Research on Simulation and Decision-Making of Coal Mine Workers’ Behavior Risk

Abstract

The behavior risk of workers is one of the main restricting factors in coal mine safety decision-making and management. In this paper, the behavior and decision-making process of individuals and organizations are modeled and analyzed to solve this challenge, based on data analysis and behavior decision-making. Based on system dynamics (SD), this paper proposes an unsafe behavior correction system (SD-I_pt) for coal miners to reduce occupational risk. The “1 + 1 + 3 + X” behavior risk correction decision-making system is constructed, and the implementation scheme of the system is put forward, which has been applied in coal mines. This study can effectively correct the unsafe behavior of coal mining enterprises and improve the occupational safety and health management ability of coal mining enterprises.

1. Introduction

Human factors are the main part of occupational risk, and the reduction of occupational risk is one of the important methods of Coal Mine Occupational Safety and health management. Therefore, research on human factors is an important research field to reduce the risk of occupational safety and health management in coal mines.

The purpose of this article is to establish a system for correcting the safety behavior level of coal mine employees, thereby improving the safety level of coal mine employees, effectively reducing the incidence and loss of accidents caused by human behavior and achieving significant social and economic benefits.

In recent decades, a large number of pioneering and fruitful studies have been conducted on safety behavior, which has accumulated rich research results and experience for this study. Some scholars have found that there is a certain relationship between safety behavior and safety atmosphere [1]. The relationship between safety atmosphere, safety motivation and safety behavior are studied from the individual and group level [2]. Safety behaviors are also related to factors such as safety supervision and underground noise level in coal mines [3,4]. In other industries, the main influencing factors of unsafe behaviors include organizational and social factors [5], management safety, work safety tension [6], safety atmosphere and personal safety awareness [7,8,9,10].

With the deepening of research, it is found that the factors leading to unsafe behaviors exist in many aspects. For example, leaders’ behaviors and management policies will have an impact on employees’ behaviors [11], the lack of safety culture will lead to employees’ unsafe behaviors [12] and personal perception, environmental support, organizational management system and experience\personal psychological pressure will also lead to unsafe behaviors [13,14,15].

Many scholars use simulation to analyze and study safety behavior, and have achieved rich results. System dynamics (SD) has been used to analyze the cognitive mechanism of unsafe behaviors [16] and propose joint intervention strategies to control unsafe behaviors [17,18]. Group dynamics is used to analyze the group safety behavior of coal miners [19]. Evolutionary game theory is used to describe the dynamic process of multi person game in coal mine safety supervision [20,21]. QSIM (Qualitative Simulation) can simulate and analyze qualitative problems, and based on it, a computer can realize qualitative simulation. QSIM and a group safety behavior software platform based on genetic neural network optimized QSIM filtering are used to simulate and analyze the group safety behavior of coal miners [22,23]. These provide some new ideas for the research on behavior of coal miners.

Correction of unsafe behaviors can improve employees’ behaviors and processes [24]. The ways to improve safety behavior have been studied from many aspects: for example, improving employees’ safety awareness and emotional participation [25], strengthening supervision over enterprise safety [26], strengthening safety education and training for miners, creating a good atmosphere, improving systems and standards, and improving employees’ skills [15,27].

The above research results have laid a foundation for the correction of group safety behavior. The above studies studied the characteristics and influencing factors of safety behavior from the perspective of the group, and studied the changing process, rules and characteristics of safety behavior. This paper constructs an SD model of coal mine employees’ unsafe behaviors and simulates the evolution of unsafe behaviors. It also contributes to the prediction and correction system of coal mine employee behavior. The development and deepening of the prediction and correction system for coal mine employees’ behavior has high theoretical significance and practical application value.

2. Methods

2.1. Behavior Characteristics of Coal Mine Workers

Most of the coal mine workers work underground, and their working characteristics are as follow:

➀

Long working time and high intensity. Although the underground mechanization is gradually improving, part of the work that needs to be completed manually is still heavy. Therefore, compared with employees in other industries, coal mine employees have long working hours and high intensity.

➁

High work risk. The underground work of coal mine workers is accompanied by the threat of water damage, fire, gas and other hidden dangers. Once the accident is caused by improper operation, it will cause serious casualties.

➂

Poor working environment. Coal mine workers usually work in the depth of the earth’s surface, accompanied by a lot of dust, high temperature, high humidity and high noise. Under such a working environment, the occupational safety and health of employees are seriously affected.

