Abstract
Almost sure bootstrap consistency of the blockwise bootstrap for the Average Value at Risk of single risks is established for strictly stationary -mixing observations. Moreover, almost sure bootstrap consistency of a multiplier bootstrap for the Average Value at Risk of collective risks is established for independent observations. The main results rely on a new functional delta-method for the almost sure bootstrap of uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable statistical functionals, to be presented here. The latter seems to be interesting in its own right.
1. Introduction
One of the most popular risk measures in practice is the so-called Average Value at Risk which is also referred to as Expected Shortfall (see Acerbi and Szekely (2014); Acerbi and Tasche (2002a, 2002b); Emmer et al. (2015) and references therein). For a fixed level , the corresponding Average Value at Risk is the map defined by , where refers to the distribution function of X, is the usual -space associated with some atomless probability space, and
for any with the set of the distribution functions of all . Here, and denotes the left-continuous inverse of F. The statistical functional is sometimes referred to as risk functional associated with . Note that when is continuous at .
In this article, we mainly focus on bootstrap methods for the Average Value at Risk. Before doing so, we briefly review nonparametric estimation techniques and asymptotic results for the Average Value at Risk. Given identically distributed observations () on some probability space with unknown marginal distribution , a natural estimator for is the empirical plug-in estimator
where is the empirical distribution function of and refer to the order statistics of . The second representation in Equation (2) shows that is a specific L-statistic which was already mentioned in Acerbi (2002); Acerbi and Tasche (2002a); Jones and Zitikis (2003).
In particular, if the underlying sequence is strictly stationary and ergodic, classical results of van Zwet (1980) and Gilat and Helmers (1997) show that converges -almost surely to as , i.e., that strong consistency holds. If are i.i.d. and F has a finite second moment and takes the value only once, then a result of Stigler ((Stigler 1974, Theorems 1–2)) yields the asymptotic distribution of the estimation error:
where with , , and ⇝ refers to convergence in distribution (see also Shorack 1972; Shorack and Wellner 1986). In fact, for independent the second summand in the definition of vanishes. Results of Beutner and Zähle (2010) show that Equation (3) still holds if is strictly stationary and -mixing with mixing coefficients and for some . Tsukahara (2013) obtained the same result. A similar result can also be derived from an earlier work by Mehra and Rao (1975), but under a faster decay of the mixing coefficients and under an additional assumption on the dependence structure. We emphasize that the method of proof proposed by Beutner and Zähle is rather flexible, because it easily extends to other weak and strong dependence concepts and other risk measures (see Beutner et al. 2012; Beutner and Zähle 2010, 2016; Krätschmer et al. 2013; Krätschmer and Zähle 2017).
Even in the i.i.d. case the asymptotic variance depends on F in a fairly complex way. For the approximation of the distribution of , bootstrap methods should thus be superior to the method of estimating . However, to the best of our knowledge, theoretical investigations of the bootstrap for the Average Value at Risk seem to be rare. According to Gribkova (2016), a result of Gribkova (2002) yields bootstrap consistency for Efron’s bootstrap when are i.i.d, while Theorem 3 of Helmers et al. (1990) seems not to cover the Average Value at Risk, because there the function J (which plays the role of ) is assumed to be Lipschitz continuous. In these articles, bootstrap consistency is typically proved by first proving consistency of the bootstrap variance and then using this result by showing that upper bounds for the difference between the sampling distribution and the bootstrap distribution converge to zero. Employing different techniques, Beutner and Zähle (2016) established bootstrap consistency in probability for the multiplier bootstrap when are i.i.d. as well as bootstrap consistency in probability for the circular bootstrap when are strictly stationary and -mixing with mixing coefficients and for some and . Recently, Sun and Cheng (2018) established bootstrap consistency in probability for the moving blocks bootstrap when are strictly stationary and -mixing with mixing coefficients and for some , and . Strictly speaking, Sun and Cheng did not consider the Average Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) but the Tail Conditional Expectation in the sense of Acerbi and Tasche (2002a, 2002b).
The contribution of the article at hand is twofold. First, we extend the results of Beutner and Zähle (2016) on the Average Value at Risk from bootstrap consistency in probability to bootstrap consistency almost surely. Second, we establish bootstrap consistency for the Average Value at Risk of collective risks, i.e., for and more general expressions.
The rest of the article is organized as follows. In Section 2, we present and illustrate our main results which are proved in Section 3. Section 3 is followed by the conclusions. The proofs of Section 3 rely on a new functional delta-method for the almost sure bootstrap which seems to be interesting in its own right and which is presented in Appendix B. Roughly speaking, the (functional) delta method studies properties of particular estimators for quantities of the form . Here, H is a known functional, such as the Average Value at Risk functional, and is a possibly infinite dimensional parameter, such as an unknown distribution function. The particular estimators covered by the (functional) delta method are of the form where is an estimator for . In general and in the particular application considered here, the appeal of the (functional) delta method lies in the fact that, once “differentiability” of H (here, the Average Value at Risk functional) is established, the asymptotic error distribution of can immediately be derived from the asymptotic error distribution of (here ). This also applies to the (functional) delta method for the bootstrap where bootstrap consistency of the bootstrapped version of will follow from the respective property of the bootstrapped version of (here ). Thus, if in financial or actuarial applications the data show dependencies for which the asymptotic error distribution and/or bootstrap consistency of plug-in estimators for the Average Value at Risk have not been established yet, it would be enough to check if for these dependencies the asymptotic error distribution and/or bootstrap consistency of is known; thanks to the (functional) delta method the Average Value at Risk functional would inherit these properties. In Appendix A.1, we give results on convergence in distribution for the open-ball -algebra which are needed for the main results, and in Appendix A.2 we prove a delta-method for uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable maps that is the basis for the method of Appendix B. Readers interested in these methods used to prove the main results might wish to first work through Appendix A and Appendix B before reading Section 2 and Section 3.
2. Main Results
2.1. The Case of i.i.d. Observations
Keep the notation of Section 1. Assume that is a sequence of i.i.d. real-valued random variables on some probability space with distribution function F. Let and be a triangular array of nonnegative real-valued random variables on another probability space such that one of the following two settings is met.
- S1.
- The random vector is multinomially distributed according to the parameters n and for every .
