Abstract
The article consists of an introduction into the theory of passage times associated with telegraph processes. Local time for the telegraph process is defined and analysed. We provide some limited results for telegraphic local times.
Keywords:
asymmetric telegraph processes; excursion; first passage time; last passage time; number of the level crossings MSC:
60J55
1. Introduction
The main subject of research in this paper is the Goldstein–Kac asymmetric telegraph process, which describes the motion of a particle along a real line moving with some finite constant speed and alternating between the two possible directions of motion (positive and negative) at random (inhomogeneous) Poisson time intervals.
The mathematical study of such a model began from the seminal paper by M.Kac [1], where the symmetric case is introduced. See also [2]. This approach presumes finiteness as the speed of motion, and the intensity of direction changes per unit of time, which serves as an alternative to classical Wiener processes. This is all the more so because, under the appropriate scaling, the telegraph process weakly converges to a Brownian motion. At present, the theory of telegraph processes is a deep and well-developed area. A presentation of the current state of research in this area can be found in the monographs [3,4], especially in the recently published second edition [5] of the latter book.
In addition to their considerable theoretical value, these random processes have numerous and varied applications. The process can be used to simulate motion undergoing shocks that deviate from the current direction. Similar models based on a persistent random walk arise in physics, chemical kinetics, and various biological models for gene developments, population dynamics, or propagation of nerve impulses (see, for example, [6,7,8,9,10] and references therein).
Mathematical models of financial markets based on such persistent random motions have been intensively studied since [11], (for a complete review, we refer to the monograph [4,5]).
Many phenomena in the physical and biological sciences can be mathematically explained by considering the properties of level crossings by random processes. One of the main objectives of our article is to study the distributions of crossing times associated with telegraph processes.
It is worth noting that the distribution of the random crossing time and of the number of crossings are important, for example, in neural modelling; see, for example, a classical textbook (neural firing as a first passage time [12]). This approach to neural models continues to develop, see, e.g., [13]. The correlated level crossings resulting from a variety of correlated processes are intensively studied by Tchumatchenko Group, see [14]. Nonlinear settings, which are very useful and interesting for understanding neural firing are also beginning to be studied [15]. See also [16]. In [17], these ideas are applied in combination with naively obvious advantages of a persistent random motion/telegraph processes.
Based on the well-studied results associated with these processes, we begin to explore a relatively new area related to telegraphic bridges, meanders, and excursions. It is worth noting that these new objects of interest require a preliminary detailed study of the following topics:
- distribution of crossing time;
- distribution of the number of crossings;
- distributions of return time to the starting point.
The article is organised as follows. First, we recall the well-known formulae for the distribution of the first passage time (Theorem 1). These results are then used to analyse the distribution of the return time (Theorem 2). It turns out that the distribution of is defective (the telegraph process does not return to 0 with positive probability, Theorem 3). In the case of the proper distribution, the averages can be obtained explicitly. We also derive formulae of the distribution of the crossing time, which is the last one in a given time interval (Theorem 4).
Section 3 is devoted to the definition and analysis of local time for the telegraph process.
2. Telegraph Processes and Passage Time Distributions
Let us first recall the definition and main properties of asymmetric telegraph processes. A detailed presentation can be found in (Chap. 3: Asymmetric Jump-Telegraph Processes) [5].
Consider a particle moving with alternating velocities and starting from the origin. The change of velocities is driven by an inhomogeneous Poisson process with alternating rates The current position of a moving particle can be given by
Here, is a two-state Markov process with the infinitesimal generator matrix
The starting velocity is determined by the initial state of the Markov process
The distribution of is determined by two pairs of parameters, and which correspond to two alternating states of the process .
Let the telegraph process (1) be determined by two alternating states and That is, the speeds have opposite signs, and the process starts from the origin.
The probability triple where the process is defined, can be divided into two parts and , with respect to the initial state of the underlying Markov process Here, and .
The conditional distribution of for a given initial state can be expressed as
Here, the time of the first switching has an exponential distribution, which depends on the initial state i of the underlying process .
By definition, a. s. and
which corresponds to straight-line motion without switching. The explicit expressions for the transition probability density functions
can be written using (2) separately for even and odd n in the form:
and
where Here, we use the following notations:
and
See, e.g., Section 3.1.1 of [5].
Summing up in (3) and (4), one can obtain the transition probabilities accompanying with an even and odd number of switchings: for
and
Here, and are the modified Bessel functions of the first kind
Let be the first passage time, that is,
The distribution of is known. For the sake of completeness, we present an exact result. The formulae differ in cases where the process starts moving towards the threshold x or it starts in the opposite direction.
Theorem 1.
LetTherefore, the distribution ofis given by
and
Here,
and
Proof.
See ((2.7)–(2.8) of [18]) and [5]. See also [19], where slightly erroneous formulae are presented in the symmetric case □
We are especially interested in explicit formulae for the distribution of the return times to the origin. Despite the fact that Formulas (8) and (9) are well known, the distributions of the moments of the first and last (at the time interval ) returns to the origin are known less.