Under such work characteristics, coal mine workers have formed their own unique unsafe behaviors. The specific characteristics are as follows:

➀

Easy to spread. Due to the particularity of the work of coal mine workers, any individual in the group (team or district team) has unsafe behavior. If it is not stopped, other individuals in the group will follow suit, so that the behavior can quickly spread in the group.

➁

Behavior tends to create risk. Coal mine employees are very tired. In order to get more rest time, under the influence of luck and energy-saving psychology, coal mine employees will have some dangerous behaviors to complete the task as soon as possible. At this time, the employees’ behavior will tend to create risk.

➂

Uncertainty. Affected by various external environmental factors and the physiological and psychological factors of the employees themselves, it is impossible to predict and determine when the employees will take safe actions and when unsafe actions. Even if there are unsafe behaviors, the consequences cannot be determined, because some unsafe behaviors may cause accidents, but some only increase the risk of production and do not cause accidents.

The behavior of coal mine workers is considered to be a complex system, including all aspects of their work. If all factors are used to build the model, it is impossible to complete the task. Therefore, how to select the factors needed for modeling with emphasis is a challenge in modeling. The selected factors should reflect the behavior characteristics of coal mine workers as much as possible, and must be as simple and reliable as possible.

2.2. The SD Model

The sense of group safety and the level of cognition are the abilities of employees. It is obtained by the accumulation of safety psychological and physiological level with time. Similarly, risk identification ability, risk aversion ability and emergency response ability are also elements to describe the characteristics of subgroups, and the level of group safety ability can be accumulated with time. The relationship between the group safety feeling and the cognitive level, the group safety ability level and the group safety behavior state, is the growth rate compared with the group safety behavior level. They are the integral of the group safety behavior level with respect to time T. Therefore, the level of group safety ability, the level of group safety feeling and cognition and the state of group safety behavior are all variables of growth rate in the model.

In the model, four state variables, i.e., the size of positive subgroups, the number of positive subgroups, the size of negative subgroups and the number of negative subgroups, are established to simulate the evolution of group behavior from the microscopic perspective. The product of the number of subgroups and the size of subgroups is the total size of the relevant groups. These variables directly affect the group subculture, including the positive subgroup affecting the positive subculture, the negative subgroup affecting the negative subculture, and the subculture has a direct impact on the group safety behavior.

The SD flow chart of the safety behavior level of coal mine employees was created based on the causal relationship and feedback of the above analysis, as shown in Figure 1. According to the system dynamics modeling requirements, the feedback loop of the group safety behavior level is fed back from the group safety behavior level gap. It constitutes the dynamic simulation and simulation mechanism of the entire SD system over time.

2.3. The Determination of Initial Values

The initial value of the model should be determined according to the research purpose of the model, the relationship between variables and repeated debugging of variables. Based on expert scoring and model adjustment and optimization method, the initial value assignment of each variable in the SD model was obtained, as shown in

Table 1. Data table of initial values of some variables in SD model.

Variable Name	Variable Nature	Initial Value
Level of group safe behavior	The horizontal variable	50
Group safety perception and cognitive level	The horizontal variable	15
Group safety capability level	The horizontal variable	13
The degree of group safety perception and cognitive deficiency	The horizontal variable	19
Lack of group safety capacity	The horizontal variable	15
Positive small group size	The horizontal variable	5
Number of active small groups	The horizontal variable	20
Negative small group size	The horizontal variable	12
Number of negative small groups	The horizontal variable	10
Target value of group safe behavior level	Auxiliary variables	500

. The time step is 0.25, that is, the value is selected at every 0.25 time point in the simulation. The smaller the time step, the shorter the interval between the selection of various variables in the system, and the more accurate the results of system operation, which provides a higher accuracy and research basis for linear regression analysis of simulation data in the later stage.

This article creates a new decision-making correction intensity (Impact Intensity) determination index I_PT, which is used to determine the correction intensity of intervention decision-making on the level of group safety behavior. The calculation formula of I_PT is:

I_PT = K_n/K₀

(1)

where K_n is the linear regression slope value of the strengthened intervention strategy, and K₀ is the linear regression slope value of the original data. Therefore, I_PT is the ratio of the strength of intervention decision-making in a unit time period to the slope of the group safety behavior level of the original data, which can objectively reflect the correction intensity of the group safety behavior level in the unit time period T_n.

