Abstract
We find the asymptotics of the value function maximizing the expected utility of discounted dividend payments of an insurance company whose reserves are modeled as a classical Cramér risk process, with exponentially distributed claims, when the initial reserves tend to infinity. We focus on the power and logarithmic utility functions. We also perform some numerical analysis.
1. Introduction
The problem of identifying the optimal dividend strategy of an insurance company was introduced in the seminal paper of () and mathematically formalized by (). Since then, many authors have analyzed various scenarios for which they proposed optimal dividend strategies.
() assumed that the reserve process of an insurance company follows a classical Cramér-Lundberg risk process given by
where are i.i.d positive random variables with an absolutely continuous distribution function representing the claims; is an independent Poisson process, with intensity modeling the times at which the claims occur; denotes the initial surplus; and is the premium intensity. We further consider the dividend payments, defined via an adapted and nondecreasing process , representing all the accumulated dividend payments up to time t. Then, the regulated process is given by
We observe this regulated process until the time of ruin
The time of ruin of an insurance company depends on the chosen dividend strategy. We assume that the usual net profit condition, , for the underlying Cramér-Lundberg risk process, is fulfilled. Another natural assumption is that no dividends are paid after the ruin.
() and () consider the optimal dividend problem in a Brownian setting. () study the constant barrier under the Cramér-Lundberg model and () under the Lévy model. For related works considering the dividend problem, we refer to (); (); (); (); (); (); (); (); (); (); (); (); (); () and references therein.
Inspired by (), we consider, instead of the classical maximization of the expected value of the discounted dividend payments, the maximization of the expected value of the utility of these payments, for some utility function U. () consider the asymptotic of the expected discounted utility of dividend payments for a Brownian risk process with drift under the assumption that is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure. Under the same assumption of , we perform the asymptotic analysis of the expected utility in a classical compound Poisson risk model, which, due to its jumps, brings an extra level of complexity. As in (), we solve some ’peculiar’ non-homogenous differential equations.
Assuming that the process admits, almost surely, a density, denoted by namely for each ,
we define the target value function as
where is a discount factor, U is a fixed differentiable utility function, which equals 0 on the negative half-line, and represents the expectation with respect to . Here, the density models the intensity of the dividend payments in continuous time, and thus we will be maximizing the value function over all admissible dividend strategies . We assume that the dividend density process is admissible, whenever it is a nonnegative, adapted and cádlág process, and there are no dividends after the ruin, namely , for all . We denote by the set of all admissible strategies .
Moreover, we restrict ourselves to Markov strategies, meaning that, for every , the strategy depends only on the amount of the present reserves. We introduce a non-decreasing function such that
The non-decreasing assumption is justified by the fact that the company should be willing to pay more dividends whenever it has larger reserves. Finally, we assume that the ruin cannot be caused by the dividend payment alone and we choose such that the value function given in (3) is well-defined and finite for all .
The above dividend problem can be used to monitor the financial state of the company. In particular, it can be considered as a signalling device of future prospects. In this paper, we assume that the company has large reserves and therefore by taking the initial value to infinity we can produce a very transparent optimal strategy and hence a very clear and simple value function, which, we believe, is crucial from a management point of view.
For the above dividend problem, one can formulate the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation of the optimal value function (see Section 2). Although impossible to solve this HJB equation explicitly (see, e.g., ()), one can analyze the asymptotic properties of its solutions for large initial reserves. We focus on the asymptotic analysis of such value functions when the claim sizes are exponentially distributed, with utility functions that are either powers or logarithms (see Section 3). We also introduce a numerical algorithm for identifying such value functions (see Section 4).
2. Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman Equation
From now on, we assume that is increasing and strictly concave, such that , and where denotes the derivative of a function f with respect to x. We denote by the set of all admissible strategies bounded above by and let
Using the verification theorem, one can prove the following theorem.
Theorem 1.
If then the value function is differentiable and fulfills the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation:
The proof of the above theorem follows the same steps as the proof of Theorem 3.3 of () and therefore we simply refer to them. Since the set of all possible strategies over which we take the supremum in is smaller than the one for , then one has . We note also that depends on . The goal of the next corollary is to prove that .
