Bayesian Inference on the Impact of Serious Life Events on Insomnia and Obesity
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- We investigate the joint effects of serious life events on insomnia and obesity using rich, nationally representative longitudinal survey data from Australia.
- In contrast to most existing studies that model outcomes separately, we jointly model a continuous outcome (BMI) and a categorical outcome (insomnia). This framework allows for a more comprehensive understanding of how serious life events influence both conditions, offering insights that can inform integrated public health interventions.
- We employ a Bayesian estimation approach using a particle Metropolis-within-Gibbs (PMwG) sampler with an embedded Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) proposal, enabling efficient estimation in complex random effects panel data models. The proposed framework is broadly applicable to a wide range of settings involving both discrete and continuous dependent variables, beyond the specific context of insomnia and obesity.
2. Data
2.1. Insomnia
2.2. Obesity
2.3. Life Shock Events
2.4. Other Control Variables
3. Longitudinal Random Effects Panel Data Models
3.1. Bivariate Random Effects Probit Panel Data Model
3.2. Mixed Marginal Bivariate Random Effects Panel Data Model
4. Bayesian Inference
4.1. Target Distribution
4.2. Particle Metropolis-Within-Gibbs (PMwG) Sampling
Algorithm 1 PMwG sampling scheme for random effects panel data models in Section 3 |
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Algorithm 2 Conditional Monte Carlo Algorithm |
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4.3. Sampling High-Dimensional Regression Coefficients Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Proposal
Algorithm 3 One step of the Leapfrog algorithm, Leapfrog() |
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Algorithm 4 One iteration of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo |
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5. Average Partial Effects
6. Simulation Study
- For , we generate a proposal and accept the proposal with probability
- The PMwG sampler produces well-mixing Markov chains and demonstrates evidence of convergence.
- The PMwG sampler accurately recovers the true regression parameters in high-dimensional settings with 49 continuous and 49 categorical covariates.
- The standard MCMC algorithm exhibits poor mixing and lack of convergence, and fails to recover the true parameter values.
7. Results and Discussion
7.1. Main Result
7.2. Sensitivity Checks
7.3. Average Partial Effects
7.4. Heterogeneity Analysis
8. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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2013 | 2017 | 2021 | |
---|---|---|---|
insomnia symptoms | 0.0804 | 0.0966 | 0.1005 |
no insomnia symptoms | 0.9196 | 0.9034 | 0.8995 |
Sample sizes | 10,728 | 11,412 | 11,427 |
Variable | Brief Description | Mean | Std | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
gave birth | =1 if giving birth to a baby | 0.0381 | 0.1915 | 0 | 1 |
death of family member | =1 if suffering from death of family members | 0.1144 | 0.3183 | 0 | 1 |
death of close friend | =1 if suffering from death of a close friend | 0.1027 | 0.3036 | 0 | 1 |
personal injury | =1 if suffering from serious personal injury to self | 0.0817 | 0.2738 | 0 | 1 |
injury to family member | =1 if suffering from serious personal injury | 0.1360 | 0.3428 | 0 | 1 |
got married | =1 if getting married | 0.0189 | 0.1363 | 0 | 1 |
changed residence | =1 if changing residence | 0.1698 | 0.3754 | 0 | 1 |
victim of property crime | =1 if being a victim of property crime | 0.0299 | 0.1702 | 0 | 1 |
victim of physical violence | =1 if being a victim of physical violence | 0.0132 | 0.1141 | 0 | 1 |
promoted at work | =1 if being promoted at work | 0.0666 | 0.2493 | 0 | 1 |
back with spouse | =1 if getting back with spouse | 0.0087 | 0.0929 | 0 | 1 |
separated from spouse | =1 if being separated from spouse | 0.0349 | 0.1835 | 0 | 1 |
