Unlocking Local and Regional Development through Nature-Based Tourism: Exploring the Potential of Agroforestry and Regenerative Livestock Farming in Mexico

Abstract

Nature-based tourism offers several positive effects, including bringing tourists closer to nature and increasing environmental awareness among them, creating new sources of employment, diversifying local and regional economies, promoting the conservation of local ecosystems, and protecting biodiversity. A pilot exercise based on choice experiments is presented to estimate the monetary value per year of nature-based tourism (NbT). The exercise was applied in the Jamapa watershed in Mexico, and the results showed that NbT would amount to USD 7.7 million, with tourism activities linked to agroforestry and USD 5.5 million around regenerative cattle ranching. These results provide input for decision makers in developing public policies to benefit society, nature, and sustainable development.

1. Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a global economic slowdown, causing major impacts on critical sectors like tourism. According to the report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2021), the drop in international tourism caused a loss of more than USD four trillion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2020 and 2021 (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 2021). Developing countries that receive a large income from tourism, such as Mexico, were hit the hardest by these losses (Komasi et al. 2022; Stone et al. 2021). The decline in economic income has also significantly impacted rural or peri-urban communities that rely on tourism as an additional income source alongside primary activities such as agriculture. In this sense, globally, there is a growing notion that many rural or semi-urban communities can adopt green recovery measures to improve their well-being.

Green recovery refers to a series of economic recovery measures aligned with achieving long-term climate change and sustainability goals while creating a more resilient and inclusive socioeconomic model in response to the post-COVID crisis (Mokondoko et al. 2018; Mul et al. 2022). Additionally, this approach offers many benefits over traditional ones, such as creating more jobs, producing higher short-term returns, and leading to a long-term multiplier effect (Corong et al. 2017; Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) 2019; Samora-Arvela et al. 2020; Szabó et al. 2013).

Recreation and tourism are important components of multiple national and local economies, contributing to the quality of life, sense of belonging, social connectedness, physical well-being, learning, and other intangible elements (Fossgard and Stensland 2021; Gambarota and Lorda 2017; Prieto Amparán 2020). A significant and growing strand of interest within recreation is nature-based tourism (NbT), which involves an appreciation of the natural environment or traditional cultures dominant in natural areas (Kabil et al. 2023; Stemmer et al. 2022; World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 2020). Furthermore, NbT is considered an activity that promotes green recovery (Balmford et al. 2009; Räikkönen et al. 2023). In this type of tourism, the characteristics of the environment influence people’s decisions on where, when, and how to use the different ecosystem services (ESs) provided by nature (Gonia and Jezierska-Thöle 2022; Stemmer et al. 2022).

Based on the potential value of the recreational ESs for the Jamapa watershed, located in Veracruz, Mexico, a pilot exercise was carried out for its economic valuation (Kabil et al. 2023); this exercise lays the groundwork for replication in other watersheds of interest, nationally or internationally, as an alternative for green recovery in a post-COVID stage. This exercise focused on tourism linked to agroforestry (shade-grown coffee) and regenerative livestock (silvopastoral systems). We used a choice model methodology to simulate the potential tourists’ willingness to pay (WTP) and the variables that can determine or influence the decision to engage in NbT. The results are an asset in the design of public policies to benefit local and regional development. However, despite the advantages offered by this methodology, its use has been minimal in developing or emerging countries, and literature on the economic measurement of nature tourism is scarce, both nationally and internationally.

2. Conceptual Basis

2.1. Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA)

The conditions of poverty in which a large number of communities live in Mexico and the rest of Latin America have led families to seek livelihood diversification as a strategy to maintain or increase their quality of life and reduce their social and economic vulnerability in the face of multiple situations or contexts (Mauricio et al. 2019), which may be transitory, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, or long-term, such as climate change (Briner et al. 2013). Therefore, diversification and vulnerability can be measured using the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) (Natarajan et al. 2022). This approach, developed by the Sustainable Rural Livelihoods Advisory Committee, considers that all communities have access to five types of assets or forms of capital: human, social, natural, physical, and financial (Figure 1) (Matiku et al. 2021). The combination of these forms of capital, to a greater or lesser extent, allows households and individuals to be more or less resilient in new situations or contexts. Evidence from the literature suggests that education, work experience, and age are the primary determinants of human capital. Inter-household cooperation, community organization, relations with organizations outside the community, and social networks are determinants of social capital. Land ownership and access to natural resources are the primary determinants of natural capital, while infrastructure is crucial for physical capital. Finally, in the case of financial capital, access to markets, income, access to credit, and savings are key factors (Briner et al. 2013; Matiku et al. 2021). These determinants of different capitals help describe household strategies in the context of vulnerability.