Corollary 1.
The optimal value function is differentiable and fulfills the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation:
Proof.
Note that increases monotonically to , for any fixed as unless
where when and when (in this way the ruin is not caused by the dividend payments). The reason for that is that the supremum on the left hand side of (5) is a monotone function and thus converges to the supremum given in (6). To exclude (7), it is sufficient to demonstrate that for sufficiently large , for a fixed , the function tends to zero. Observe that the regulated risk process equals either , or equals 0 until the nearest jump moment, otherwise, at the time of the first jump, after t. Further, if the first jump happens before t, then either the company becomes ruined by this jump/loss or, it continues, but from an initial position/reserve smaller than x, hence collecting a smaller amount of dividends than . We recall that . Thus
where . Therefore, for any , we can find a sufficiently small , such that which tends to zero as , since we assumed that and that This completes the proof. □
Note that the supremum in (6) is attained for the function
We end this section by adding two crucial observations. By considering the fix strategy and the first jump epoch T we have
where the function describes the deterministic trajectory of the risk process (1) up to the first jump time T, that is, From the assumption that , it follows that
Moreover, we have the following lemma.
Lemma 1.
Proof.
Firstly, we demonstrate that . Recall that, from the definition of an admissible strategy, is a nondecreasing function and hence it is enough to prove that is unbounded. Assuming the contrary, that there exists , such that, for all , we have , it implies that for all . Hence
However, this means that is bounded, which contradicts (9). Thus, indeed as . Then
where the last equality in this equation comes from the Inada condition required for the utility function. □
3. Asymptotic Analysis
From now on, we assume that the claims follow an exponential distribution with parameter , that is for all i. This section is dedicated to the asymptotic analysis of the expected utility of dividend payments, for large initial reserves
3.1. Classical Risk Process (1) and Power Utility Function
In this subsection, we consider the classical risk process (1) paired with the power utility function
The supremum in (6) is attained at
and thus, after an integration by parts, the Equation (6) simplifies to
where is the second derivative of v. This is a nonlinear second order ODE. Peano Theorem, see () guarantees the existence of a solution. For uniqueness, we need two boundary conditions. Evaluating in Equation (6), we have a first initial condition,
The derivation of the second condition is described later, in Remark 2. In order to asymptotically analyze the solutions of Equation (12), we transform it into a nonlinear first order ODE, via a Riccati type substitution, namely
Lemma 2.
As ,
Proof.
Let , then using Lemma 1 concludes the proof. □
From , we have that . Substituting into Equation (12), it produces the following equation
which is equivalent with
This is a nonlinear first order ODE without known explicit solutions. We focus on the asymptotic behaviour of the solutions and derive the asymptotic optimal strategy of paying dividends , for a function of the initial reserve.
Note that throughout the paper, .
Theorem 2.
Let , where . Then, as ,
Remark 1.
The assumption that α is rational is not restrictive, because the set of all rational numbers is sufficiently large to model various shapes of the power utility function.
The proof of Theorem 2 is given in Appendix A.
3.2. Classical Risk Process (1) and Logarithmic Utility Function
We consider the classical risk process (1) and the logarithmic utility function
The supremum in the Equation (6) is attained for
and this equation simplifies to
This is a nonlinear second order ODE with the initial condition
For the existence of solutions, see (). Apart from the initial condition above, one more initial condition is required to ensure the uniqueness of solutions. Similarly to the case of the power utility function, the choice of this condition is postponed to Section 4. By a Riccati substitution, we transform Equation (21) into the following nonlinear first order ODE
Theorem 3.
As , we have,
The proof of Theorem 3 is given in Appendix B.
4. Numerical Analysis
In this section, we provide a numerical algorithm for calculating the value function for the classical risk process (1) with exponentially distributed claims and power utility function (10). To do this, we first find . Then, based on the boundary condition (13), we determine and numerically solve Equation (12). Obviously, we could propose a similar algorithm for the logarithmic utility function. The considerations regarding the second boundary condition which we formulate in Remark 2 remain true when considering the logarithmic utility functions.
