227 |
10 | 11.68610 | 28.61120 | 37.20001 | 24.59824 | 9.590550 |
Variance Decomposition of D_GHG_J62_J63: | |||||
Period | S.E. | D_ECC_J | D_ECC_J62_J63 | D_GHG_J | D_GHG_J62_J63 |
1 | 1.160166 | 27.79513 | 22.81032 | 35.79565 | 13.59890 |
2 | 1.867615 | 12.17062 | 37.59970 | 37.20917 | 13.02051 |
3 | 2.570086 | 8.372784 | 42.60599 | 40.84236 | 8.178866 |
4 | 2.936513 | 26.01969 | 32.86823 | 31.47672 | 9.635363 |
5 | 3.024647 | 26.92792 | 33.05135 | 29.66976 | 10.35097 |
6 | 3.076947 | 26.86396 | 33.15744 | 28.90133 | 11.07727 |
7 | 3.614234 | 25.38851 | 35.03168 | 31.33873 | 8.241076 |
8 | 4.319235 | 17.77925 | 44.06532 | 30.44990 | 7.705540 |
9 | 4.891403 | 23.98398 | 39.09601 | 27.84948 | 9.070530 |
10 | 5.248914 | 30.43216 | 36.76259 | 24.82366 | 7.981597 |
Cholesky Ordering: D_ECC_J D_ECC_J62_J63 D_GHG_J D_GHG_J62_J63 |
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Variable | Description | Relevance | Source |
---|---|---|---|
E_CC_J | Percentage of enterprises in Information and Communication sector (NACE Rev.2—J) using cloud computing services | Measures the degree of digitalization and the use of the cloud computing services. | [71,81] |
E_CC_J62_J63 | Percentage of enterprises in IT programming consultancy and other information services subsectors (NACE Rev.2—J62 and J63) using cloud computing services | Highlights the uniform adoption of cloud technologies across specialized subsectors | [80,83] |
GHG_J | Greenhouse gas emissions per capita (in CO2 equivalent) for sector NACE Rev.2—J | Measures the overall ecological impact of digitalization | [81] |
GHG_J62_J63 | Greenhouse gas emissions per capita (in CO2 equivalent) for subsectors NACE Rev.2—J62 and J63 | Reflects the energy efficiency of subsectors that use centralized cloud infrastructures | [71,80] |
ECC_J | ECC_J62_J63 | GHG_J | GHG_J62_J63 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | 55.16837 | 56.58125 | 16.30182 | 6.098774 |
Median | 51.45000 | 54.90000 | 12.29563 | 3.548885 |
Maximum | 94.60000 | 97.40000 | 85.58348 | 41.07625 |
Minimum | 15.60000 | 21.80000 | 0.775860 | 0.170920 |
Std. Dev. | 20.21578 | 18.75741 | 16.67535 | 7.477582 |
Skewness | 0.181485 | 0.113451 | 2.298603 | 2.511168 |
Kurtosis | 2.021202 | 2.106907 | 8.954232 | 9.760614 |
Jarque–Bera | 4.449987 | 2.830331 | 231.0643 | 289.6298 |
Probability | 0.108068 | 0.242885 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
Sum | 5406.500 | 4526.500 | 1597.579 | 597.6799 |
Sum Sq. Dev. | 39,641.75 | 27,795.38 | 26,972.52 | 5423.680 |
Observations | 98 | 80 | 98 | 98 |
Variable | Initial Stage | ADF—Fisher Test (p-Value) | Choi Z-Stat Test (p-Value) | Differentiated Variable Stage | ADF—Fisher Test (p-Value) | Choi Z-Stat Test (p-Value) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E_CC_J | Non-stationary | 0.9999 | 0.9995 | Stationary | 0.0004 | 0.0000 |
E_CC_J62_J63 | Non-stationary | 0.5953 | 0.9583 | Stationary | 0.0008 | 0.0001 |
GHG_J | Non-stationary | 0.2298 | 0.3060 | Stationary | 0.0005 | 0.0000 |
GHG_J62_J63 | Non-stationary | 0.3053 | 0.3658 | Stationary | 0.0066 | 0.0019 |
Variable | Coefficient Value | Standard Error | t-Statistics | Comments |
---|---|---|---|---|
D_ECC_J | 1.00000 | The coefficient for D_ECC_J(−1) is equal to 1 because it is set as a reference point in the error correction model (VECM) for the cointegration equation. | ||
D_ECC_J62_J63 | −0.925557 | 0.06402 | −14.4572 | There is a statistically significant negative relationship between D_ECC_J62_J63 and D_ECC_J in the cointegration equation. This suggests that changes in D_ECC_J62_J63 influence the long-run equilibrium of D_ECC_J. |
D_GHG_J | −0.797081 | 0.27794 | −2.86779 | The significant negative relationship indicates that variations in D_GHG_J affect the long-term equilibrium of D_ECC_J. |
D_GHG_J62_J63 | 0.578852 | 0.70151 | 0.82516 | There is no statistically significant relationship between D_GHG_J62_J63 and the long-run equilibrium of D_ECC_J. |
C = −1.524484 | The constant reflects the fixed component of the cointegration relationship and is used to model the long-run equilibrium. |