In the Jamapa watershed, increasing the use of natural capital sustainably, such as implementing NbT initiatives, can provide an alternative for green recovery. In rural areas, like the majority of the communities in the Jamapa watershed, poverty and, more recently, COVID-19 have greatly affected the income-generating activities of many households. Other sources of income, such as nature-based tourism, can significantly improve the situation of households in these affected communities. In this case, human, social, natural, physical, and financial capital are essential to achieve the desired results of this type of tourism.

In this case, the sustainable use of natural capital through a series of well-preserved ecosystems, such as those in the upper Jamapa watershed, is the central factor for the success of nature-based tourism. These efforts should be accompanied by the human and social capital that have already been developed in Jamapa, as well as the physical and financial support of private and public institutions.

Therefore, the potential of nature-based tourism extends beyond addressing the immediate economic challenges of the Jamapa watershed. This activity could also be an option for other rural or semi-urban areas, offering a supplementary alternative for a more sustainable and resilient development. The pivotal issue is leveraging the natural, human, and social capital that these communities have already developed and supplementing it with the financial support of third parties. Finally, it is important to point out that although human capital, translated into formal training or experience in sources of work, could be a reduced capital in rural communities, the deficiency can be offset by a more significant social capital, where formal and informal agreements exist in these communities for the use and management of natural resources that are considered part of the natural capital. Cooperation and community organization are also critical in rural or peri-urban communities, where implementing NbT can serve as an additional economic activity for households, contributing to economic diversification.

2.2. Nature-Based Tourism as a Diversification Activity

The sustainable use of natural capital can be achieved, for example, by implementing NbT activities linked to certain productive activities such as livestock and agroforestry. Along with better management of nature, these initiatives can contribute to reducing poverty by diversifying community activities and enhancing their adaptive capacities (Fossgard and Stensland 2021; Samora-Arvela et al. 2020). Diversification is important because many households in rural or semi-urban communities rely on only one or two sources of income. Therefore, implementing additional activities, such as nature tourism, can provide a broader range of higher quality and sustainable income sources over time (Samora-Arvela et al. 2020; Räikkönen et al. 2023; Stemmer et al. 2022).

In recent years, tourism has become a fundamental factor in countries’ socioeconomic development (Gonia and Jezierska-Thöle 2022; Matiku et al. 2021), with various forms of tourism, e.g., NbT, which became more critical in the post-COVID stage. However, since NbT is still incipient in developing or emerging countries, such as Mexico, it is necessary to use research methodologies to simulate this type of market ex-ante and measure tourists’ perceptions of the potential implementation of activities in economic terms (Räikkönen et al. 2023). These methodologies often resort to using surveys to calculate the potential of tourism activities in hypothetical markets through market prices, contingent valuation, choice models, and travel costs, among other methodologies (Alessandro et al. 2023; Kularatne et al. 2021; Mukanjari et al. 2022; Räikkönen et al. 2023; Stemmer et al. 2022).

2.3. Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services

Among the research methodologies for measuring the potential for implementing an NbT market is economic valuation (EV), which attempts to assign quantitative values, usually in monetary terms, to ecosystem services, such as recreation, whether they have a market and whether or not they generate a current or potential benefit to society (Blanco-Portillo 2006; de la Peña-Domene et al. 2022; Röhrig et al. 2020). The aim is to analyze some components of the total economic value (TEV) of resources that affect human welfare to estimate ES’ direct and indirect use values. These values include planned benefits and possible future uses (option values) and non-use values, i.e., assets that people do not directly use but that they want to be preserved for future generations or simply for their existence value, can be identified with the EV (Röhrig et al. 2020).