- S2.
- for every and , where and is any sequence of nonnegative i.i.d. random variables on with and .
Let and . Setting S1. is nothing but Efron’s boostrap (Efron 1979). If in Setting S2. the distribution of is the exponential distribution with parameter 1, then the resulting scheme is in line with the Bayesian bootstrap of Rubin (1981). Let with .
Theorem 1.
In the setting above assume that for some continuous function with (in particular ), and that F takes the value α only once. Then
and
Theorem 1 is a special case of Corollary 1 below. For the bootstrap Scheme S1. the result of Theorem 1 can be also deduced from Theorem 7 in Gribkova (2002). According to Gribkova (2016), Condition (1) of this theorem is satisfied if there are for some such that J is Hölder continuous on each interval , , and the measure has no mass at the points . For the bootstrap Scheme S2. the result seems to be new.
We now consider the collective risk model. Let and be as above, and let be the counting density of a distribution on . Let denote the set of all distribution functions on , and consider the functional defined by , where refers to the k-fold convolution of F, i.e., and for . If for some , then . Let with and .
Theorem 2.
In the setting above assume that for some (in particular ) and , and that takes the value α only once. Then,
and
Theorem 2 is a special case of Corollary 4 below. Lauer and Zähle (2015, 2017) derive the asymptotic distribution as well as almost sure bootstrap consistency for the Average Value at Risk (and more general risk measures) of when is asymptotically constant, but we do not know any result in the existing literature which is comparable to that of Theorem 2.
2.2. The Case of -Mixing Observations
Keep the notation of Section 1. Assume that is a strictly stationary sequence of -mixing random variables on with distribution function F. As before let . Let be a sequence of integers such that as , and for all . Set for all . Let be a triangular array of random variables on such that are i.i.d. according to the uniform distribution on for every . Let and with
Note that the sequence and the triangular array regarded as families of random variables on the product space are independent. At an informal level, this means that, given a sample , we pick blocks of length and one block of length in the sample , where the start indices are chosen independently and uniformly in the set of indices :
| block 1: | |
| block 2: | |
| ⋮ | |
| block : | |
| block : | . |
The bootstrapped empirical distribution function is then defined to be the distribution function of the discrete probability measure with atoms carrying masses , respectively, where specifies the number of blocks which contain . This is known as the blockwise bootstrap (see, e.g., Bühlmann (1994, 1995) and references therein). Assume that the following assertions hold:
- A1.
- for some (in particular ).
- A2.
- The sequence of random variables is strictly stationary and -mixing with mixing coefficients satisfying for some constants and .
- A3.
- The block length satisfies for some .
Let with , and note that
which can be verified easily. Let with .
Theorem 3.
In the setting above (in particular under A1.–A3.) assume that F takes the value α only once. Then, we have
and
Theorem 3 is a special case of Corollary 1 below. To the best of our knowledge, there does not yet exist any result on almost sure bootstrap consistency for the Average Value at Risk when the underlying data are dependent.
2.3. Applications
2.3.1. Bootstrapping the Down Side Risk of an Asset Price
Let be the price process of an asset. Let us assume that it is induced by an initial state and a sequence of -valued i.i.d. random variables via , . Here, is the return of the asset in between time and time i. For instance, if are the observations of a time-continuous Black–Scholes–Merton model with drift and volatility at the points of the time grid , then the distribution of is the log-normal distribution with parameters and . However, the adequacy of a specific parametric model is usually hard to verify. For this reason, we do not restrict ourselves to any particular parametric structure for the dynamics of .
Let us assume that we can observe the asset prices up to time n, and that we are interested in the Average Value at Risk at level of the negative price change (which specifies the down side risk of the asset) in between time n and . That is, since for any the unconditional distribution of coincides with the factorized conditional distribution of given , we are in fact interested in for the distribution function F of for any fixed . As the random variables are i.i.d. copies of X, we can use as an estimator for and derive from Equation (4) an asymptotic confidence interval at a given level for where one has to estimate by . As the estimator for depends on in a somewhat complex way, the bootstrap confidence interval
at level derived from Equations (4) and (5) is supposed to have a slightly better performance. Here, denotes a t-quantile of (a Monte Carlo approximation of) the distribution of the left-hand side in Equation (5) for fixed . For Equations (4) and (5) it suffices to assume that for some arbitrarily small .
2.3.2. Bootstrapping the Total Risk Premium in Insurance Models
In actuarial mathematics, the collective risk model is frequently used for modeling the total claim distribution of an insurance collective. If the counting density corresponds to the distribution of the random number N of claims caused by the whole collective within one insurance period, and if () denote the i.i.d. sizes of the corresponding claims with marginal distribution F, then is the distribution of the total claim (the latter sum is set to 0 if ). Now, is a suitable insurance premium for the whole collective when the Average Value at Risk at level is considered to be a suitable premium principle.
Assume that p is known, for instance for some fixed , and let be observed historical (i.i.d.) claims with n large. On the one hand, the construction of an exact confidence interval for at level based on is hardly possible. Likewise, the performance of an asymptotic confidence interval at level derived from Equation (6) with (nonparametrically) estimated is typically only moderate. Take into account that depends on the unknown F in a fairly complex way. On the other hand, the bootstrap confidence interval
at level derived from Equation (7) should have a better performance. Here, denotes a t-quantile of (a Monte Carlo approximation of) the distribution of the left-hand side in Equation (7) for fixed .
Note that Theorem 2 ensures that Equations (6) and (7) hold true when the marginal distribution F of the is any log-normal distribution, any Gamma distribution, any Pareto distribution with tail index greater than 2, or any convex combination of one of these distributions with the Dirac measure , and the counting density p corresponds to any Dirac measure with atom in , any binomial distribution, any Poisson distribution, or any geometric distribution. The former distributions are classical examples for the single claim distribution and the latter distributions are classical examples for the claim number distribution.
3. Proofs of Main Results
Here, we prove the results of Section 2. In fact, Theorems 1–3 are special cases of Corollaries 1 and 4. The latter corollaries are proved with the help of the technique introduced in Appendix B.2, which in turn avails the concept of uniform quasi-Hadamard differentiability (see Definition A1 in Appendix B.1).