Let
which are the moments of the first and last (at the time interval ) visits to the origin by the telegraph process We say that if the process never returns to the origin, that is, the set is empty.
The explicit form of the distribution of can be obtained from Theorem 1 using the following auxiliary result.
Lemma 1.
Forwe have
and
Proof.
The limit as of exists path-by-path since is path-wise monotone, that is, for Further,
Therefore, a.s. as The proof for is symmetric.
Properties (11) are proved similarly. □
Theorem 2.
The probability density functions forare given by
where
and
Here,
andandare switching intensities per unit path.
Proof.
By virtue of (11),
Notice that
and
Therefore, passing to the limit in (8), we obtain
where k and are defined by (13)–(15), respectively.
The proof for is symmetric. □
The survival functions corresponding to can be expressed by using (12)–(14). Indeed, by virtue of (12),
Here, and are the running minimum and maximum, respectively, and
and are the probabilities of not returning to 0.
By the definition of the Bessel function , (7), we have
where is the upper incomplete gamma-function.
The properties of the distribution of can be detailed as follows.
Theorem 3.
- 1.
- In the asymmetric case, i.e., ifthe distribution ofis defective. Exactly, the probabilities of not returning to the origin are given by
- 2.
- The average ofis given by the following way:and.
- 3.
- The survival functionsandsatisfy the conditionwhere L is slowly varying, if and only ifand.
Notice that in the symmetric case, the distribution of is proper, but the mean value does not exist.
Proof.
The expectation is obtained by a simple computation. We consider first .
By (19), if
Notice that by definition, Hence, the expectation can be finite only if Thus, in the case of using ([2.15.3.2 [21]), we obtain
Formulae for are obtained in the same way.
Remark 1.
In the symmetric case,that is, ifthen the survival functionsandcoincide with
The distribution of the time of the last visit to the origin, see (10), has an atom. This corresponds to the case when the telegraph particle has no return to 0 during the time interval . In this case, which corresponds to . Therefore, by virtue of (16) and (25),
where is determined by (17) and (18). The absolutely continuous part of the distribution of can be written as follows.
Theorem 4.
Proof.
Since the telegraph process has renewal behaviour, each path continues regardless of the past after each return to the origin. Namely, for and any Borel set
and
see, e.g., Theorem 3.1 of [22].
Let be the time of the last visit of process to the origin. The distribution of can be described by
Furthermore, by (28) and (29),
where and are the running minimum and maximum.
Note that by (16), the probability of positive on telegraphic paths
The probability of always negative paths are given by
3. Telegraphic Local Time
Let be the (asymmetric) telegraph process. Local time at point x is defined as the weighted number of visits to x by the process
see Proposition 2.1 of [23].
First, let . Since the process starts from the origin, then the sum in (33) has only one term with the probabilities given by
Further, we have the following explicit expressions.
Proof.
Since the telegraph process has renewal behaviour, the excursions of the process (the paths between successive returns to the origin) are independent of each other.
The local time for any threshold can be obtained similarly. The formulae for the probabilities follow from (8) and (9). Similarly to (35), one can obtain the following result.
Theorem 6.
Forand
In the symmetric case, the local time satisfies the following limit theorem.
Theorem 7.
LetTherefore, for
Here,is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution.
Proof.
In the symmetric case, the distribution of is independent of the initial state, and where is the number of returns to the origin within
It is known that has a proper limit distribution if and only if
where L is slowly varying and . See (Ch. IX, 8; XI, 5; XVII, 5 of [24]). Note that, by Theorem 3, (22), property (38) is true only in the symmetric case with . Notice that in this case, (26).
Therefore, due to Ch. XI.5, p. 373 of [24],
where is the cumulative distribution function of the one-sided -stable (inverse-gamma) distribution, satisfying the limiting condition
The probability density function of the -stable one-sided distribution has the form
see (Ch. 2.4, (4.8), p. 52 of [24]). Therefore, for
and the scale parameter is determined by the limiting condition (39), that is,
where is the probability density function of the standard Gaussian law.
Hence, which proves (37). □
4. Conclusions
In this paper, we analyse the properties of the crossing time distributions associated with the asymmetric telegraph process. In view of potential applications in financial engineering and neural and biological modelling, the results on the times of the last crossings and the time of returning to the starting point and the local times of the telegraph processes are of the most interest.
It turns out that in the asymmetric case, the return time is infinite with positive probability. Further, the survival probability of satisfies the Feller condition only in the symmetric case. To the best of our knowledge, these results are new and have never been presented before. These results can help in constructing the theory of telegraph bridges, excursions, and meanders.
Further research in this field can be aimed at extending this model to telegraph processes with jumps and to the analysis of other dynamics governed by
- various distributions of inter-arrival times, other than exponential;
- alternating nonlinear patterns.
Author Contributions
N.R. and M.T. contributed equally to this work. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF), project number 22-21-00148, https://rscf.ru/project/22-21-00148/ (accessed on 1 December 2022).
Data Availability Statement
All data generated and analysed during this study are included in the published article.
Acknowledgments
We are deeply grateful to the referees for their careful reading of the manuscript and very helpful suggestions for improving the text.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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