Note that a similar analysis is presented in (), from which we retrieve some numerical considerations in the case of the power utility, see Table 1 and Figure 1 and Figure 2. Note that () does not present the derivation of the HJB equation nor the analysis of the logarithmic utility function.
Table 1.
Functions and for , , , , and , .
Figure 1.
Functions and for , , , , and , .
Figure 2.
Functions and for , , , , and , .
Remark 2.
The choice of is crucial in the context of the optimality of the solution of the HJB equation. Indeed, if we choose and it is too big, then and go to infinity as . In fact, by (11) the discounted cumulative dividends go to 0 (see Table 2). This situation corresponds to a bubble, meaning that the value of the company is not increased by the dividend payments and we cannot derive an optimal solution.
Table 2.
Functions and for , , , , and , .
To find we propose the following algorithm.
- Set initial value ,
- From the equality (13) derive initial value ;
- Solve numerically the differential Equation (12) with the initial condition ;
- Calculate using ;
- Using the least squares method, approximate be the linear function . Because of our results from Theorem 2, we assume that is a linear function;
- Let be a trajectory of the regulated process starting from 0 until the first time claim arrival T. Hencei.e.,
- Using the least squares method, approximate by a function of the form . Because of our results from Theorem 2, we assume that is a power function;
- Calculatewhere .
- Calculate the value ;
- Repeat until for fixed .
If we choose hence also correctly, then observing the regulated process right after the first jump occurs, the left hand side A of (28) gives the true estimator of . Hence, A will approximate a. In practice, we should look for the correct a changing by some small fixed value until for a prescribed precision .
We apply the above procedure in a ten points least square algorithm to the data given in Figure 2. The results are described in the Figure 3 and Figure 4 and the Table 3. At the beginning, we chose . We notice that for , we have a bubble. As per Remark 2, we cannot derive an optimal solution. Thus, the values of b are not greater than .
Figure 3.
Functions , and trajectory for , , , , and , .
Figure 4.
Functions and for , , , , and , .
Table 3.
The values of initial conditions obtained from procedure of finding (c. = correct, t.b. = too big, t.s. = too small).
We start from the value for b and observe the difference . Then, we reduce b by d. We noticed that the difference is getting smaller as we are decreasing b. We stop the above procedure when because then for . Similarly, we can check that all the values of b less that are too small. Then, successively, we decrease d to and then to . By repeating the above procedure, we can find the “correct” a. For example, if we choose then . Table 3 explains how the algorithm works. It contains the results of each step of the loop of this algorithm until . Thus, the “correct” value of a is .
Let us recall that our main goal was to derive the asymptotic behavious of the value function for large initial reserves x and to identify its corresponding optimal strategy. The methodology was based on comparing the asymptotic behaviours of components of the HJB equation. This approach produces a very simple solution that can be used instead of numerically solving the HJB equation.
Still, to compare the asymptotics with the exact values of the value function, we propose a numerical algorithm for solving HJB equations. Using it, we can observe that the asymptotic values are very close to the true ones. In particular, Figure 3 shows that the optimal strategy of paying dividends with intensity in the case of the power-type utility function is asymptotically linear as (18) suggests. What is interesting, it that this is true even for small values of reserves (starting from ). We have observed that this is true for other sets of parameters, which is very promising.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization, Z.P.; methodology, S.B., C.C., Z.P.; software, S.B.; formal analysis, S.B., C.C., Z.P.; investigation, S.B., Z.P.; writing—original draft preparation, S.B.; writing—review and editing, Z.P., C.C.; visualization, S.B.; project administration, Z.P.; funding acquisition, Z.P. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research was funded by the Polish National Science Centre grant number 2021/41/B/HS4/00599. This research was funded by the funds granted to the Cracow University of Economics, within the framework of the POTENTIAL Program, project number 031/EIM/2023/POT.