Different methods can be applied to carry out an EV; each has advantages and disadvantages, so they should be used depending on the ES to be analyzed and the context (Polasky 2012). For this case, we used the method of choice model since it allows the assessment of values that do not currently have a market but are of interest. Its implementation was carried out through a recreational experience using the preferences in hypothetical markets; the results can be input for designing public policy.

2.4. Public Policy Based on the Valuation of Ecosystem Services

For decades, public policy formulation had a sectoral approach at the national or regional level, promoting attractive and productive sectors (such as agriculture or manufacturing) for investment to generate employment and thus contribute to economic growth (Lara Pulido et al. 2020). However, at least since 2000, the strategic importance of the environmental component in national, regional, and local growth has been recognized, as well as in the relationship between ecosystems, ESs, and human well-being (Olander et al. 2015), which has become more relevant in the environmental and multilateralism sphere.

Ecosystems provide tangible and intangible benefits to the population for livelihoods, socioeconomic activities, and relationships (Röhrig et al. 2020). Thus, nature is a valuable asset, part of the natural capital of populations, and is crucial in rural or semi-urban areas (de la Peña-Domene et al. 2022). Based on public and private policy design and implementation, this asset can be conserved, capitalized, depreciated, and depleted. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment’s contribution to recognizing the importance of ESs for human well-being (Reid et al. 2005) was complemented by The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity in 2010 (TEEB) (de Groot et al. 2011). These two conceptual frameworks have emphasized the need to design instruments that generate adequate incentives for the conservation and sustainable use of ES. The TEEB points out the importance of the EV of ESs in order to have adequate information, especially financial information, to assess the costs and benefits, both private and social, associated with their use or impact and how public policy can help in their sustainable management (Sukhdev et al. 2014).

3. Methods

3.1. Study Site

The EV of the recreation ecosystem service was conducted in the Jamapa watershed, Veracruz (Figure 2). This watershed extends over 3921 km², including 31 municipalities with 1527 localities (Fondo Golfo de México (FGM) 2022; Fondo Noroeste (FONNOR) 2022). More than half of the watershed’s extension is located in the municipalities of Alvarado, Carrillo Puerto, Cotaxtla, Huatusco, Medellín del Bravo, Paso del Macho, and Soledad de Doblado (Lithgow et al. 2024). Parts of these territories have agroforestry activities (shade-grown coffee) and extensive livestock production. In addition, in the watershed, areas are considered priority zones for biodiversity conservation, including Natural Protected Areas (Fondo Golfo de México (FGM) 2022; Fondo Noroeste (FONNOR) 2022).

According to the Population and Housing Census of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), in recent years, the population in the Jamapa watershed has increased constantly, from 11.6 million people in 1995 (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) 1995) to 14.6 million in 2020 (growth rate of 5.2%) (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) 2020). By 2020, almost 55% of the population were women, almost 5% spoke an indigenous language or considered themselves Afro-Mexicans and 8.5% had a high school education. Regarding the economic situation, the last census of the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social (CONEVAL) 2020) and the National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO) 2020) showed that 65.6% of the people in the region lived in poverty, 23.4% were deprived of access to food, and around 10% were classified as vulnerable due to economic income.

On the other hand, when analyzing the production value of the different economic units in the watershed, measured in monetary terms by the INEGI’s 2020 Census, it is evident that the sectors related to tourism, temporary lodging, food and beverage preparation, and cultural and sports recreation (3.4% and 0.7% of the total, respectively) are among the sectors with the lowest contribution. However, the Jamapa watershed has approximately 150 localities with high tourism potential due to geographic conditions (World Bank group and Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (Grupo Banco Mundial (WB) and Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC) 2022)), high diversity of species and ecosystems, and highly productive and social vocation, where the transition from extensive agriculture and cattle ranching to agroforestry and regenerative cattle ranching has a vast potential and can be linked with NbT activities to increase social, economic, and ecological benefits.