Keep the notation introduced in Section 1. Let be the space of all cádlág functions v on with finite sup-norm , and be the -algebra on generated by the one-dimensional coordinate projections , , given by . Let be a weight function, i.e., a continuous function being non-increasing on and non-decreasing on . Let be the subspace of consisting of all satisfying and . The latter condition automatically holds when . We equip with the trace -algebra of , and note that this -algebra coincides with the -algebra on generated by the -open balls (see Lemma 4.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016)).
3.1. Average Value at Risk functional
Using the terminology of Part (i) of Definition A1, we obtain the following result.
Proposition 1.
Let and assume that F takes the value α only once. Let be the set of all sequences with pointwise. Moreover, assume that . Then, the map is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to , and the uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative is given by
where as before .
Proposition 1 shows in particular that for any which takes the value only once, the map is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable at F tangentially to (in the sense of Part (ii) of Definition A1) with uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative given by Equation (13).
Proof. (of Proposition 1)
First, note that the map defined in Equation (13) is continuous with respect to , because
holds for every .
Now, let be a quadruple with satisfying pointwise, , satisfying and , and satisfying . It remains to show that
that is,
Let us denote the integrand of the integral in Equation (14) by . In virtue of pointwise, , , and
we have and for every . Thus, for every with , we obtain and
i.e., . Moreover, for every with , we obtain and
i.e., . Since we assumed that F takes the value only once, we can conclude that for Lebesgue-a.e. . Moreover, by the Lipschitz continuity of with Lipschitz constant we have
Since (recall ), the assumption ensures that the latter expression provides a Borel measurable majorant of . Now, the Dominated Convergence theorem implies Equation (14). ☐
As an immediate consequence of Corollary A4, Examples A1 and A2, and Proposition 1, we obtain the following corollary.
Corollary 1.
Let F, , , , and be as in Example A1 (S1. or S2.) or as in Example A2 respectively, and assume that the assumptions discussed in Example A1 or in Example A2 respectively are fulfilled for some weight function ϕ with (in particular ). Moreover, assume that F takes the value α only once. Then,
and
3.2. Compound Distribution Functional
Let be the compound distribution functional introduced in Section 2.1. For any , let the function be defined by and denote by the set of all distribution functions F that satisfy . Using the terminology of Part (ii) of Definition A1, we obtain the following Proposition 2. In the proposition, the functional is restricted to the domain in order to obtain as the corresponding trace. The latter will be important for Corollary 3.
Proposition 2.
Let and . Assume that . Then, the map is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable at F tangentially to with trace . Moreover, the uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative is given by
where as before . In particular, if for some , then
Proposition 2 extends Proposition 4.1 of Pitts (1994). Before we prove the proposition, we note that the proposition together with Corollary A4 and Examples A1 and A2 yields the following corollary.
Corollary 2.
Let F, , , , and be as in Example A1 (S1. or S2.) or as in Example A2 respectively, and assume that the assumptions discussed in Example A1 or in Example A2 respectively are fulfilled for for some . Then, for
and
To ease the exposition of the proof of Proposition 2, we first state a lemma that follows from results given in Pitts (1994). In the sequel we use to denote the function defined by for any measurable function f and any distribution function H of a finite (not necessarily probability) Borel measure on for which is well defined on .
Lemma 1.
Let , and and be any sequences such that and for some . Then, the following two assertions hold.
- (i)
- There exists a constant such that for every
- (ii)
- For every there exists a constant such that for every
Proof.
(i): From Equation (2.4) in Pitts (1994) we have
so that it remains to show that is bounded above uniformly in . The functions and both lie in , because . Along with , this implies (see Lemma 2.1 in Pitts (1994)). Therefore, for some suitable finite constant and all .
(ii): With the help of Lemma 2.3 of Pitts (1994) (along with ), Lemma 2.4 of Pitts (1994), and Equation (2.4) in Pitts (1994), we obtain
It hence remains to show that and are bounded above uniformly in . However, this was already done in the proof of Part (i). ☐
Proof. Proof of Proposition 2.
First, note that for , we have
by Equation (2.1) in Pitts (1994). Moreover, according to Lemma 2.2 in Pitts (1994), we have that the integrals and are finite under the assumptions of the proposition. Hence, can indeed be seen as the trace.
Second, we show -continuity of the map . To this end let and such that . For every , we have
where the first and the second inequality follow from Lemma 2.3 and Equation (2.4) in Pitts (1994) respectively. Hence,
Now, the series converges due to the assumptions, and implies . Thus, , which proves continuity.
Third, let be a quadruple with satisfying , , satisfying and , and satisfying . It remains to show that
To do so, define for a map by
with the usual convention that the sum over the empty set equals zero. We find that for every
where for the third “=” we use the fact that for
By Part (ii) of Lemma reflemma preceding qHD of compound (this lemma can be applied since ) there exists a constant such that for all
Since and , we have for some finite constant and all . Hence, the right-hand side of Equation (17) can be made arbitrarily small by choosing M large enough. That is, can be made arbitrarily small uniformly in by choosing M large enough.
Furthermore, it is demonstrated in the proof of Proposition 4.1 of Pitts (1994) that can be made arbitrarily small by choosing M large enough.
Next, applying again Part (ii) of Lemma 1, we obtain
Using , this term tends to zero as for a given M.
It remains to consider the summand
We show that for M fixed this term can be made arbitrarily small by letting . This would follow if for every given and the expression
could be made arbitrarily small by letting . For every such k and ℓ we can find a linear combination of indicator functions of the form , , which we denote by , such that
for some suitable finite constant depending only on and . The first inequality in Equation (18) is obvious (and holds for any ). The second inequality in Equation (18) is obtained by applying Lemma 2.3 of Pitts (1994) to the first summand (noting that ; recall ), by applying Lemma 4.3 of Pitts (1994) to the second summand (which requires that is as described above), and by applying Lemma 2.3 of Pitts (1994) to the third summand.
We now consider the three summands on the right-hand side of Equation (18) separately. We start with the third term. Since , Lemma 4.2 of Pitts (1994) ensures that we may assume that is chosen such that is arbitrarily small. Hence, for fixed M the third summand in Equation (18) can be made arbitrarily small.