death of spouse/child | =1 if suffering from a death of spouse/child | 0.0063 | 0.0794 | 0 | 1 |
major impr. financial | =1 if experiencing major improvement in finance | 0.0301 | 0.1499 | 0 | 1 |
major worse financial | =1 if experiencing major worsening in finance | 0.0230 | 0.1499 | 0 | 1 |
detained in jail | =1 if being detained in jail | 0.0022 | 0.0472 | 0 | 1 |
close family detained in jail | =1 if family member being detained in jail | 0.0159 | 0.1252 | 0 | 1 |
pregnancy | =1 if getting pregnant | 0.0587 | 0.2352 | 0 | 1 |
retired from workforce | =1 if being retired from workforce | 0.0200 | 0.1401 | 0 | 1 |
fired or made redundant | =1 if being fired | 0.0313 | 0.1741 | 0 | 1 |
changed jobs | =1 if changing jobs | 0.1383 | 0.3452 | 0 | 1 |
overweight | =1 if | 0.3367 | 0.4726 | 0 | 1 |
extreme | =1 if | 0.1679 | 0.3738 | 0 | 1 |
severe | =1 if | 0.0657 | 0.2477 | 0 | 1 |
very severe | =1 if | 0.0386 | 0.1927 | 0 | 1 |
BMI | Body Mass Index | 27.3363 | 6.0579 | 11.4000 | 75.6000 |
insomnia | =1 if insomnia | 0.2775 | 0.4478 | 0 | 1 |
age | age of the individuals | 43.88 | 18.67 | 15 | 101 |
income | log of household income | 11.37 | 0.75 | 3.43 | 13.76 |
postgrad | =1 if masters or doctorate | 0.11 | 0.31 | 0 | 1 |
bachelor/grad diploma | =1 if bachelor or grad. diploma | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0 | 1 |
marriage/de facto | =1 if marriage or de facto | 0.63 | 0.48 | 0 | 1 |
separated/divorced/widow | =1 if separated, divorced, or widow | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0 | 1 |
male | =1 if male | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
Aborigin | =1 if Aborigin or Torres Strait Islander or both | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0 | 1 |
smoking | =1 if smoker | 0.17 | 0.37 | 0 | 1 |
drinking | =1 if drinker | 0.82 | 0.38 | 0 | 1 |
sleep medicine | =1 if uses sleep meds at least once a week | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0 | 1 |
physical activity | =1 if participates in a physical activity at least once a week | 0.74 | 0.44 | 0 | 1 |
measure of psychological distress | Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale | 16.68 | 6.95 | 10 | 50 |
mental health | SF-36 mental health score | 72.66 | 17.73 | 4 | 100 |
Type of Obesity | 2013 | 2017 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|
overweight | 0.334 | 0.339 | 0.335 |
extreme | 0.162 | 0.169 | 0.173 |
severe | 0.056 | 0.064 | 0.076 |
very severe | 0.028 | 0.037 | 0.050 |
sample sizes | 10,728 | 11,412 | 11,427 |
Obesity Classes | Sample Estimates | Mixed Marginal |
---|---|---|
no insomnia and not obese () | 0.295 | 0.287 (0.281, 0.292) (0.280, 0.296) (0.278, 0.297) |
insomnia and not obese () | 0.096 | 0.090 (0.086, 0.095) (0.085, 0.096) (0.084, 0.097) |
no insomnia and obese () | 0.427 | 0.435 (0.429, 0.442) (0.426, 0.443) (0.425, 0.447) |
insomnia and obese () | 0.182 | 0.186 (0.181, 0.192) (0.180, 0.193) (0.179, 0.195) |
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Insomnia | Obesity | Insomnia | Obesity | |
Positive events | 0.052 0.025 (−0.012, 0.115) ** (0.002, 0.101) (0.010, 0.092) | 0.011 0.016 (−0.029, 0.052) (−0.020, 0.041) (−0.016, 0.037) | 0.057 0.026 (−0.014, 0.118) ** (0.005, 0.107) (0.015, 0.100) | 0.014 0.017 (−0.025, 0.061) (−0.017, 0.047) (−0.013, 0.042) |
Negative events | 0.088 0.022 (0.033, 0.146) *** (0.049, 0.132) (0.054, 0.124) | 0.014 0.013 (−0.018, 0.047) (−0.010, 0.040) (−0.006, 0.036) | 0.093 0.022 (0.038, 0.151) *** (0.048, 0.138) (0.055, 0.130) | 0.007 0.014 (−0.033, 0.043) (−0.021, 0.034) (−0.016, 0.030) |
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Individual FE | No | No | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Insomnia | Obesity | Insomnia | Obesity | |
Got married | ** (0.078) | 0.009 (0.046) | * (0.083) | 0.003 (0.048) |
Got back together | (0.110) | (0.070) | (0.121) | (0.077) |
Pregnancy | 0.294 *** (0.057) | 0.110 *** (0.033) | 0.323 *** (0.059) | 0.123 *** (0.038) |
Birth/adoption of new child | 0.109 * (0.064) | (0.041) | 0.119 * (0.071) | (0.044) |
Changed jobs | (0.033) | (0.019) | (0.034) | (0.021) |
Promoted at work | (0.043) | (0.025) | (0.046) | 0.004 (0.028) |