3.2. Description of the Model

A multinomial logit model was estimated in which the economic agent, in this case, the tourist who carries out the NbT activity, whether in the case of agroforestry or regenerative cattle ranching, is faced with several choices through different scenarios with different characteristics. This type of model differs from the traditional logit model in the number of alternatives considered since the traditional model only considers two (O’Brien and Teisl 2004). In this case, potential tourists are given a series of alternatives with different attributes, enabling them to select the one that provides the greatest well-being. This model type is more complex but more insightful than a logit model or just two alternatives since it estimates the economic value the respondents feel with each attribute of the different alternatives.

In the case analyzed, the tourist’s decision was based on the utility of each alternative presented to him in a hypothetical market, whose objective is to measure his willingness to pay (WTP). In this sense, the potential tourist’s utility function is represented by an indirect utility function:

V = v(E, P, M, D)

(1)

where E represents a vector of environmental perceptions that the observer has of the “n” different alternatives presented; P is the vector of prices or positions corresponding to the “n” alternatives; M is the economic income; and D is the vector of individual characteristics such as age, gender, and education, among others.

$$\mathrm{E}=({\mathrm{E}}_1^{\mathrm{S}},{\mathrm{E}}_2^{\mathrm{S}},{\mathrm{E}}_3^{\mathrm{S}},{\mathrm{E}}_4^{\mathrm{S}},\dots \dots \dots \dots \dots \dots ,{\mathrm{E}}_{\mathrm{n}}^{\mathrm{S}})$$

(2)

$$({\mathrm{P}=(\mathrm{P}}_1^{\mathrm{S}},{\mathrm{P}}_2^{\mathrm{S}},{\mathrm{P}}_3^{\mathrm{S}},{\mathrm{P}}_4^{\mathrm{S}},\dots \dots \dots \dots \dots \dots ,{\mathrm{P}}_{\mathrm{n}}^{\mathrm{S}})$$

(3)

The indirect utility function generally increases with respect to the vector of environmental perceptions and income and decreases with respect to price or position. On the other hand, the tourist is confronted with the information (S) that each alternative represents and decides whether to select that alternative but, at the same time, considers the individual characteristics; therefore, we have the following:

Ej. = f(Sj, D)

(4)

If the vector of prices (P) for the “n” alternatives is added to these environmental perceptions, the observer will select the alternative if:

V_i = v(E_i (S_i, D), M-P_i, D) if you select alternative i

(5)

Because E_i, i.e., environmental perceptions, are not always visible, it can be formulated as follows:

V_i = v(S_i, M-P_i, D) if you select alternative i

(6)

and thus, an indirect utility function is calculated, which has a random component and a deterministic component, that is to say

V_i = v(S_i, M-P_i, D) + e_i if you select alternative i

(7)

where V_i is the tourist’s indirect utility function for the consumption of alternative i, which is a function of the tourist’s information, income, price, individual characteristics, and a random (non-quantifiable) component. If the tourist selects option Y_i, it indicates that the utility of that alternative is greater than the utility of another alternative that was available to the person but which they did not select. The probability that the tourist chooses to consume Y_i is equal to the probability that the utility of Y_i is greater than the utility of another alternative:

Pr(Y₁) = Pr [V₁ (S₁, M-P₁, D) + e₁ > V₀ (S₀, M-P₀, D) + e₀]
 Pr(Y₁) = Pr [V₁ (S₁, M-P₁, D) − V₀ (S₀, M-P₀, D) > e₀ − e₁]

(8)

The probability of choosing an alternative can be estimated using a multinomial logit:

$$\mathrm{P}\mathrm{r}\left(\mathrm{Y}1\right)=\frac{e_1^{\mu \nu }}{{\sum }_i^N{e}_i^{\mu \nu }}$$

(9)

where N is the number of alternatives in the selection and i is a scalar parameter usually assumed to be equal to one. This type of model is convenient for estimating ex-ante welfare measures regarding changes in quality or quantity attributes of natural resources for recreation, as is the case of NbT as an optional activity for the future.

For this research, hypothetical scenarios were formulated, with various alternatives, to analyze the decisions of potential nature tourists. This activity is still in its early stages at the study site, and there is no established market. If the nature tourism market is already established or at a higher level of development than that in the Jamapa watershed, other methodologies, such as market prices or travel costs, could also be used. Likewise, it is important to mention that the methodology applied in this research can be replicated in other parts of the world under the conditions or consideration of the study site.