We next consider the the second summand in Equation (18). Obviously,
We start by considering the first summand in Equation (19). In view of Equation (16), it can be written as
Applying Lemma 2.3 of Pitts (1994) with and we obtain
where we applied Part (i) of Lemma 1 to to obtain the last inequality. Hence, for the left-hand side of Equation (20) to go to zero as it suffices to show that as . The latter follows from
where we applied Part (ii) of Lemma 1 with to all summands in . For every k and this expression goes indeed to zero as , because, as mentioned before, is uniformly bounded in , and we have . Next, we consider the second summand in Equation (19). Applying Equation (16) to and and subsequently Part (ii) of Lemma 1 to the summands in , we have
Clearly for every k this term goes to zero 0 as , because as by assumption. This together with the fact that Equation (20) goes to zero 0 as shows that Equation (19) goes to zero in as . Therefore, the second summand in Equation (18) goes to zero as .
It remains to consider the first term in Equation (18). We find
where for the last inequality we used Formula (2.4) of Pitts (1994). In the following, Equation (19) we showed that goes to zero as for every k and . Hence, for every such k and ℓ, it is uniformly bounded in . Therefore, we can make Equation (22) arbitrarily small by making small which, as mentioned above, is possible according to Lemma 4.2 of Pitts (1994). This finishes the proof. ☐
3.3. Composition of Average Value at Risk Functional and Compound Distribution Functional
Here, we consider the composition of the Average Value at Risk functional defined in Equation (1) and the compound distribution functional introduced in Section 2.1. As a consequence of Propositions 1 and 2, we obtain the following Corollary 3. Note that, for any , Lemma 2.2 in Pitts (1994) yields so that the composition is well defined on .
Corollary 3.
Let and assume . Let , and assume that takes the value α only once. Then, the map is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable at F tangentially to , and the uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative is given by , i.e.,
with and as in Proposition 1 and 2, respectively.
Proof.
We intend to apply Lemma A1 to and . To verify that the assumptions of the lemma are fulfilled, we first recall from the comment directly before Corollary 3 that . It remains to show that the Assumptions (a)–(c) of Lemma A1 are fulfilled. According to Proposition 2 we have that for every the functional is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable at F tangentially to with trace , which is the first part of Assumption (b). The second part of Assumption (b) means and follows from
(for which we applied Lemma 2.3 and Inequality (2.4) in Pitts (1994)), the convergence of the latter series (which holds by assumption), and . Further, it follows from Proposition 1 that the map is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable tangentially to at every distribution function of that takes the value only once. This is Assumption (c) of Lemma A1.
It remains to show that Assumption (a) of Lemma A1 also holds true. In the present setting, Assumption (a) means that for every sequence with we have pointwise. We show that we even have . Thus, let . Then,
where we used Equation (16) for the second “=” and applied Part (ii) of Lemma 1 to the summands of to obtain the latter inequality. Since the series converges, we obtain when assuming . ☐
As an immediate consequence of Corollary A4, Examples A1 and A2, and Corollary 3, we obtain the following corollary.
Corollary 4.
Let F, , , , and be as in Example A1 (S1. or S2.) or as in Example A2, respectively, and assume that the assumptions discussed in Example A1 or in Example A2 respectively are fulfilled for for some (in particular ). Moreover, assume and that takes the value α only once. Then,
and
4. Conclusions
In this paper, we consider the sub-additive risk measure Average Value at Risk and presented in Section 2.1 and Section 2.2 results on almost sure bootstrap consistency for the corresponding empirical plug-in estimator based on i.i.d. or strictly stationary, geometrically -mixing observations. Our results supplement those by Beutner and Zähle (2016) on bootstrap consistency in probability and those by Sun and Cheng (2018) on bootstrap consistency in probability for the Tail Conditional Expectation (which is not sub-additive). In Section 2.1, we also look at the case where one is interested in Average Value of Risk in the collective risk model. Note that one might interpret the collective risk model as a pooling of independent risks. In the context of Solvency II, pooling of risks has received increased attention (see, for example, Bølviken and Guillen 2017). However, one should keep in mind that our results of Section 2.1 can typically not be applied in the Solvency II context. In Solvency II applications risks are usually dependent, whereas in the collective risk model the different risks (claims) are assumed to be independent.
Author Contributions
Both authors contributed equllay to all sections of the article.
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Appendix A. Convergence in Distribution °
Let be a metric space and be the -algebra on generated by the open balls , , . We refer to as open-ball σ-algebra. If is separable, then coincides with the Borel -algebra . If is not separable, then might be strictly smaller than and thus a continuous real-valued function on is not necessarily -measurable. Let be the set of all bounded, continuous and -measurable real-valued functions on , and be the set of all probability measures on .
Let be an -valued random variable on some probability space for every . Then, referring to Billingsley (1999, sct. 1.6), the sequence is said to converge in distribution to if
In this case, we write . This is the same as saying that the sequence converges to in the weak topology on ; for details see Appendix A of Beutner and Zähle (2016). It is worth mentioning that two probability measures coincide if for some separable and for all uniformly continuous (see, for instance, (Billingsley 1999, Theorem 6.2)).
In Appendices A–C in Beutner and Zähle (2016), several properties of convergence in distribution (and weak convergence) have been discussed. The following two subsections complement this discussion.
Appendix A.1. Slutsky-Type Results for the Open-Ball σ-Algebra
For a sequence of -valued random variables that are all defined on the same probability space , the sequence is said to converge in probability to if the mappings , , are -measurable and satisfy
In this case, we write . The superscript points to the fact that measurability of the mapping is a requirement of the definition (and not automatically valid). Note, however, that in the specific situation where for some , measurability of the mapping does hold (see Lemma B.3 in Beutner and Zähle (2016)). In addition, note that the measurability always hold when is separable; in this case, we also write instead of .
Theorem A1.
Let and be two sequences of -valued random variables on a common probability space , and assume that the mapping is -measurable for every . Let be an -valued random variable on some probability space with for some separable . Then, and together imply .
Proof.
In view of , we obtain for every fixed
Since f lies in and we assumed , we also have
for every . Thus, which together with the Portmanteau theorem (in the form of (Beutner and Zähle 2016, Theorem A.4)) implies the claim. ☐
Set and let be the -algebra on generated by the open balls with respect to the metric
Recall that , where the inclusion may be strict.