Variable | Result |
---|---|
D_ECC_J |
|
D_ECC_J62_J63 |
|
D_GHG_J |
|
D_GHG_J62_J63 |
|
Hypothesis | Hypothesis Content | Result | Arguments for Validation |
---|---|---|---|
Hypothesis 1—Granger Causality Between Cloud Computing and GHG Emissions, and Sectoral Interdependence of GHG Emissions | There is statistically significant Granger causality between cloud computing adoption (E_CC) and GHG emissions in the short term and a bidirectional causality for GHG emission across sectors. | Partially Validated | Granger causality tests confirm no significant relationship between E_CC and GHG emissions (p > 0.05 for all cases). However, strong bidirectional causality (p < 0.001) exists between D_GHG_J and D_GHG_J62_J63, indicating interdependence of emissions across sectors. |
Hypothesis 2—Impact of Cloud Computing on Energy and Mass Flows | Cloud computing adoption influences energy and mass flows in the IT and communications sectors. | Validated | Variance decomposition and VECM results demonstrate that cloud computing adoption significantly affects energy and mass flow structures, particularly in IT subsectors (J62_J63). |
Hypothesis 3—Sectoral Differences in the Cloud Computing–GHG Relationship | The relationship between cloud computing services and GHG emissions differs in magnitude between the general communications sector (J) and the IT and information services subsectors (J62_J63). | Validated | Sectoral differences are evident from variance decomposition and impulse response functions, with IT subsectors (J62_J63) showing stronger effects compared to the general sector (J). |
Hypothesis 4—Adjustment in the Cloud Computing–GHG Relationship Across Sectors | The speed and magnitude of adjustment in the relationship between cloud computing services and GHG emissions differ between the general communications sector (J) and the IT and information services subsectors (J62_J63). | Validated | VECM and impulse response functions indicate that IT subsectors (J62_J63) adjust more quickly and exhibit stronger responses to cloud computing adoption compared to the general communications sector (J). |
Hypothesis 5—Optimal Lag for Adjusting the Cloud Computing–GHG Relationship | The optimal lag for the adjustment of GHG emissions in response to cloud computing adoption varies by sector and model specification, with lag 3 being most suitable for long-term equilibrium relationships. | Partially Validated | Lag 3 is optimal for long-term equilibrium in some sectors, as suggested by model stability tests, but shorter lags (e.g., lag 1 or 2) are better suited for short-term dynamics in other sectors. |
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Grigorescu, A.; Lincaru, C.; Pirciog, C.S. The Impact of Cloud Computing on Mass and Energy Flows: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the IT and Communications Sectors at the European Level (2014–2021). Processes 2025, 13, 1808. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13061808
Grigorescu A, Lincaru C, Pirciog CS. The Impact of Cloud Computing on Mass and Energy Flows: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the IT and Communications Sectors at the European Level (2014–2021). Processes. 2025; 13(6):1808. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13061808
Chicago/Turabian StyleGrigorescu, Adriana, Cristina Lincaru, and Camelia Speranta Pirciog. 2025. "The Impact of Cloud Computing on Mass and Energy Flows: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the IT and Communications Sectors at the European Level (2014–2021)" Processes 13, no. 6: 1808. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13061808
APA StyleGrigorescu, A., Lincaru, C., & Pirciog, C. S. (2025). The Impact of Cloud Computing on Mass and Energy Flows: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the IT and Communications Sectors at the European Level (2014–2021). Processes, 13(6), 1808. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13061808