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Open AccessArticle

Experience Prospective Life-Tables for the Algerian Retirees

1
Centre for Research in Applied Economics for Development—CREAD, Algiers 16011, Algeria
2
Institut de Science Financière et d’Assurance—ISFA, Université Claude Bernard, 69007 Lyon, France
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Risks 2019, 7(2), 38; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks7020038
Received: 31 December 2018 / Revised: 22 March 2019 / Accepted: 1 April 2019 / Published: 4 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Perspectives in Actuarial Risk Management)
The aim of this paper is to construct prospective life tables adapted to the experience of Algerian retirees. Mortality data of the retired population are only available for the ages from 50 to 95 years and older and for the period from 2004 to 2013. The use of the conventional prospective mortality models is not supposed to provide robust forecasts given data limitation in terms of either exposure to death risk or data length. To improve forecasting robustness, we use the global population mortality as an external reference. The adjustment of the experience mortality on the reference allows projecting the age-specific death rates calculated based on the experience of the retired population. We propose a generalized version of the Brass-type relational model incorporating a quadratic effect to perform the adjustment. Results show no significant difference for men, either retired or not, but reveal a gap of over three years in the remaining life expectancy at age 50 in favor of retired women compared to those of the global population. View Full-Text
Keywords: forecasting; adjustment; experience mortality; reference mortality; retirees; Algeria forecasting; adjustment; experience mortality; reference mortality; retirees; Algeria
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Flici, F.; Planchet, F. Experience Prospective Life-Tables for the Algerian Retirees. Risks 2019, 7, 38.

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