Corollary A1.
Let and be two sequences of -valued random variables on a common probability space . Let be an -valued random variable on some probability space with for some separable . Let . Let be a metric space equipped with the corresponding open-ball σ-algebra . Then, and together imply:
- (i)
- .
- (ii)
- for every continuous and -measurable .
Proof.
Assertion (ii) is an immediate consequence of Assertion (i) and the Continuous Mapping theorem in the form of (Billingsley 1999, Theorem 6.4); take into account that takes values only in and that is separable with respect to . Thus, it suffices to show Assertion (i). First note that we have
Indeed, for every (with the set of all bounded, continuous and -measurable real-valued functions on ) we have by the assumption and the fact that the mapping lies in (the latter was shown in the proof of Theorem 3.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016)).
Second, the distance is -measurable for every , because is -measurable and is -measurable (due to Lemma B.3 in Beutner and Zähle (2016)). Along with , we obtain in particular that . Together with Equation (A2) and Theorem A1 (applied to , , ), this implies ; take into account again that takes values only in and that is separable with respect to . ☐
Corollary A2.
Let be a normed vector space and d be the induced metric defined by . Let and be two sequences of -valued random variables on a common probability space . Let be an -valued random variable on some probability space with for some separable . Let . Assume that the map defined by is -measurable. Then, and together imply .
Proof.
The assertion is an immediate consequence of Corollary A1 and the fact that h is clearly continuous. ☐
Appendix A.2. Delta-Method and Chain Rule for Uniformly Quasi-Hadamard Differentiable Maps
Now, assume that is a subspace of a vector space . Let be a norm on and assume that the metric d is induced by . Let be another vector space and be any subspace. Let be a norm on and be the corresponding open-ball -algebra on . Let denote the null in . Moreover, let and be the -algebra on generated by the open balls with respect to the metric .
Let be a probability space and be any map for every . Recall that and refer to convergence in distribution and convergence in probability, respectively. Moreover, recall Definition A1 of quasi-Hadamard differentiability.
Theorem A2.
Let be a map defined on some . Let be some -separable subset of . Let and define the singleton set . Let be a sequence of positive real numbers tending to ∞, and consider the following conditions:
- (a)
- takes values only in .
- (b)
- takes values only in , is -measurable and satisfiesfor some -valued random variable ξ on some probability space with .
- (c)
- takes values only in and is -measurable.
- (d)
- The map H is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace and uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative .
- (e)
- for all .
- (f)
- The uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative can be extended to such that the extension is continuous at every point of and -measurable.
- (g)
- The map defined by is -measurable.
Then, the following two assertions hold:
- (i)
- If Conditions (a)–(d) hold true, then is -measurable and
- (ii)
- If Conditions (a)–(g) hold true, then
Proof.
The proof is very similar to the proof of Theorem C.4 in Beutner and Zähle (2016).
(i): For every , let and define the map by
Moreover, define the map by
Now, the claim would follow by the extended Continuous Mapping theorem in the form of Theorem C.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) applied to the functions , , and the random variables , , and if we can show that the assumptions of Theorem C.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) are satisfied. First, by Assumption (a) and the last part of Assumption (b), we have and . Second, by Assumption (c), we have that is -measurable. Third, the map is continuous by the definition of the quasi-Hadamard derivative. Thus, is -measurable, because the trace -algebra coincides with the Borel -algebra on (recall that is separable). In particular, is -measurable. Fourth, Condition (a) of Theorem C.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) holds by Assumption (b). Fifth, Condition (b) of Theorem C.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) is ensured by Assumption (d).
(ii): For every , let and be as above and define the map by
Moreover, define the map by
We first show that
For Equation (A5), it suffices to show that the assumption of the extended Continuous Mapping theorem in the form of Theorem C.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) applied to the functions and (as defined above) are satisfied. The claim then follows by Theorem C.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016). First, we have already observed that and . Second, we have seen in the proof of Part (i) that is -measurable, . By Assumption (f), the extended map is -measurable, which implies that is -measurable. Thus, is -measurable (to see this note that, in view of for the coordinate projections on , Theorem 7.4 of Bauer (2001) shows that the map is -measurable if and only if the maps and are -measurable). In particular, the map is -measurable, . Third, we have seen in the proof of Part (i) that the map is -measurable. Thus, the map is -measurable (one can argue as above) and in particular -measurable. Fourth, Condition (a) of Theorem C.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) holds by Assumption (b). Fifth, Condition (b) of Theorem C.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) is ensured by Assumption (d) and the continuity of the extended map at every point of (recall Assumption (f)). Hence, Equation (A5) holds.
By Assumption (g) and the ordinary Continuous Mapping theorem (see (Billingsley 1999, Theorem 6.4)) applied to Equation (A5) and the map , , we now have
i.e.,
The following lemma provides a chain rule for uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable maps (a similar chain rule with different was found in Varron (2015)). To formulate the chain rule, let be a further vector space and be a subspace equipped with a norm .
Lemma A1.
Let and be maps defined on subsets and such that . Let and be subsets of and , respectively. Let and be sets of sequences in and , respectively, and assume that the following three assertions hold.
- (a)
- For every , we have .
- (b)
- H is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace and uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative , and we have .
- (c)
- is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace and uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative .
Then, the map is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace , and the uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative is given by .
Proof.
Obviously, since and is associated with trace , the map can also be associated with trace .