Major improvement in finances | (0.061) | 0.048 (0.037) | (0.063) | 0.026 (0.040) |
Separated from spouse | (0.059) | (0.036) | 0.011 (0.061) | (0.038) |
Serious personal injury or illness | 0.170 *** (0.035) | 0.049 * (0.024) | 0.182 *** (0.039) | 0.022 (0.025) |
Serious injury/illness to family member | 0.099 *** (0.031) | 0.000 (0.019) | 0.101 *** (0.032) | (0.020) |
Death of spouse/child | (0.132) | (0.081) | (0.138) | (0.081) |
Death of close relative/family member | 0.027 (0.032) | 0.036 * (0.020) | 0.026 (0.035) | 0.022 (0.021) |
Death of close friend | 0.044 (0.035) | 0.027 (0.021) | 0.043 (0.039) | 0.016 (0.022) |
Victim of physical violence | 0.027 (0.092) | (0.057) | 0.020 (0.095) | (0.062) |
Victim of a property crime | (0.061) | (0.036) | (0.064) | (0.039) |
Detained in jail | (0.229) | (0.130) | (0.244) | (0.150) |
Close family member detained in jail | 0.033 (0.082) | 0.043 (0.052) | 0.035 (0.085) | 0.030 (0.057) |
Retired from workforce | 0.015 (0.077) | 0.023 (0.044) | 0.014 (0.082) | 0.024 (0.048) |
Fired or made redundant | 0.083 (0.059) | 0.018 (0.038) | 0.100 (0.064) | 0.005 (0.041) |
Major worsening in finances | 0.172 *** (0.067) | 0.039 (0.045) | 0.174 ** (0.069) | 0.020 (0.046) |
Changed residence | (0.029) | (0.017) | (0.030) | (0.019) |
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Individual FE | No | No | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Obesity Classes | Sample Estimates | Bivariate Probit |
---|---|---|
no insomnia and not overweight | 0.474 | 0.471 (0.466, 0.476) (0.465, 0.477) (0.463, 0.480) |
insomnia and not overweight | 0.189 | 0.187 (0.183, 0.191) (0.183, 0.192) (0.181, 0.193) |
no insomnia and overweight | 0.248 | 0.252 (0.247, 0.256) (0.247, 0.257) (0.245, 0.259) |
insomnia and overweight | 0.089 | 0.090 (0.087, 0.093) (0.086, 0.094) (0.085, 0.095) |
Obesity Classes | Sample Estimates | Bivariate Probit |
---|---|---|
no insomnia and not extreme | 0.608 | 0.607 (0.602, 0.612) (0.600, 0.613) (0.599, 0.615) |
insomnia and not extreme | 0.224 | 0.224 (0.220, 0.229) (0.219, 0.230) (0.218, 0.232) |
no insomnia and extreme | 0.114 | 0.116 (0.112, 0.119) (0.112, 0.120) (0.111, 0.122) |
insomnia and extreme | 0.0536 | 0.053 (0.050, 0.056) (0.049, 0.056) (0.048, 0.057) |
Obesity Classes | Sample Estimates | Bivariate Probit |
---|---|---|
no insomnia and not severe | 0.680 | 0.680 (0.675, 0.684) (0.674, 0.685) (0.672, 0.687) |
insomnia and not severe | 0.255 | 0.254 (0.250, 0.259) (0.249, 0.260) (0.248, 0.261) |
no insomnia and severe | 0.043 | 0.043 (0.041, 0.045) (0.041, 0.046) (0.040, 0.047) |
insomnia and severe | 0.0227 | 0.023 (0.021, 0.025) (0.021, 0.025) (0.020, 0.026) |
Obesity Classes | Sample Estimates | Bivariate Probit |
---|---|---|
no insomnia and not very severe | 0.700 | 0.701 (0.697, 0.705) (0.696, 0.706) (0.693, 0.707) |
insomnia and not very severe | 0.261 | 0.261 (0.256, 0.265) (0.256, 0.266) (0.253, 0.268) |
no insomnia and very severe | 0.022 | 0.022 (0.021, 0.024) (0.021, 0.024) (0.020, 0.025) |
insomnia and very severe | 0.017 | 0.016 (0.015, 0.018) (0.015, 0.018) (0.014, 0.018) |
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Insomnia | Obesity | Insomnia | Obesity | |
Positive events | 0.052 (0.025) (−0.018, 0.119) (0.002, 0.102) (0.010, 0.095) ** | 0.115 (0.026) (0.047, 0.183) (0.063, 0.169) (0.073, 0.157) *** | 0.058 (0.027) (−0.012, 0.124) (0.003, 0.110) (0.013, 0.104) ** | 0.106 (0.024) (0.042, 0.166) (0.059, 0.153) (0.068, 0.146) *** |
Negative events | 0.089 (0.022) (0.032, 0.140) (0.046, 0.130) (0.052, 0.124) *** | −0.016 (0.022) (−0.075, 0.036) (−0.060, 0.027) (−0.054, 0.021) | 0.093 (0.023) (0.035, 0.155) (0.048, 0.137) (0.054, 0.130) *** | −0.019 (0.019) (−0.066, 0.032) (−0.056, 0.019) (−0.050, 0.014) |
AIC | 239,543.88 | 239,596.67 | ||
BIC | 240,082.84 | 240,135.63 | ||
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Individual FE | No | No | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Insomnia | Obesity | Insomnia | Obesity | |