3.3. Choice Experiment and Data Collection

Since there still needs to be a consolidated market for NbT in agroforestry (shade-grown coffee) and regenerative livestock (silvopastoral systems) in the Jamapa watershed, two hypothetical markets were developed to study how potential tourists value this activity in economic terms. Thus, we designed an online survey through a virtual platform (a microsite on the WB website) to obtain socioeconomic information from the respondents and their perceptions about NbT. Hence, different scenarios were planned to determine whether or not potential tourists were willing to carry out this type of activity and their WTP.

The survey consisted of 36 questions grouped into 3 sections. The first section focused on obtaining information on people’s perception and knowledge of NTF with agroforestry and regenerative cattle ranching, as well as on the different characteristics that this type of activity should have. The second section included the choice model scenario, where respondents chose one of three alternatives (Figure 3).

Each alternative had the same attributes or characteristics but varied in the amount of the attribute; that is, each respondent had to consider the following: time (Attribute 1) (“time that you would dedicate to making the trip, from NbT, without considering the time it would take you to travel from your place of residence to the area where the trip takes place”); activity (Attribute 2) (“you may or may not participate in activities associated with the coffee production process”) (“you may or may not participate in activities associated with the milk, cheese and/or beef production process”); contribution (Attribute 3) (“this item considers whether coffee/milk production employs practices that help to conserve nature, such as reforestation and/or vegetation restoration, among others”); and price per person (Attribute 4) (“what you would be willing to pay to access the selected alternative”). In the case of time, there were five levels (2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 h); in the case of activity, two levels (1 = yes, 0 = no); contribution, two levels (1 = yes, 0 = no); and price per person, ten levels (USD 0, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, and 108).

In total, 200 potential alternatives were generated, of which 20 were taken up in this study through an orthogonality analysis. For example, Figure 3 shows one of the available scenarios where the respondent had three alternatives; each alternative had the same attributes but with different values. However, 20 scenarios were designed for NbT with agroforestry and another 20 for regenerative cattle ranching. The different scenarios were randomly assigned among the respondents to maintain statistical representativeness.

Finally, the third section of the survey examined the respondent’s socioeconomic information (age, gender, monthly household income and expenses, education, etc.). The information from the respondents was collected in a database, and the relevant statistical analyses were carried out using the software STATA version 17. We estimated the WTP of potential tourists for carrying out NbT activities linked to agroforestry (shade-grown coffee) and regenerative cattle ranching (silvopastoral systems).

4. Results

4.1. Analysis of Socioeconomic Variables

We obtained 897 survey responses; 66.4% (596) of participants selected the choice experiment for the agroforestry activity and 33.6% (301) for regenerative cattle ranching. In both cases, the experiment had a statistical representativeness of 95% and 90%, respectively, concerning the total number of tourists visiting the watershed.

On average, respondents were between 35 and 39 years, with formal education ranging between high school and a bachelor’s degree, monthly household expenses between USD 880.0 and 1170, and monthly household income between USD 1170 and 1465 (

Table 1. Description of some socioeconomic variables of the sample. Own elaboration, 2024.

Variable	Agroforestry	Regenerative Livestock
Man	43.8%	36.5%
Woman	55.2%	59.5%
I prefer not to say	1%	4%
Age	38.7	35.2
Expenditure (USD)	880.0–1170	880.0–1170
Education	High School–Undergraduate	High School–Undergraduate
Income (USD)	1170–1465	1170–1465

). In addition, there were responses from 30 of Mexico’s 32 states regarding the origin of the potential tourists surveyed. However, Mexico City (CDMX) had the highest proportion (29% agroforestry and 21.6% cattle ranching); Veracruz was among the first three places (12.8% agroforestry and 9.3% cattle ranching).

Finally, in the analysis of potential tourists’ motivations to carry out NbT activities with their families, participants highlighted the degree of forest conservation, followed by the diversity of flora and fauna in the place (

Table 2. Description of some socioeconomic variables of the sample. Own elaboration, 2024.