Now, let be a quadruple with , , satisfying as well as , and satisfying . Then,
Note that by assumption, and in particular . By the uniform quasi-Hadamard differentiability of H with respect to tangentially to with trace ,
Moreover, and , because H is associated with trace and . Hence, by the uniform quasi-Hadamard differentiability of with respect to tangentially to , we obtain
This completes the proof. ☐
Appendix B. Delta-Method for the Bootstrap
The functional delta-method is a widely used technique to derive bootstrap consistency for a sequence of plug-in estimators with respect to a map H from bootstrap consistency of the underlying sequence of estimators. An essential limitation of the classical functional delta-method for proving bootstrap consistency in probability (or outer probability) is the condition of Hadamard differentiability on H (see Theorem 3.9.11 of van der Vaart Wellner (1996)). It is commonly acknowledged that Hadamard differentiability fails for many relevant maps H. Recently, it was demonstrated in Beutner and Zähle (2016) that a functional delta-method for the bootstrap in probability can also be proved for quasi-Hadamard differentiable maps H. Quasi-Hadamard differentiability is a weaker notion of “differentiability” than Hadamard differentiability and can be obtained for many relevant statistical functionals H (see, e.g., Beutner et al. 2012; Beutner and Zähle 2010, 2012; Krätschmer et al. 2013; Krätschmer and Zähle 2017). Using the classical functional delta-method to prove almost sure (or outer almost sure) bootstrap consistency for a sequence of plug-in estimators with respect to a map H from almost sure (or outer almost sure) bootstrap consistency of the underlying sequence of estimators requires uniform Hadamard differentiability on H (see Theorem 3.9.11 of van der Vaart Wellner (1996)). In this section, we introduce the notion of uniform quasi-Hadamard differentiability and demonstrate that one can even obtain a functional delta-method for the almost sure bootstrap and uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable maps H.
To explain the background and the contribution of this section more precisely, assume that we are given an estimator for a parameter in a vector space, with n denoting the sample size, and that we are actually interested in the aspect of . Here, H is any map taking values in a vector space. Then, is often a reasonable estimator for . One of the main objects in statistical inference is the distribution of the error , because the error distribution can theoretically be used to derive confidence regions for . However, in applications, the exact specification of the error distribution is often hardly possible or even impossible. A widely used way out is to derive the asymptotic error distribution, i.e., the weak limit of for suitable normalizing constants tending to infinity, and to use as an approximation for for large n. Since usually still depends on the unknown parameter , one should use the notation instead of . In particular, one actually uses as an approximation for for large n.
Not least because of the estimation of the parameter of , the approximation of by is typically only moderate. An often more efficient alternative technique to approximate is the bootstrap. The bootstrap has been introduced by Efron (1979) and many variants of his method have been introduced since then. One may refer to Davison and Hinkley (1997); Efron (1994); Lahiri (2003); Shao and Tu (1995) for general accounts on this topic. The basic idea of the bootstrap is the following. Re-sampling the original sample according to a certain re-sampling mechanism (depending on the particular bootstrap method) one can sometimes construct a so-called bootstrap version of for which the conditional law of “given the sample” has the same weak limit as the law of has. The latter is referred to as bootstrap consistency. Since depends only on the sample and the re-sampling mechanism, one can at least numerically determine the conditional law of “given the sample” by means of a Monte Carlo simulation based on repetitions. The resulting law can then be used as an approximation of , at least for large n.
In applications, the roles of and are often played by a distribution function F and the empirical distribution function of n random variables that are identically distributed according to F, respectively. Not least for this particular setting several results on bootstrap consistency for are known (see also Appendix B.2). The functional delta-method then ensures that bootstrap consistency also holds for when H is suitably differentiable at . Technically speaking, as indicated above, one has to distinguish between two types of bootstrap consistency. First bootstrap consistency in probability for can be associated with
where represents the sample, denotes the conditional law of given the sample , is the bounded Lipschitz distance, and the superscript refers to outer probability. At this point, it is worth pointing out that we consider weak convergence (respectively, convergence in distribution) with respect to the open-ball -algebra, in symbols (respectively, ), as defined in (Billingsley 1999, sct. 6) (see also Dudley 1966, 1967; Pollard 1984; Shorack and Wellner 1986) and that by the Portmanteau theorem A.3 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) weak convergence holds if and only if . Second bootstrap consistency almost surely for means that
In Beutner and Zähle (2016), it has been shown that Equation (A6) follows from the respective analogue for when H is suitably quasi-Hadamard differentiable at . This extends Theorem 3.9.11 of van der Vaart Wellner (1996) which covers only Hadamard differentiable maps. In this section, we show that Equation (A7) follows from the respective analogue for when H is suitably uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable at ; the notion of uniform quasi-Hadamard differentiable is introduced in Definition A1 below. This extends Theorem 3.9.13 of van der Vaart Wellner (1996) which covers only Hadamard differentiable maps.
Appendix B.1. Abstract Delta-Method for the Bootstrap
Theorem A4 provides an abstract delta-method for the almost sure bootstrap. It is based on the notion of uniform quasi-Hadamard differentiability which we introduce first. This sort of differentiability extends the notion of quasi-Hadamard differentiability as introduced in Beutner and Zähle (2010, 2016). The latter corresponds to the differentiability concept in (i) of Definition A1 ahead with and as in (iii) and (v) of this definition. Let and be vector spaces. Let and be subspaces equipped with norms and , respectively. Let
be any map defined on some subset .
Definition A1.
Let be a subset of , and be a set of sequences in .
(i) The map H is said to be uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace if for all and there is some continuous map such that
holds for each quadruple , with , , satisfying as well as , and satisfying . In this case, the map is called uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative of H with respect to tangentially to .
(ii) If consists of all sequences with , , and for some fixed , then we replace the phrase “ with respect to ” by “at θ” and “” by “”.
(iii) If consists only of the constant sequence , , then we skip the phrase “uniformly” and replace the phrase “ with respect to ” by “at θ” and “” by “”. In this case, we may also replace “ for all ” by “ for all ”.
(iv) If , then we skip the phrase “quasi-”.
(v) If , then we skip the phrase “with trace ”.
The conventional notion of uniform Hadamard differentiability as used in Theorem 3.9.11 of van der Vaart Wellner (1996) corresponds to the differentiability concept in (i) with as in (ii), as in (iv), and as in (v). Proposition 1 shows that it is beneficial to refrain from insisting on as in (iv). It was recently discussed in Belloni et al. (2017) that it can be also beneficial to refrain from insisting on the assumption of (ii). For (“non-quasi” case), uniform Hadamard differentiability in the sense of Definition B.1 in Belloni et al. (2017) corresponds to uniform Hadamard differentiability in the sense of our Definition A1 (Parts (i) and (iv)) when is chosen as the set of all sequences in a compact metric space with for which . In Comment B.3 of Belloni et al. (2017), it is illustrated by means of the quantile functional that this notion of differentiability (subject to a suitable choice of ) is strictly weaker than the notion of uniform Hadamard differentiability that was used in the classical delta-method for the almost sure bootstrap, Theorem 3.9.11 in van der Vaart Wellner (1996). Although this shows that the flexibility with respect to in our Definition A1 can be beneficial, it is somehow even more important that we allow for the “quasi” case.