Positive events | 0.053 (0.025) (−0.015, 0.128) (0.004, 0.102) (0.013, 0.094) ** | 0.015 (0.031) (−0.075, 0.094) (−0.047, 0.077) (−0.034, 0.064) | 0.058 (0.027) (−0.009, 0.129) (0.005, 0.111) (0.014, 0.104) ** | 0.010 (0.029) (−0.068, 0.084) (−0.045, 0.066) (−0.037, 0.056) |
Negative events | 0.088 (0.022) (0.035, 0.143) (0.045, 0.133) (0.054, 0.125) *** | 0.009 (0.025) (−0.050, 0.081) (−0.038, 0.060) (−0.032, 0.052) | 0.093 (0.022) (0.038, 0.149) (0.048, 0.135) (0.058, 0.130) *** | 0.009 (0.024) (−0.053, 0.067) (−0.036, 0.055) (−0.029, 0.049) |
AIC | 239,553.68 | 240,156.83 | ||
BIC | 240,092.65 | 240,695.79 | ||
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Individual FE | No | No | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Insomnia | Obesity | Insomnia | Obesity | |
Positive events | 0.052 (0.025) (−0.012, 0.117) (0.004, 0.103) (0.012, 0.092) ** | −0.037 (0.045) (−0.160, 0.083) (−0.128, 0.045) (−0.113, 0.035) | 0.058 (0.027) (−0.008, 0.125) (0.003, 0.113) (0.012, 0.102) ** | −0.031 (0.037) (−0.125, 0.060) (−0.101, 0.046) (−0.092, 0.033) |
Negative events | 0.088 (0.021) (0.033, 0.142) (0.047, 0.130) (0.053, 0.123) *** | 0.015 (0.037) (−0.078, 0.108) (−0.055, 0.088) (−0.047, 0.078) | 0.093 (0.023) (0.035, 0.151) (0.050, 0.138) (0.056, 0.131) *** | 0.016 (0.031) (−0.069, 0.093) (−0.047, 0.078) (−0.037, 0.068) |
AIC | 241,033.23 | 242,887.37 | ||
BIC | 241,572.20 | 243,426.33 | ||
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Individual FE | No | No | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Insomnia | Obesity | Insomnia | Obesity | |
Positive events | 0.053 (0.025) (−0.006, 0.117) (0.004, 0.102) (0.013, 0.093) ** | −0.092 (0.075) (−0.290, 0.102) (−0.245, 0.049) (−0.221, 0.028) | 0.058 (0.028) (−0.013, 0.133) (0.003, 0.113) (0.014, 0.101) ** | −0.066 (0.047) (−0.197, 0.062) (−0.152, 0.033) (−0.141, 0.015) |
Negative events | 0.088 (0.022) (0.025, 0.142) (0.043, 0.130) (0.051, 0.124) *** | 0.177 (0.065) (0.008, 0.358) (0.057, 0.301) (0.073, 0.279) *** | 0.093 (0.022) (0.036, 0.145) (0.051, 0.137) (0.057, 0.131) *** | 0.131 (0.039) (0.022, 0.228) (0.056, 0.208) (0.069, 0.195) *** |
AIC | 240,331.80 | 246,848.56 | ||
BIC | 240,870.76 | 247,387.52 | ||
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Individual FE | No | No | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Overweight | Extreme | |||
Insomnia | Obesity | Insomnia | Obesity | |
Got married | ** (0.079) | (0.077) | ** (0.077) | (0.091) |
Got back together | (0.104) | (0.119) | (0.105) | (0.146) |
Pregnancy | *** (0.055) | *** (0.058) | *** (0.055) | ** (0.074) |
Birth/adoption of new child | (0.067) | (0.070) | * (0.064) | (0.089) |
Changed jobs | (0.032) | (0.033) | (0.032) | (0.043) |
Promoted at work | (0.042) | (0.043) | (0.042) | (0.056) |
Major improvement in finances | (0.062) | (0.064) | (0.061) | (0.077) |
Separated from spouse | (0.061) | (0.061) | (0.060) | (0.078) |
Serious personal injury or illness | *** (0.037) | (0.039) | *** (0.039) | (0.046) |
Serious injury/illness to family member | *** (0.031) | (0.033) | *** (0.031) | (0.038) |
Death of spouse/child | (0.127) | (0.138) | (0.125) | (0.154) |
Death of close relative/family member | (0.034) | ** (0.035) | (0.034) | * (0.040) |
Death of close friend | (0.035) | (0.038) | (0.036) | (0.044) |
Victim of physical violence | (0.090) | (0.097) | (0.091) | (0.112) |
Victim of a property crime | (0.061) | (0.062) | (0.060) | (0.076) |
Detained in jail | (0.230) | (0.251) | (0.211) | ** (0.286) |
Close family member detained in jail | (0.081) | (0.090) | (0.081) | (0.110) |
Retired from workforce | (0.076) | (0.078) | (0.080) | (0.094) |
Fired or made redundant | (0.060) | (0.064) | (0.061) | (0.078) |
Major worsening in finances | *** (0.068) | (0.071) | ** (0.068) | (0.084) |
Changed residence | (0.028) | (0.031) | (0.028) | * (0.039) |
AIC | 245,726.68 | 246,281.47 | ||
BIC | 246,585.65 | 247,140.44 | ||
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Severe | Very Severe | |||
Insomnia | Obesity | Insomnia | Obesity | |
Got married | ** (0.078) | (0.132) | ** (0.078) | (0.262) |
Got back together | (0.105) | (0.193) | (0.107) | * (0.333) |