3. Results

3.1. EAP System Intervention

Perform intervention decision simulation on the SD model of group safety behavior level, increase the intervention intensity of various intervention decisions in the EAP (Employee Assistance Program) system respectively and obtain the simulation diagram of the correction intensity of various intervention decisions in the EAP system, as shown in Figure 2.

According to the average segmentation of the time series, there are 18 time periods, which are represented by T_n (n = 1,2,3,4……18), and each time period contains 4 months. Taking the linear regression analysis of the fund security investment decision K₂ in the T₁ time period as an example, the linear regression dot matrix diagram of the fund security investment in the time period T₁ is obtained, as shown in Figure 3, and the linear regression equation slope K_2T1 in the T₁ time period is obtained.

According to the above method, the four decisions of the EAP system in each time period are analyzed and researched, and the growth rate K of the EAP system in each time period after each decision-making strength is strengthened is shown in

Table 2. The growth rate K with each decision power strengthened of EAP system.

	K1	K2	K3	K4	K0		K1	K2	K3	K4	K0
T1	1.2930	3.2349	1.2909	2.3874	1.2857	T10	15.4099	6.4315	12.6625	9.4632	11.6711
T2	1.6639	4.0712	1.6503	2.9774	1.6329	T11	16.5351	4.6842	13.5651	8.0289	12.5043
T3	2.0920	4.9317	2.0556	3.6219	2.0176	T12	14.9324	2.9823	12.9200	5.9712	12.0621
T4	2.8000	5.9855	2.7171	4.5361	2.6458	T13	10.4065	1.5442	10.5339	3.7288	10.1793
T5	3.8636	7.1501	3.6881	5.7316	3.5621	T14	4.3808	0.4620	6.8791	1.6960	7.1891
T6	5.3579	8.1953	5.0037	7.1183	4.7894	T15	0.1294	0.0512	3.1696	0.3437	4.0661
T7	7.3667	8.8147	6.6859	8.5019	6.3353	T16	0	0.0437	0.4791	0.1543	1.6804
T8	9.9135	8.7418	8.6915	9.5749	8.1480	T17	0	0.0028	0	0	0.2627
T9	12.8072	7.8931	10.8258	9.9806	10.0474	T18	0	0.0023	0	0.01889	0.2447

. The comparison of the slope Kn and the original data K₀ after the various decision-making efforts are strengthened is shown in Figure 4.

For each time period, take each decision correction strength I_PT according to the formula and obtain the analysis diagram of the change of the decision correction strength with the time period T_n, as shown in Figure 5.

Therefore, the criterion for determining the intensity of intervention decision correction is established: when I_PT > 1, it means that the decision has a significant effect on the improvement of group safety behavior level; when I_PT < 1, it means that the effect of this decision on correction and improvement of group safety behavior level is poor. The larger the I_PT, the better the corrective effect of the decision-making intensity on the safety behavior level of the group during the time period. According to the criterion of correction intensity, taking I_PT = 1 as the baseline, cultural, sports and entertainment activities and fund security investment have a more obvious effect on the improvement of group safety behavior level correction within the time period of T₁–T₈, of which the correction intensity of fund security investment is higher; psychological counseling and counseling and upgrading work equipment have a more obvious effect on improving group safety behavior level correction during the T₈–T₁₃ time period and the intensity of psychological counseling and counseling correction is higher.

Research has shown that in the various decisions of the EAP system, capital security investment and cultural, sports and entertainment activities have a better effect on improving the level of group safety behavior in the early stage and psychological counseling and counseling and upgrading work equipment have a better effect on improving the level of group safety behavior in the later stage.

3.2. Organizational Management Intervention

Carry out intervention decision simulation on the SD model of group safety behavior level and increase the intervention intensity of various intervention decisions of the organization and management. Figure 6 shows the simulation diagram of the correction intensity of various intervention decisions in the organization and management.

According to the above method, the six decisions of organizational management intervention in each time period are analyzed and studied. The six decisions are: to improve leadership, safety protection facilities, safety occupational adaptability evaluation, safety education and training, safety supervision and safety production system.

According to the calculation formula of the decision-making correction strength judgment index I_PT, the analysis diagram of the change of the decision-making correction strength with the time period T_n is calculated as shown in Figure 7.