Suppose You Go Out with Your Family for a Walk in a Forest. For You, What Aspects Are Most Important to Make the Visit Enjoyable? (1 = Not Important at All to 5 = Very Important)	Agroforestry					Regenerative Livestock
	1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	4	5
Accessibility	1.3%	2.7%	17.1%	43.5%	35.4%	3%	6%	20%	40%	31%
Expenses for the visit	1.2%	4.4%	22.8%	50.2%	21.5%	1%	2%	24%	46%	28%
Tourism infrastructure	1.2%	9.4%	24.2%	35.7%	29.5%	1%	9%	21%	41%	29%
Infrastructure for children	4.0%	9.4%	23%	32.6%	31%	13%	14%	20%	26%	28%
Degree of forest conservation	0.3%	0%	1%	13.3%	85.4%	1%	0%	1%	16%	83%
Flora diversity	0%	0.2%	3%	23.8%	73%	1%	1%	7%	24%	67%
Fauna diversity	0%	1%	7.6%	25.2%	66.3%	1%	0%	12%	25%	62%

). In contrast, the aspects with the least importance for the respondents were tourist infrastructure availability and infrastructure for children.

4.2. Tourists’ Willingness to Pay for Nature Tourism Activity

The information obtained through the hypothetical scenarios made it possible to construct two econometric models and identify the relationship that each attribute (price, time, activity, and contribution) may have to carry out or not carry out the NbT activity (alternative 2 or 3). In this sense, we observed that, compared to maintaining the current situation, the probability that the tourist would participate in any of the alternatives increased with time, price, and contribution (

Table 3. Econometric model and willingness to pay (WTP) per tourist for different activities. Own elaboration, 2024.

Multinomial Logistic Regression	Activity		Agroforestry	Regenerative Livestock Farming
	Number of observations		596	301
	LR chi2(8)		276.25	232.17
	Prob > chi2		0.0000	0.0000
	Pseudo R2		0.2254	0.4025
	Agroforestry		Regenerative Livestock Farming
Dependent Variable: Selected Alternative
Independent Variables	Coefficient	P > |Z|	Coefficient	P > |Z|
Alternative 1: Current Tourism	Base or Comparison Scenario
Alternative 2: With Nature Tourism
Price	0.00679	0.0000	0.0288756	0.0600
Weather	0.3474484	0.0000	4.581604	0.0000
Activity	5.714255	0.0000	10.5498	0.0000
Contribution	0.837535	0.0110	6.007493	0.0800
Constant	−10.72533	0.0000	−28.78858	0.0000
DAP per tourist/departure:	USD 29.12		USD 20.83
Alternative 3: With Nature Tourism
Price	0.0032651	0.0000	0.0286902	0.0000
Weather	0.1205965	0.0860	4.778039	0.0900
Activity	3.674029	0.0000	9.462583	0.0000
Contribution	0.6208164	0.0000	6.451241	0.0310
Constant	−5.036001	0.0000	−29.43335	0.0000
DAP per tourist/departure:	USD 22.55		USD 20.56

). Additionally, the option of tourists’ participation in production activities (agroforestry or regenerative cattle ranching) also influences the probability of carrying out the NbT activity. Productive activities can add value to the tourist experience by offering a greater connection with the natural environment and the possibility of actively contributing to the conservation and sustainability of the visited region.

The WTP of tourists for an NbT outing differed depending on whether it was associated with agroforestry or regenerative cattle ranching. In the first case, the monetary value was between USD 22.5 and 29.1 per trip per person, while in the second case, it was between USD 20.6 and 20.8. In other words, nature tourists valued tourism with agroforestry higher compared to regenerative cattle ranching.

The WTP per tourist/output/year analysis considered that a proportion of the tourists per year visiting Veracruz could be attracted to Jamapa to carry out one of the two NbT options. For example, if 1% of the state’s tourists (53,324 tourists) were attracted to Jamapa, the monetary value of NbT per year would be USD 1.5 million for activities associated with agroforestry and USD 1.1 million for regenerative cattle ranching, a value that would increase according to the proportion of tourists (

Table 4. Economic value of recreation ESs in Jamapa watershed. Own elaboration, 2024.