Pregnancy | *** (0.054) | (0.097) | *** (0.056) | (0.185) |
Birth/adoption of new child | * (0.069) | (0.117) | (0.067) | (0.229) |
Changed jobs | (0.031) | (0.057) | (0.033) | (0.102) |
Promoted at work | (0.042) | ** (0.079) | (0.041) | (0.138) |
Major improvement in finances | (0.061) | (0.101) | (0.061) | * (0.170) |
Separated from spouse | (0.061) | (0.104) | (0.060) | (0.193) |
Serious personal injury or illness | *** (0.040) | (0.058) | *** (0.039) | (0.103) |
Serious injury/illness to family member | *** (0.030) | * (0.050) | *** (0.030) | (0.094) |
Death of spouse/child | (0.127) | (0.200) | (0.128) | (0.343) |
Death of close relative/family member | (0.033) | * (0.053) | (0.032) | (0.095) |
Death of close friend | (0.035) | (0.057) | (0.036) | (0.104) |
Victim of physical violence | (0.091) | ** (0.175) | (0.089) | (0.299) |
Victim of a property crime | (0.060) | (0.108) | (0.060) | (0.193) |
Detained in jail | (0.226) | (0.430) | (0.219) | (0.890) |
Close family member detained in jail | (0.082) | * (0.131) | (0.081) | (0.232) |
Retired from workforce | (0.077) | (0.121) | (0.077) | (0.221) |
Fired or made redundant | (0.059) | (0.105) | (0.059) | (0.194) |
Major worsening in finances | *** (0.065) | (0.109) | *** (0.066) | (0.193) |
Changed residence | (0.028) | *** (0.051) | (0.029) | (0.088) |
AIC | 248,405.39 | 249,134.30 | ||
BIC | 249,264.36 | 249,993.27 | ||
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Average Partial Effects | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Overweight | Extreme | Severe | Very Severe | |
Got married | * (0.006) | (0.004) | (0.003) | * (0.002) |
Got back together | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.004) | * (0.002) |
Pregnancy | *** (0.006) | *** (0.004) | ** (0.003) | (0.002) |
Birth/adoption of new child | (0.006) | (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.002) |
Changed jobs | (0.003) | (0.002) | (0.001) | (0.001) |
Promoted at work | (0.004) | (0.003) | ** (0.002) | (0.001) |
Major improvement in finances | (0.006) | (0.004) | (0.002) | (0.002) |
Separated from spouse | (0.006) | (0.004) | (0.002) | (0.002) |
Serious personal injury or illness | *** (0.004) | *** (0.003) | *** (0.002) | ** (0.001) |
Serious injury/illness to family member | *** (0.003) | (0.002) | *** (0.001) | (0.001) |
Death of spouse/child | (0.010) | (0.006) | (0.005) | (0.003) |
Death of close relative/family member | (0.003) | * (0.002) | * (0.001) | (0.001) |
Death of close friend | (0.003) | (0.002) | (0.001) | * (0.001) |
Victim of physical violence | (0.008) | (0.006) | ** (0.003) | (0.002) |
Victim of a property crime | (0.005) | (0.004) | (0.002) | (0.002) |
Detained in jail | (0.017) | (0.018) | (0.007) | (0.005) |
Close family member detained in jail | (0.008) | (0.005) | (0.004) | (0.003) |
Retired from workforce | (0.007) | (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.002) |
Fired or made redundant | (0.006) | * (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.002) |
Major worsening in finances | (0.007) | *** (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.002) |
Changed residence | (0.003) | * (0.002) | *** (0.001) | (0.001) |
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Average Partial Effects | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male | Female | <40 | >40 | Low | High | |
Got married | ** (0.009) | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.012) | (0.009) | *** (0.009) |
Got back together | (0.017) | (0.013) | (0.011) | (0.021) | (0.012) | (0.022) |
Pregnancy | (0.008) | *** (0.009) | *** (0.007) | (0.016) | *** (0.008) | *** (0.011) |
Birth/adoption of new child | ** (0.010) | (0.007) | (0.006) | (0.024) | (0.008) | (0.010) |
Changed jobs | (0.004) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.005) | (0.004) | (0.005) |
Promoted at work | (0.006) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.008) | (0.005) | (0.006) |
Major improvement in finances | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.008) |
Separated from spouse | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.009) | (0.006) | (0.012) |