According to the criterion of correction intensity, with I_PT = 1 as the baseline, safety education and training, improvement of managerial leadership, improvement of safety productivity and strengthening of supervision are more effective in improving the level of group safety behavior in the T₁–T₅ time period. In addition, the preliminary comparison of the four decisions in the T₁–T₅ time period is: safety education and training, improvement of managerial leadership, safety production system and strengthening of safety supervision. The correction intensity of them increases with time, that is, safety education training has the strongest correction intensity in the T₁–T₃ time period and the improvement of the leadership ability of managers and the safety production system has the strongest correction intensity in the T₃–T₄ time period and strengthening supervision is the strongest correction intensity in the T₄–T₅ period. Safety occupational adaptability evaluation and safety protection facilities have a more obvious effect on the improvement of group safety behavior level in the later stage and safety occupational adaptability evaluation has a higher correction intensity.

Research shows that in the organization and management of various decisions, safety education and training, improvement of managerial leadership, safety production system and strengthening of safety supervision are effective in improving the level of group safety behavior in the early stage. Safety occupational adaptability evaluation and safety protection facilities have a better effect on improving the level of group safety behavior in the later stage.

3.3. Safety Culture Intervention

Carry out intervention decision simulation on the SD model of group safety behavior level, increase the intensity of various intervention decision-making interventions in safety culture, respectively: complete safety culture system, reasonable guidance of group subculture, integration of main culture and subculture, safety style construction, shaping employee safety values. The simulation diagram of correction intensity of various intervention decisions of safety culture is shown in Figure 8.

According to the calculation formula of the decision-making correction strength judgment index I_PT, the analysis diagram of the change of the decision-making correction strength with the time period T_N is calculated as shown in Figure 9.

According to the criterion of correction strength, take I_PT = 1 as the baseline. The improvement of safety culture system, the construction of safety style, the reasonable guidance of subculture, the integration of main culture and subculture, and the shaping of employee safety values have a more obvious effect on the correction and improvement of group safety behavior level during the T₁–T₅ period, that is, the improvement of the safety culture system has the strongest correction intensity in the T₁ time period and the construction of safety style and the reasonable guidance of group subcultures have the strongest correction intensity in the T₂ time period, the integration of the main culture and the subculture and the shaping of employee safety values have the strongest correction intensity during the T₃–T₅ period.

Research has shown that in various decisions regarding safety culture, the improvement of safety culture system, the construction of safety styles and the reasonable guidance of group subculture are effective in improving the level of group safety behaviors in the early stage. The integration of the main culture and the subculture and the shaping of employee safety values have good effects on the correction of group safety behavior in the later stage, and the integration of the main culture and the subculture has the best correction effect in the later stage.

4. Discussion

4.1. The Basic Structure

Based on the SD model simulation, this study establishes a “1 + 1 + 3 + X” coal mine worker group safety behavior correction system. Its basic structure is as follows: the first “1” refers to the organizational structure of the correction system and the general plan, the second “1” refers to the mutual operation mechanism and specific operating procedures of various corrective countermeasures,”3” refers to specific intervention measures in the three dimensions of “EAP system”, “organizational management” and “safety culture”, “X” refers to the specific implementation plan. During the implementation of the specific plan, optimization and adjustment should be made according to the actual special requirements of the specific project, and the attachments are other security supports or items that may need additional support. Figure 10 shows the “1 + 1 + 3 + X” correction system structure diagram.

The main content of the general framework of the group safety behavior correction system is to formulate the guidance document for the correction system, explaining the purpose and function of the correction system, the laws and regulations on which it is based, the safety production rules and regulations and the technical specifications and standards for the management of coal enterprises. Identify the department responsible for behavior modification management, the participating units, departments and personnel involved in the various tasks of the behavior modification system and determine the specific division of labor and specific tasks of each unit, department and personnel.

The operation mechanism of the group safety behavior correction system consists of three modules: EAP system, organization management and safety culture, and is based on the orderly development of various decision-making measures in time series, and according to the actual conditions of coal mines, carry out investigations and researches on the special requirements of coal mine enterprises, put forward a specific implementation plan for coal mines and make full preparations for the material guarantees and other requirements required for the operation of the system.

4.2. The Operation Mechanism

According to the simulation results of the model, the operation mechanism and specific implementation plan of the coal mine worker group safety behavior correction system are shown in

Table 3. Operation mechanism and specific implementing scheme of correction system.

