Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Estimating Human Mobility Patterns in Mainland China
2.2.1. Overview of the Methodology
2.2.2. Model
2.3. Modeling the Spread of Epidemics Using Human Mobility Data
3. Results
4. Discussion
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Appendix B
Order Number | Prefecture Code | Prefecture Name | Source/Destination Prefecture | Proportion (%) | Date | Move Type |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 110000 | Beijing | Langfang | 13.74 | 2020-01-02 | Move in |
2 | 110000 | Beijing | Baoding | 7.83 | 2020-01-02 | Move in |
… | ||||||
100 | 110000 | Beijing | Foshan | 0.16 | 2020-01-02 | Move in |
1 | 110000 | Beijing | Langfang | 9.27 | 2020-01-02 | Move out |
2 | 110000 | Beijing | Baoding | 7.12 | 2020-01-02 | Move out |
… | ||||||
100 | 110000 | Beijing | Mudanjiang | 0.19 | 2020-01-02 | Move out |
Appendix C
Parameters | Notation | Values | Source | Interpretations |
---|---|---|---|---|
probability of transmission | 0.028964 | CNLP | probability of transmission per effective contact | |
number of contacts | 21.332 | CNLP | number of effective contacts in 1st period | |
7.3657 | CNLP | number of effective contacts in 2nd period | ||
proportion of isolation: | 3.6818 | CNLP | coefficient of Sigmoid function | |
0.63232 | CNLP | coefficient of Sigmoid function | ||
coefficient of difference | 0.25175 | CNLP | coefficient of difference between and | |
rate of transformation between compartments | 0.071429 | [44] | rate at which the quarantined uninfected were released | |
0.20000 | [46] | rate at which the infected from to | ||
0.073912 | CNLP | rate at which person from to in 1st period | ||
0.18210 | CNLP | rate at which person from to in 2nd period | ||
0.017459 | CNLP | rate at which person from to in 1st period | ||
0.42601 | CNLP | rate at which person from to in 2nd period | ||
0.095992 | CNLP | rate at which the infected from to | ||
proportion | 0.51317 | CNLP | proportion of symptomatic infected individuals that can travel normally | |
7.9 × 104 | CNLP | local minimum of error |
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Li, Z.; Li, H.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, C. Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease. Healthcare 2021, 9, 1224. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9091224
Li Z, Li H, Zhang X, Zhao C. Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease. Healthcare. 2021; 9(9):1224. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9091224
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Zhengyan, Huichun Li, Xue Zhang, and Chengli Zhao. 2021. "Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease" Healthcare 9, no. 9: 1224. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9091224