Of course, the smaller the family the weaker the condition of uniform quasi-Hadamard differentiability with respect to . On the other hand, if the set is too small, then Condition (e) in Theorem A4 ahead may fail. That is, for an application of the functional delta-method in the form of Theorem A4 the set should be large enough for Condition (e) to be fulfilled and small enough for being able to establish uniform quasi-Hadamard differentiability with respect to of the map H.
We now turn to the abstract delta-method. As mentioned in Section 1, convergence in distribution will always be considered for the open-ball -algebra. We use the terminology convergence in distribution (symbolically ) for this sort of convergence; for details see Appendix A and Appendices A–C of Beutner and Zähle (2016). In a separable metric space the notion of convergence in distribution boils down to the conventional notion of convergence in distribution for the Borel -algebra. In this case, we use the symbol ⇝ instead of .
Let be a probability space, and be a sequence of maps
Regard as a sample drawn from , and as a statistic derived from . Somewhat unconventionally, we do not (need to) require at this point that is measurable with respect to any -algebra on . Let be another probability space and set
The probability measure represents a random experiment that is run independently of the random sample mechanism . In the sequel, will frequently be regarded as a map defined on the extension of . Let
be any map. Since depends on both the original sample and the outcome of the additional independent random experiment, we may regard as a bootstrapped version of . Moreover, let
be any map. As with , we often regard as a map defined on the extension of . We use together with a scaling sequence to get weak convergence results for . The role of is often played by itself (see Example A1), but sometimes also by a different map (see Example A2). Assume that , , and take values only in .
Let and be the open-ball -algebras on and with respect to the norms and , respectively. Note that coincides with the Borel -algebra on when is separable. The same is true for . Set and let be the -algebra on generated by the open balls with respect to the metric . Recall that , because any -open ball in is the product of two -open balls in .
Theorem A3 is a consequence of Theorem A2 in Appendix A.2 as we assume that takes values only in . The proof of the measurability statement of Theorem A3 is given in the proof of Theorem A4. Theorem A3 is stated here because, together with Theorem A4, it implies almost sure bootstrap consistency whenever the limit is the same in Theorem A3 and Theorem A4.
Theorem A3.
Let be a sequence in and . Let be a separable subspace and assume that . Let be a sequence of positive real numbers with , and assume that the following assertions hold:
- (a)
- takes values only in , is -measurable, and satisfiesfor some -valued random variable ξ on some probability space with .
- (b)
- takes values only in and is -measurable.
- (c)
- H is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace and uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative .
Then, is -measurable and
Theorem A4.
Let be any set of sequences in . Let be a separable subspace and assume that . Let be a sequence of positive real numbers with , and assume that the following assertions hold:
- (a)
- takes values only in , is -measurable, and satisfiesfor some -valued random variable ξ on some probability space with .
- (b)
- takes values only in and is -measurable.
- (c)
- H is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace and uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative .
- (d)
- The uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative can be extended from to such that the extension is -measurable and continuous at every point of .
- (e)
- for -a.e. ω.
- (f)
- The map defined by is -measurable.
Then, is -measurable and
Remark A1.
In Condition (a) of Theorem A4, it is assumed that is -measurable for . Thus, the mapping is -measurable for every fixed . That is, can be seen as an -valued random variable on for every fixed , so that assertion (A10) makes sense. By the same line of reasoning one can regard as an -valued random variable on for every fixed , so that also assertion (A11) makes sense.
Remark A2.
Condition (c) in Theorem A3 (respectively, Theorem A4) assumes that the trace is given by , which implies that the first part of Condition (b) in Theorem A3 (respectively, Theorem A4) is automatically satisfied.
Remark A3.
Condition (f) of Theorem A4 is automatically fulfilled when is separable. Indeed, in this case we have so that every continuous map (such as ) is -measurable.
Proof. Proof. Proof of Theorem A4.
First note that by the assumption imposed on (see Assumption (a)) and Assumption (c) the map is -measurable. Next, note that
By Equation (A10) in Assumption (a) and the Continuous Mapping theorem in the form of (Billingsley 1999, Theorem 6.4) (along with and the continuity of ), we have that for -a.e. . Moreover, for every fixed we have that is -measurable by Assumption (f), and for -a.e. we have
by Part (ii) of Theorem A2 (recall that was assumed to take values only in ), where refers to convergence in probability (see Appendix A.1) and , , play the roles of , , , respectively. Hence, from Corollary A2, we get that Equation (A11) holds. ☐
Appendix B.2. Application to Plug-In Estimators of Statistical Functionals
Let , , be as introduced at the beginning of Section 3. Let be a -separable subspace and assume . Moreover, let be a map defined on a set of distribution functions of finite (not necessarily probability) Borel measures on , where is any vector space. In particular, . In the following, , , , and play the roles of , , , and , respectively. As before, we let be a normed subspace of equipped with the corresponding open-ball -algebra .
Let be a probability space. Let be any sequence and be a sequence of real-valued random variables on . Moreover, let be the empirical distribution function of , which will play the role of . It is defined by
Assume that takes values only in . Let be another probability space and set . Moreover, let be any map. Assume that take values only in . Furthermore, let be any map that takes values only in . In the present setting Theorems A3 and A4 can be reformulated as follows, where we recall from Remark A3 that Condition (f) of Theorem A4 is automatically fulfilled when is separable.
Corollary A3.
Let be a sequence in and . Let be a sequence of positive real numbers with , and assume that the following assertions hold:
- (a)
- takes values only in and satisfiesfor some -valued random variable B on some probability space with .
- (b)
- takes values only in and is -measurable.
- (c)
- H is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace and uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative .
Then, is -measurable and
Note that the measurability assumption in Condition (a) of Theorem A3 is automatically satisfied in the present setting (and is therefore omitted in Condition (a) of Corollary A3). Indeed, is easily seen to be -measurable, because coincides with the trace -algebra of .