Time Quantum	Decision Module	Decision	Specific Plan
Short-term correction	EAP module	Financial safety investment	Ask for the will, build the safety behavior salary growth algorithm, carry out the safety behavior performance appraisal on a regular basis, strictly assess and publicize and give the safety behavior performance reward.
		Carry out recreational and recreational activities	Corporate annual meetings and interactive cultural activities are held on important festivals, which are suitable for the safe life of employees. Parent-child meetings are held regularly every 3 months or so, and rewards and incentives are issued to participating employees.
	Organization and management	Safe production system	The production safety system should be updated and improved dynamically during production, and departments should be set up to implement the system, so as to ensure that laws must be followed and law enforcement must be strictly enforced.
		Safety education and training	The training should be carried out on a regular basis and pay attention to the diversification and interest of training.
		Enhance the leadership of managers	“Go out, bring in” strategy, find their own problems, see the merits of others and cooperate with research institutes and universities to cultivate the management knowledge level of leaders.
	Safety culture	Safety Style Construction	The main node location and announcement installation office will set up eye-catching safety culture slogans, shoot and play safety culture propaganda videos and make and distribute safety culture style manuals.
		Rational guidance of group subculture	Set up small group model to take the lead, positive small group to lead negative small group, positive subculture affirmation, eliminate negative subculture.
		safety culture system perfection	To formulate general rules for the construction of a safe culture and to clarify the tasks and responsibilities of cultural construction.
Long-term correction	EAP module	Upgrade work equipment	Eliminate the equipment with potential safety hazards in time, optimize the equipment and equipment, enhance the operating comfort of employees and install dangerous protective devices.
		Develop psychological counseling and counseling	“Three-shift system” adjusted to “four-shift system”, “less long rest” optimized for “many short breaks”, fun mental health training, condolences to the families of workers and interviews.
	Organization and management	Apply appropriate safety oversight	Safety supervision should be constantly adjusted in production to ensure that the safety behavior of employees is in the best condition.
		Evaluation of occupational safety adaptability	Build a system of occupational adaptability evaluation indicators, regular evaluation and update into the file, do not meet the requirements of job transfer.
	Safety culture	Cultivate employee safety values	Cultivate deep-rooted safety values of workers through cultural construction.
		Main culture and subculture docking and integration	The integration of “mainstream safety culture” and “individual culture” makes the mainstream culture more diversified and more acceptable.

.

4.3. The Verification of the Correction System

The research results of this paper have been applied to coal mining enterprises, and the safety supervision measures have been adjusted in June 2020. This series of measures has been implemented for one year, and employees’ violations have been summarized and analyzed. In order to observe the application effect of management measures on workers’ safety behavior, the evolution trend of employees’ violation behavior is counted from 2020 to 2021, as shown in Figure 11.

Although the number of violations by workers in Figure 10 fluctuates locally, the overall trend is downward. This shows that adjusting management measures and strengthening the strength and frequency of safety supervision can reduce violations and improve their safety behavior.

The data of the same month in 2020 and 2021 will be compared and analyzed to more clearly analyze the evolution trend of employee behavior, as shown in Figure 12.

The engineering application shows that the research results of this paper have positive significance for the safety behavior of coal miners. As can be seen from Figure 11 and Figure 12, the research results of this paper can reduce workers’ violations and promote safety behavior, but there is still room to reduce the number of violations. Therefore, the focus of future research work will be to adopt scientific and reasonable methods to further improve the safety behavior of coal miners.

5. Conclusions

Based on the SD-I_PT, the decision correction intensity discrimination index is established to guide coal mine safety production, and the specific implementation plans is put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:

(1)

The SD model of group safety behavior level of coal mine workers is established. Systemically simulate the SD model of coal mine employees’ group safety behavior level. The evolution law of small group safety behavior in scale and quantity is studied.

(2)

The new type of decision correction strength index I_PT is created. The I_PT of various correction decisions in the three aspects of the EAP system, organizational management and safety culture is calculated, and the correction intensity characteristic of the intervention decision over time is obtained according to the characteristics of the judgment index.

(3)

The “1 + 1 + 3 + X” correction system for the safety behaviors of coal mine workers was established. The specific coal mine implementation plan is proposed for the operating mechanism. It is proved that the correction system has a significant correction and improvement effect on group safety behaviors and individual safety behaviors.