	Percentage of Tourists That Would Visit Jamapa with Respect to the Number of Tourists Arriving in the State of Veracruz
	1%	5%	10%
Number of tourists	53,324	266,622	533,243
Economic value per year	USD	USD	USD
Agroforestry	$1,552,649	$7,763,246	$15,526,492
Regenerative livestock farming	$1,110,614	$5,553,070	$11,106,140

).

Finally, about 70% of the respondents expressed interest in going on a nature tour in the Jamapa watershed in the near future (

Table 5. Probability of visiting the Jamapa watershed for nature tourism activities.

If a Nature Trail Were to Be Implemented in the Jamapa River Watershed, How Likely Would You be to Visit It? (1 = Not Very Likely, 5 = Highly Likely)	1	2	3	4	5	Total
Agroforestry	3.2%	2.5%	25.8%	30.7%	37.8%	596
Regenerative livestock farming	2.3%	6%	21.9%	30.6%	39.2%	301

).

5. Discussion

The limited productive diversification in the Jamapa watershed, coupled with the levels of poverty and social vulnerability, as well as the post-COVID context, presents an opportunity to enhance some of the assets or forms of capital in the SLA framework. In Jamapa’s communities and other urban or peri-urban areas with a large capacity of natural capital, it is critical to leverage this resource to benefit vulnerable households. Simultaneously, the underutilized natural capital in these areas increases the likelihood of successfully implementing nature-based tourism (NbT), thereby adding to higher social and human capital levels in these locations.

In that sense, we present the potential of NbT development measured monetarily, amounting to approximately USD 7.7 million for the case of tourism with agroforestry and USD 5.5 million with regenerative cattle ranching, assuming that only 5% of the tourists arriving in the state of Veracruz would visit the Jamapa watershed. Thus, NbT can be an alternative for local and regional development to improve the population’s well-being, especially if vulnerable groups are included.

The values found can contribute to planning, developing, and implementing public policies and projects focused on conserving and recovering ecosystems and increasing their economic benefits. At the international level, there are countries, such as Costa Rica and Spain, where NbT is already a consolidated sector that generates substantial benefits for society. In the case of Spain, it was estimated that the number of nature tourists per year ranges between 28 and 65 million, equivalent to 12% and 29% of total visits, and generates approximately USD 9.7 billion in tourist spending (Gupta et al. 2023). Likewise, for almost a decade, globally, NbT in natural protected areas represented around 8 billion visits, generating up to USD 570 billion in tourism spending per year (Gupta et al. 2023), with a direct impact on the communities living near these areas and becoming alternative sources of income (Balmford et al. 2015; Thapa et al. 2022).

For the case under study, promoting NbT would allow income diversification in a watershed where two-thirds of the population is poor and a significant part depends on one or two economic activities, such as livestock and agriculture (Grupo Banco Mundial (WB), and Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC) 2022). In other words, these alternatives could make communities more resilient to crises, including the effects of climate change and shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic (Mul et al. 2022; Natarajan et al. 2022; Stone et al. 2021).

Furthermore, given that the NbT depends on the existence of natural elements, its implementation could favor the conservation of critical ecosystem relicts (de la Peña-Domene et al. 2022), such as the cloud forest, as well as the recovery of corridors in highly transformed areas, such as the middle and lower part of the Jamapa watershed, particularly the wetlands. Thus, among the benefits of NbT would be the conservation and recovery of functional connectivity in productive landscapes and other ESs besides recreation (Lithgow et al. 2024; Von Thaden et al. 2024). At the same time, NbT promotes the preservation of cultural heritage by increasing the sense of belonging and revitalizing cultural aspects, such as traditional knowledge and techniques, and encouraging the participation of communities in conservation efforts (Balmford et al. 2015; Thapa et al. 2022). On the other hand, NbT requires stakeholders’ training and raising awareness, which could lead to an increased willingness to participate in individual or collective actions focused on nature protection (O’Brien and Teisl 2004).