Serious personal injury or illness | ** (0.005) | *** (0.005) | * (0.006) | ** (0.005) | ** (0.004) | ** (0.006) |
Serious injury/illness to family member | (0.004) | ** (0.004) | ** (0.005) | * (0.004) | * (0.004) | * (0.005) |
Death of spouse/child | (0.018) | (0.013) | (0.020) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.017) |
Death of close relative/family member | (0.005) | (0.004) | (0.004) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.005) |
Death of close friend | (0.005) | (0.004) | * (0.006) | (0.004) | (0.004) | (0.006) |
Victim of physical violence | (0.015) | (0.011) | (0.010) | (0.017) | (0.009) | (0.023) |
Victim of a property crime | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.007) | ** (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.008) |
Detained in jail | (0.019) | (0.037) | (0.018) | (0.029) | (0.017) | *** (0.005) |
Close family member detained in jail | (0.014) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.012) | (0.009) | (0.015) |
Retired from workforce | (0.011) | (0.009) | (0.033) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.015) |
Fired or made redundant | (0.008) | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.011) |
Major worsening in finances | (0.010) | (0.009) | (0.010) | (0.009) | *** (0.008) | (0.011) |
Changed residence | −0.002 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.003) | −0.000 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.005) | 0.000 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.004) |
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Average Partial Effects | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male | Female | <40 | >40 | Low | High | |
Got married | −0.002 (0.006) | −0.002 (0.007) | −0.006 (0.005) | 0.023 * (0.012) | 0.005 (0.007) | −0.007 (0.006) |
Got back together | 0.001 (0.010) | −0.003 (0.010) | −0.007 (0.007) | 0.012 (0.015) | −0.002 (0.008) | −0.001 (0.014) |
Pregnancy | 0.002 (0.005) | 0.033 *** (0.007) | 0.017 *** (0.004) | −0.003 (0.011) | 0.018 *** (0.006) | 0.013 ** (0.006) |
Birth/adoption of new child | 0.008 (0.006) | 0.004 (0.007) | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.033 * (0.020) | 0.004 (0.006) | 0.013 ** (0.007) |
Changed jobs | −0.002 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.002) | −0.004 (0.004) | −0.001 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.003) |
Promoted at work | −0.003 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.004) | −0.004 (0.003) | 0.007 (0.006) | −0.002 (0.004) | −0.003 (0.003) |
Major improvement in finances | −0.003 (0.005) | −0.004 (0.005) | −0.003 (0.005) | −0.006 (0.005) | −0.002 (0.005) | −0.005 (0.005) |
Separated from spouse | 0.004 (0.006) | −0.003 (0.005) | 0.004 (0.005) | −0.005 (0.006) | 0.004 (0.005) | −0.009 (0.006) |
Serious personal injury or illness | 0.011 *** (0.004) | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.009 ** (0.004) | 0.007 ** (0.003) | 0.008 ** (0.003) | 0.006 (0.004) |
Serious injury/illness to family member | −0.002 (0.003) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.000 (0.003) | 0.003 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.003) |
Death of spouse/child | −0.008 (0.011) | −0.010 (0.009) | −0.008 (0.012) | −0.010 (0.009) | −0.009 (0.009) | −0.010 (0.011) |
Death of close relative/family member | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.006 ** (0.003) | 0.004 * (0.003) | 0.003 (0.003) |
Death of close friend | 0.005 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.003) | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.004 (0.004) |
Victim of physical violence | 0.013 (0.009) | 0.006 (0.009) | 0.007 (0.007) | 0.017 (0.013) | 0.007 (0.007) | 0.017 (0.013) |
Victim of a property crime | 0.007 (0.005) | −0.004 (0.005) | 0.003 (0.005) | −0.001 (0.006) | 0.001 (0.005) | 0.002 (0.005) |
Detained in jail | 0.019 (0.019) | 0.031 (0.010) | 0.008 (0.018) | 0.068 ** (0.040) | 0.014 (0.017) | 0.172 ** (0.104) |
Close family member detained in jail | −0.007 (0.007) | −0.000 (0.007) | −0.021 *** (0.005) | 0.015 * (0.009) | −0.007 (0.006) | 0.007 (0.010) |