Corollary A4.
Let be any set of sequences in . Let be a sequence of positive real numbers with , and assume that the following assertions hold:
- (a)
- takes values only in , is -measurable, andfor some -valued random variable B on some probability space with .
- (b)
- takes values only in and is -measurable.
- (c)
- H is uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable with respect to tangentially to with trace and uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative .
- (d)
- The uniform quasi-Hadamard derivative can be extended from to such that the extension is -measurable, and continuous at every point of .
- (e)
- for -a.e. ω.
- (f)
- The map defined by is -measurable.
Then, is -measurable and
The following examples illustrate and . In Example A1, we have , and in Example A2 may differ from . Examples for uniformly quasi-Hadamard differentiable functionals H can be found in Section 3. In the examples in Section 3.1 and Section 3.3 we have , and in the Example in Section 3.2 we have and for some .
Example A1.
Let be a sequence of i.i.d. real-valued random variables on with distribution function F satisfying , and be given by Equation (A12). Let be a triangular array of nonnegative real-valued random variables on such that Setting S1. or Setting S2. of Section 2.1 is met. Define the map by . Recall that Setting S1. is nothing but Efron’s boostrap (Efron (1979)), and that Setting S2. is in line with the Bayesian bootstrap of Rubin (1981) if is exponentially distribution with parameter 1.
In Section 5.1 in Beutner and Zähle (2016), it was proved with the help of results of Shorack and Wellner (1986) and van der Vaart Wellner (1996) that respectively Condition (a) of Corollary A3 (with ) and Condition (a) of Corollary A4 (with ) hold for and , where is an F-Brownian bridge. Here, can be chosen to be the set of all whose discontinuities are also discontinuities of F. In addition, note that, in view of , Condition (e) holds if is (any subset of) the set of all sequences of distribution functions on satisfying , , and (see, for instance, Theorem 2.1 in Zähle (2014)).
Example A2.
Let be a strictly stationary sequence of β-mixing random variables on with distribution function F, and be given by Equation (A12). Let be a sequence of integers such that as , and for all . Set for all . Let be a triangular array of random variables on such that are i.i.d. according to the uniform distribution on for every . Define the map by with given by Equation (8), and recall from Section 2.2 that this is the blockwise bootstrap. Similar as in Lemma 5.3 in Beutner and Zähle (2016) it follows that , with , takes values only in and is -measurable. That is, the first part of Condition (a) of Corollary A4 holds true for . Now, assume that Assumptions A1.–A3. of Section 2.2 hold true. Then, as discussed in Example 4.4 and Section 5.2 of Beutner and Zähle (2016), it can be derived from a result in Arcones and Yu (1994) that under Assumptions A1. and A2. we have that Condition (a) of Corollary A3 holds for , , and , where is a centered Gaussian process with covariance function . Here, can be chosen to be the set of all whose discontinuities are also discontinuities of F. Moreover, Theorem A5 below shows that under the assumptions A1.–A3. the second part of Condition (a) (i.e., Equation (A14)) and Condition (e) of Corollary A4 hold for with (see also Equation (9)) and the same choice of , B, and , when is the set of all sequences with , , and .
Further examples for Condition (a) in Corollary A4 for dependent observations can, for example, be found in Bühlmann (1994); Naik-Nimbalkar and Rajarshi (1994); Peligrad (1998).
Theorem A5.
In the setting of Example A2 assume that assertions A1.–A3. of Section 2.2 hold, and let be the set of all sequences with , , and . Then, the second part of assertion (a) (i.e., Equation (A14)) and assertion (e) in Corollary A4 hold.
Proof.
Proof of second part of (a): It is enough to show that under assumptions A1.–A3. the Assumptions (A1)–(A4) of Theorem 1 in Bühlmann (1995) hold when the class of functions is . Here, and with for and for . Due to A2. and A3. we only have to verify Assumptions (A3) and (A4) of Theorem 1 in Bühlmann (1995). That is, we show that the following two assertions hold.
- (1)
- There exist constants such that for all .
- (2)
- for the envelope function .
Here, the bracketing number is the minimal number of -brackets with respect to (-norm with respect to ) to cover , where an -bracket with respect to is the set, , of all functions f with for some Borel measurable functions with pointwise and .
(1) We only show that (1) with replaced by holds true. Analogously, one can show that the same holds true for (and therefore for ). On the one hand, since by Assumption (a), we can find for every a finite partition such that
and . On the other hand, using integration by parts we obtain
so that we can find a finite partition such that
and .
Now, let be the partition consisting of all points and , and set
Then, . Moreover,
where we used Minkovski’s inequality and Equation (A15), and that is non-increasing on and . Since F is at least on , we have
due to Equation (A16). Thus, , so that provides an -bracket with respect to . It is moreover obvious that the -brackets , , cover . Thus, for a suitable constant and all .
(2) The envelope function is given by for and by (recall that is continuous) for . Then, under Assumption (a) the integrability condition 2) holds.
Proof of (e): We have to show that -a.s. We only show that
because the analogue for the positive real line can be shown in the same way. Let and be as defined in Equation (A17). By assumption A1. we have , so that similar as above we can find a finite partition such that , , are -brackets with respect to (-norm with respect to F) covering the class introduced above. We proceed in two steps.
To prove Equation (A20), we note that for every there is some such that (see Step 1). Therefore, since is an -bracket with respect to ,
Analogously, we obtain
That is, Equation (A19) holds true.
Step 2. Because of Equation (A19), for Equation (A18) to be true, it suffices to show that
for every . We only show the second convergence in Equation (A21), the first convergence can be shown even easier. We have
The first summand on the right-hand side of
converges -a.s. to 0 by Theorem 1 (ii) (and Application 5, p. 924) in Rio (1995) and our assumption A1. The second summand converges -a.s. to 0 too, which can be seen as follows. From Equation (9), we obtain for n sufficiently large
so that for n sufficiently large
We have seen above that converges -a.s. to the constant . Since converges to ∞ at a slower rate than n (by assumption A3.), it follows that converges -a.s. to 0. Using the same arguments we obtain that converges -a.s. to 0. Hence, converges -a.s. to 0. Analogously, one can show that converges -a.s. to 0. ☐
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