Regarding public policy, the valuation of recreation ESs, e.g., NbT, could support decision making regarding conservation and sustainable use of priority watersheds (Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC) 2020). For example, decision makers (i) can analyze the suitability of a natural protected area or implement conservation actions to preserve the natural assets on which tourism activities depend, (ii) determining the carrying capacity to avoid visitors’ damage, (iii) justifying from a technical standpoint to increase or seek new funding for sites of conservation importance, (iv) prioritizing areas with high recreational value and promote the inclusion of green spaces and corridors in development plans with the participation of the communities, (v) creating measures to prevent land use change in key conservation sites, (vi) considering the environmental impact and costs from development projects that degrade nature areas that are suitable for recreation, and (vii) focusing resources to prioritize actions and obtain financing, among others (Lilli et al. 2020; Natarajan et al. 2022; Ring et al. 2010; Welden et al. 2021).

6. Conclusions

Nature-based tourism associated with agroforestry and cattle ranching is a viable activity in the Jamapa watershed, although potential tourists are willing to pay more for the first option. The economic tool used for the ES valuation can aid decision making in different projects, places, contexts, and problems, including climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives (Lara Pulido et al. 2020; Olander et al. 2015; Reid et al. 2005).

Although an NbT strategy under the SLA framework in Jamapa could have multiple benefits, it requires enhancing human and social capital through collaboration and aligned efforts by the government, academia, and NGOs already working in the watershed. For example, human capital can be increased through capacity-building programs that strengthen local skills needed to create sustainable tourism ventures which enhance livelihoods while preserving their primary productive activities and natural and cultural heritage.

Among the desired competencies related to human capital are (a) environmental education to identify local biodiversity that could attract tourist interest and understanding of the potential impacts of tourism on ecosystems, including agroforestry or regenerative livestock farming systems, as well as impact mitigation strategies; (b) tourism management to provide high-quality experiences for tourists, including safety protocols and guided tours that highlight local productive and conservation efforts, and other eco-friendly activities; (c) basic accounting, budgeting, and financial planning skills to evaluate the economic feasibility of each effort and business effectively; and (d) the development of resilience strategies to cope with environmental and economic shocks, such as the effects of COVID-19 and climate change.

Furthermore, the rich cultural heritage and traditional knowledge of Jamapa’s rural communities are other key aspects that could lead to a successful NbT effort. Utilizing this social capital, these communities can provide unique tourist experiences while strengthening their identity. However, the maximization of these assets relies on other social capital aspects, such as their capacity for collective action and decision making. These aspects are essential in establishing equitable benefit-sharing mechanisms, creating networks, and developing collaborative skills to work with other producers and stakeholders, such as the government and the private sector.

In the same sense, building partnerships and developing capacities for accessing resources are vital to implementing NbT as a resilient and diversified livelihood strategy that could help communities better withstand future challenges.

The findings of this study can be valuable for strategic planning, such as the Integrated Watershed Management Action Plan (IWAP) of the Jamapa watershed, and support other management instruments, like the Veracruz Climate Change Program. In the case of the IWAPs in Mexico or other programs at the national or international level, EV can be a relevant input for prioritizing conservation actions (Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (INECC) 2020), whereby different actions’ effects can be estimated in terms of biophysical impacts on ESs, and subsequently in economic terms regarding social well-being (Gambarota and Lorda 2017; Mukanjari et al. 2022; Räikkönen et al. 2023; Samora-Arvela et al. 2020).

Likewise, NbT under the SLA approach is compatible with climate-smart production practices (Manes et al. 2022) and aligning both strategies would favor the holistic transition towards sustainable landscape management. In this way, innovative approaches can foster a shift from the agricultural sector’s dominance to the promotion of diversification of activities, including those associated with the agricultural tourism sector or agritourism (Astarini et al. 2024; Lithgow et al. 2024).

Finally, it is worth highlighting that NbT in areas where conserved ecosystems can be sustainably used more extensively and co-occur with climate-smart practices, such as agroforestry or regenerative livestock farming systems, offers an alternative for diversifying society’s income sources, which is particularly relevant in vulnerable communities. Simultaneously, in these communities with high natural capital, the successful development of NbT could be positively influenced by conditions with high social and human capital, often found in rural communities such as in Jamapa. However, developing this kind of tourism requires financial investment and infrastructure, which may involve the private and public sectors.