Retired from workforce | 0.002 (0.006) | 0.003 (0.007) | 0.015 (0.023) | 0.001 (0.005) | 0.000 (0.006) | 0.006 (0.009) |
Fired or made redundant | 0.009 * (0.005) | 0.005 (0.007) | 0.006 (0.005) | 0.006 (0.006) | 0.013 *** (0.005) | −0.004 (0.006) |
Major worsening in finances | 0.009 (0.007) | 0.013 * (0.007) | 0.012 * (0.007) | 0.010 (0.0007) | 0.016 *** (0.006) | 0.006 (0.007) |
Changed residence | −0.004 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.003) | −0.005 ** (0.002) | 0.001 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.002) | −0.005 ** (0.003) |
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Average Partial Effects | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male | Female | <40 | >40 | Low | High | |
Got married | −0.002 (0.003) | −0.004 (0.005) | −0.002 (0.003) | −0.004 (0.006) | 0.001 (0.004) | −0.007 ** (0.003) |
Got back together | −0.006 (0.004) | 0.005 (0.008) | −0.004 (0.005) | 0.007 (0.010) | −0.005 (0.005) | 0.022 * (0.015) |
Pregnancy | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.016 *** (0.005) | 0.006 ** (0.003) | −0.009 (0.006) | 0.010 ** (0.004) | −0.001 (0.004) |
Birth/adoption of new child | 0.005 (0.004) | 0.004 (0.005) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.020 (0.017) | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.005 (0.005) |
Changed jobs | −0.001 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.002 (0.002) | −0.003 (0.002) | −0.002 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.002) |
Promoted at work | −0.003 (0.002) | −0.005 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.002) | −0.002 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.003) | −0.005 *** (0.002) |
Major improvement in finances | 0.002 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.004) | −0.005 (0.003) | −0.000 (0.003) | −0.001 (0.004) | 0.002 (0.003) |
Separated from spouse | −0.004 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.004) | −0.001 (0.003) | −0.005 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.003) | −0.005 (0.004) |
Serious personal injury or illness | 0.000 (0.002) | 0.008 *** (0.003) | 0.005 * (0.003) | 0.003 (0.002) | 0.004 * (0.002) | 0.002 (0.002) |
Serious injury/illness to family member | 0.003 ** (0.002) | 0.004 * (0.002) | 0.003 (0.002) | 0.004 ** (0.002) | 0.007 *** (0.002) | −0.001 (0.002) |
Death of spouse/child | 0.012 (0.010) | −0.004 (0.007) | 0.004 (0.010) | −0.001 (0.006) | 0.003 (0.006) | −0.007 (0.007) |
Death of close relative/family member | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.005 ** (0.002) | 0.005 ** (0.002) | 0.001 (0.002) | 0.003 (0.002) | 0.004 ** (0.002) |
Death of close friend | 0.000 (0.002) | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.006 ** (0.003) | −0.000 (0.002) | −0.000 (0.002) | 0.004 (0.002) |
Victim of physical violence | −0.008 ** (0.003) | −0.006 (0.005) | −0.006 (0.004) | −0.009 (0.005) | −0.009 ** (0.004) | −0.001 (0.008) |
Victim of a property crime | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.004 (0.004) | −0.002 (0.003) | −0.004 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.003) | −0.001 (0.003) |
Detained in jail | −0.002 (0.006) | −0.025 *** (0.005) | −0.005 (0.008) | −0.021 ** (0.005) | −0.008 (0.008) | −0.013 (0.007) |
Close family member detained in jail | 0.007 (0.005) | 0.006 (0.006) | 0.007 (0.005) | 0.006 (0.006) | 0.009 ** (0.005) | 0.000 (0.006) |
Retired from workforce | −0.000 (0.003) | −0.001 (0.005) | −0.011 (0.008) | −0.000 (0.003) | −0.001 (0.004) | −0.000 (0.005) |
Fired or made redundant | 0.000 (0.002) | −0.000 (0.005) | −0.003 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.004) |
Major worsening in finances | −0.001 (0.003) | 0.005 (0.005) | 0.001 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.004) | 0.002 (0.004) | 0.004 (0.005) |
Changed residence | −0.001 (0.001) | −0.006 *** (0.002) | −0.005 ** (0.001) | −0.002 (0.002) | −0.004 ** (0.002) | −0.005 *** (0.002) |