Data Availability Statement
Data sharing is not applicable to this article.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Correction Statement
This article has been republished with a minor correction to resolve spelling and grammatical errors in article title and main text, also the Funding statement. This change does not affect the scientific content of the article.
Appendix A. Proof of Theorem 2
Proof.
When , the Equation (14) has the following form:
If we make the substitution , then , and furthermore
If we multiply both sides of the equation by , we obtain
specifically, an equation of the form
where are polynomials in v and z. Recall that, from (9), . Any term on the left-hand side of (A2) is of the form or . () proved that if two functions (where denote the class of Hardy functions) then the set of all terms on the left-hand side of Equation (A2) is totally ordered with respect to the relation ⪰, where , for means that either or as . In other words, heuristically, we can order all terms (which are functions of v) according to the speed that they tends to infinity as . () shows that in this set exist two terms of the same order; namely, their quotient tends to a finite limit for . Using this result, we can derive the asymptotic behaviour of the solutions of Equation (A2).
Firstly, note that . Because of that, we note that in the Equation (A1), the term is of a smaller order than the other terms, which contain . Similarly, the term has a smaller order than the other terms of Equation (A1), which do not contain . Since we know that there exists two terms of the Equation (A1) of the same order, we have three possibilities to produce the asymptotic behaviour of a solution v of the Equation (A1):
- (a)
- and ;
- (b)
- and ;
- (c)
- and .
Lemma A1.
Only the case (a) above produces a feasible asymptotic behaviour.
Proof.
Note that in case (a), both terms have the same order. Indeed, let
Denote
where , which reduces to
Since , this becomes
Placing the above asymptotics into Equation (A1) and dividing by gives . Finally, we obtain the following asymptotics of :
Obviously, in this case for , as required.
Similarly, in case (b), we have
Following the same steps as in case (a), let
where This reduces to
which after integration becomes
From Karamata Theorem (see ()) , leading to
for . However, for , we have as , which contradicts the assumption that for . Thus, this is not acceptable.
In case (c), we have
Introducing
as , this simplifies into
We will distinguish two cases. Using the same arguments as before, with respect to Karamata arguments given in (), for , we encounter two possible asymptotics:
- I.
- If , then, via the separation of variables, we have
- II.
- If , then a simple integration leads to
In both of the above cases, c is a constant and its appearance is a consequence of the lack of uniqueness of the solutions of Equation (A4) due to the lack of sufficient boundary conditions for z.
Note that in the first case, the asymptotics of z makes sense only if because otherwise for , leading to a contradiction. In both cases, after substituting the above asymptotics into Equation (A1), the term including dominates any other term. Dividing both sides of Equation (A1) by this asymptotically dominant element leads to the false identity . □
We continue the proof of Theorem 2. From Lemma A1, the asymptotic solution of z is given by (A3). When substituting , the asymptotic behavior of is given by
which, for , is equivalent to
Recall that . Hence
We can now solve (via a separation of variables) the equation
deriving for any constant c. Applying classical Karamata’s arguments leads to as This produces (16). Using (11) completes the proof. □
Appendix B. Proof of Theorem 3
Proof.
We use similar arguments as in the proof of Theorem 2. In fact, one can derive (A2), with the main difference that terms of the form and will appear in the expressions of P and To satisfy the eliminating procedure given by (), we mimic all the arguments from (). Thus, one can conclude that also in the case of the logarithmic utility function there exists two of the terms of the Equation (23) of the same order. Now, note that in the Equation (23), the term is of a smaller order than . Similarly, the term is of a smaller order than the other elements, which do not contain . We then have three possibilities:
- (a)
- and ;
- (b)
- and ;
- (c)
- and .
In case (a)
gives
When , , thus contradicting Lemma 1 ( when ).
In case (b) we have
Let
with This is equivalent to
which after integration from 0 to v, leads to
namely
Using the direct half of Karamata Theorem (see ()), we have that as ,
equivalent to
Thus, we obtain a contradiction, since the right hand side converges to zero as , whereas the left hand side converges to .
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