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Article

A Bayes Decision Rule to Assist Policymakers during a Pandemic

1
Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China
2
Department of Information, Risk and Operations Management, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas in Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
3
Department of Asian and Policy Studies, The Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
4
Department of Economics, University of Texas in Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Pedram Sendi and Mustafa Z. Younis
Healthcare 2021, 9(8), 1023; https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9081023
Received: 18 June 2021 / Revised: 20 July 2021 / Accepted: 6 August 2021 / Published: 9 August 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Health Economics & Finance and Global Public Health)
A new decision rule based on net benefit per capita is proposed and exemplified with the aim of assisting policymakers in deciding whether to lockdown or reopen an economy—fully or partially—amidst a pandemic. Bayesian econometric models using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to quantify this rule, which is illustrated via several sensitivity analyses. While we use COVID-19 data from the United States to demonstrate the ideas, our approach is invariant to the choice of pandemic and/or country. The actions suggested by our decision rule are consistent with the closing and reopening of the economies made by policymakers in Florida, Texas, and New York; these states were selected to exemplify the methodology since they capture the broad spectrum of COVID-19 outcomes in the U.S. View Full-Text
Keywords: Bayesian inference; decisions; employment; mortality rates; net benefit; sensitivity analysis Bayesian inference; decisions; employment; mortality rates; net benefit; sensitivity analysis
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MDPI and ACS Style

Cao, K.-H.; Damien, P.; Woo, C.-K.; Zarnikau, J. A Bayes Decision Rule to Assist Policymakers during a Pandemic. Healthcare 2021, 9, 1023. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9081023

AMA Style

Cao K-H, Damien P, Woo C-K, Zarnikau J. A Bayes Decision Rule to Assist Policymakers during a Pandemic. Healthcare. 2021; 9(8):1023. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9081023

Chicago/Turabian Style

Cao, Kang-Hua, Paul Damien, Chi-Keung Woo, and Jay Zarnikau. 2021. "A Bayes Decision Rule to Assist Policymakers during a Pandemic" Healthcare 9, no. 8: 1023. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9081023

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