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Average Partial Effects | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male | Female | <40 | >40 | Low | High | |
Got married | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.007 ** (0.003) | −0.004 * (0.002) | −0.003 (0.004) | −0.004 (0.003) | −0.004 * (0.002) |
Got back together | −0.000 (0.003) | −0.008 * (0.004) | −0.009 *** (0.002) | 0.009 (0.008) | −0.003 (0.004) | −0.008 ** (0.003) |
Pregnancy | −0.000 (0.002) | 0.009 *** (0.004) | 0.003 * (0.002) | −0.002 (0.005) | −0.001 (0.003) | 0.007 *** (0.003) |
Birth/adoption of new child | 0.003 (0.003) | −0.006 * (0.003) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.013 (0.013) | 0.004 (0.004) | −0.007 *** (0.001) |
Changed jobs | 0.000 (0.001) | −0.004 ** (0.002) | −0.002 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.000 (0.001) | −0.004 *** (0.001) |
Promoted at work | 0.001 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.002) | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.002) |
Major improvement in finances | 0.004 * (0.002) | 0.002 (0.003) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.002) | 0.006 ** (0.003) | 0.001 (0.002) |
Separated from spouse | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.002) | −0.007 *** (0.002) | −0.002 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.003) |
Serious personal injury or illness | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.005 ** (0.002) | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.008 *** (0.002) |
Serious injury/illness to family member | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.001) |
Death of spouse/child | −0.004 (0.004) | −0.006 (0.004) | −0.001 (0.006) | −0.005 (0.003) | −0.004 (0.004) | −0.003 (0.004) |
Death of close relative/family member | −0.001 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.002) | −0.000 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.001) |
Death of close friend | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.003 * (0.002) |
Victim of physical violence | −0.002 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.004) | −0.001 (0.004) | −0.001 (0.005) | −0.000 (0.004) | −0.008 *** (0.002) |
Victim of a property crime | 0.002 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.003) | 0.000 (0.003) |
Detained in jail | −0.004 (0.003) | −0.017 *** (0.005) | −0.007 (0.006) | −0.011 ** (0.005) | −0.011 ** (0.003) | −0.010 *** (0.001) |
Close family member detained in jail | −0.003 (0.002) | 0.006 (0.005) | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.004) | −0.000 (0.003) | 0.009 * (0.006) |
Retired from workforce | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.003 (0.004) | 0.024 ** (0.015) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.004) |
Fired or made redundant | 0.002 (0.002) | −0.000 (0.004) | −0.002 (0.002) | 0.006 * (0.004) | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.003) |
Major worsening in finances | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.004) | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.005 * (0.003) | 0.000 (0.003) |
Changed residence | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.001) | 0.003 * (0.002) | −0.000 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) |
Individual RE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
State FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Gunawan, D. Bayesian Inference on the Impact of Serious Life Events on Insomnia and Obesity. Mathematics 2025, 13, 1840. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13111840
Gunawan D. Bayesian Inference on the Impact of Serious Life Events on Insomnia and Obesity. Mathematics. 2025; 13(11):1840. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13111840
Chicago/Turabian StyleGunawan, David. 2025. "Bayesian Inference on the Impact of Serious Life Events on Insomnia and Obesity" Mathematics 13, no. 11: 1840. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13111840
APA StyleGunawan, D. (2025). Bayesian Inference on the Impact of Serious Life Events on Insomnia and Obesity. Mathematics, 13(11), 1840. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13111840