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Article

SARS-CoV-2 Spread Forecast Dynamic Model Validation through Digital Twin Approach, Catalonia Case Study

1
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
2
Open University of Catalonia, Computer Science, Multimedia and Telecommunications Studies, 08860 Barcelona, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Maria Luminița and Catalin I. Pruncu
Mathematics 2021, 9(14), 1660; https://doi.org/10.3390/math9141660
Received: 5 June 2021 / Revised: 7 July 2021 / Accepted: 12 July 2021 / Published: 14 July 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modeling and Simulation in Mechanics and Dynamic Systems)
The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 modeling is a challenging problem because of its complex nature and lack of information regarding certain aspects. In this paper, we explore a Digital Twin approach to model the pandemic situation in Catalonia. The Digital Twin is composed of three different dynamic models used to perform the validations by a Model Comparison approach. We detail how we use this approach to obtain knowledge regarding the effects of the nonpharmaceutical interventions and the problems we faced during the modeling process. We use Specification and Description Language (SDL) to represent the compartmental forecasting model for the SARS-CoV-2. Its graphical notation simplifies the different specialists’ understanding of the model hypotheses, which must be validated continuously following a Solution Validation approach. This model allows the successful forecasting of different scenarios for Catalonia. We present some formalization details, discuss the validation process and present some results obtained from the validation model discussion, which becomes a digital twin of the pandemic in Catalonia. View Full-Text
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; SEIRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered and Death); SDL; Catalonia SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; SEIRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered and Death); SDL; Catalonia
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MDPI and ACS Style

Fonseca i Casas, P.; Garcia i Subirana, J.; García i Carrasco, V.; Pi i Palomés, X. SARS-CoV-2 Spread Forecast Dynamic Model Validation through Digital Twin Approach, Catalonia Case Study. Mathematics 2021, 9, 1660. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9141660

AMA Style

Fonseca i Casas P, Garcia i Subirana J, García i Carrasco V, Pi i Palomés X. SARS-CoV-2 Spread Forecast Dynamic Model Validation through Digital Twin Approach, Catalonia Case Study. Mathematics. 2021; 9(14):1660. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9141660

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fonseca i Casas, Pau, Joan Garcia i Subirana, Víctor García i Carrasco, and Xavier Pi i Palomés. 2021. "SARS-CoV-2 Spread Forecast Dynamic Model Validation through Digital Twin Approach, Catalonia Case Study" Mathematics 9, no. 14: 1660. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9141660

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