The Empirical Explanatory Power of CAPM and the Fama and French Three-Five Factor Models in the Moroccan Stock Exchange
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- To test the ability of the CAPM, FF3F and FF5F models to capture the variations in Moroccan stock returns;
- To compare the performance of the three models in order to determine which model outperforms the others in explaining Moroccan returns;
- To examine redundant factors, with the purpose of finding out which factors explain the greater part of Moroccan stock returns.
2. Literature Review
3. Data and Variables Description
3.1. Data Selection
3.2. Factors Formation
3.3. Left-Hand-Side Portfolios Formation
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Descriptive Statistics for RHS Factors’ Return
4.2. Average Excess Returns for LHS Portfolios
4.3. Factor Spanning Tests
4.4. Summary Asset Pricing Tests (GRS)
4.5. Asset Pricing Details
4.5.1. Size–B/M Sorts
4.5.2. Size–OP Sorts
4.5.3. Size–Investment Sorts
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
1 | M. M. Carhart (1997) proposed the Carhart Four Factor Model by introducing into the FF3F model a momentum-mimicking risk factor. |
2 | In North Africa, Morocco takes the lead in terms of the equity of market capitalization in the Maghreb (USD 65.6, 57.1% of GDP), followed by Egypt (USD 41.4 billion, 11.3% of GDP) and Tunisia (USD 8.5 billion, 20.6% of GDP). In sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa has the highest market capitalization (USD 1 trillion, 313.5% of GDP), followed by Nigeria (USD 56 billion, 12% of GDP), Kenya (USD 21.4 billion, 13.1% of GDP) and Ghana (USD 9.2 billion, 13.5% of GDP). EIB, La finance en Afrique, naviguer en eaux troubles, 2022. |
3 | Available on the Moroccan stock exchange website: www.casablanca-bourse.com. (Accessed on 4 April 2022) |
4 | Fama and French (2015) employed three separate methods—2 × 3, 2 × 2 and 2 × 2 × 2 × 2—to contrast the five factors. The authors argue that the choice of any sort is arbitrary, as the results are similar. |
5 | Due to the small sample of our study, it was difficult to form effectively diversified portfolios. The 20th and 40th percentiles are the best combinations. For their part, Cox and Britten (2019) used the 33rd and 66th percentiles for the Johannesburg stock exchange. |
6 | Fama and French (2017) revealed that, for Japan, the average Mkt Return is near zero (0.01% per month). Negative average value is also found by several authors in different markets’ stock exchanges, such as the Nairobi stock market (Achola and Muriu 2016), Amman’s stock market (Alrabadi and Alrabadi 2018) and the Polish stock market (Zaremba et al. 2019). |
7 | According to Fama and French (2017), a low value of Aai²/Ari² bodes well for an asset pricing model. In contrast, a low value of As²(ai)/ Aai² is less favorable. |
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Factors | Mean (%) | t-Statistic | Standard Deviation (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Mkt | −1.77245 | −5.2688 * | 4.94413 |
SMB | 0.92233 | 2.2008 ** | 6.15922 |
HML | 0.79783 | 1.9919 *** | 5.88671 |
RMW | 0.40951 | 0.9639 | 6.24408 |
CMA | 0.23419 | 0.595 | 5.78424 |
Mkt | SMB | HML | RMW | CMA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mkt | 1 | ||||
SMB | −0.312 | 1 | |||
HML | −0.050 | 0.115 | 1 | ||
RMW | 0.047 | 0.382 | −0.186 | 1 | |
CMA | −0.114 | −0.159 | −0.182 | −0.444 | 1 |
Sort A: Size–B/M | |||
---|---|---|---|
Low | Medium | High | |
Small | −0.017 | −0.004 | −0.011 |
(−3.2625) | (−0.6292) | (−2.5646) | |
Standard deviation | 7.705% | 10.141% | 6.458% |
Big | −0.019 | −0.019 | −0.006 |
(−5.4056) | (−5.0198) | (−0.9878) | |
Standard deviation | 5.216% | 5.615% | 9.00% |
Sort B: Size–OP | |||
Weak | Medium | Robust | |
Small | −0.011 | −0.009 | −0.003 |
(−2.5193) | (−1.4973) | (−0.4503) | |
Standard deviation | 6.724% | 9.014% | 10.971% |
Big | −0.016 | −0.019 | −0.017 |
(−2.6514) | (−4.8500) | (−4.8422) | |
Standard deviation | 9.107% | 6.013% | 5.267% |
Sort C: Size–INV | |||
Conservative | Medium | Aggressive | |
Small | −0.003 | −0.018 | −0.005 |
(−0.5916) | (−3.6919) | (−0.6534) | |
Standard deviation | 7.686% | 7.283% | 10.861% |
Big | −0.017 | −0.021 | −0.011 |
(−5.0468) | (−3.9738) | (−1.9411) | |
Standard deviation | 5.051% | 7.661% | 8.329% |
Coefficient | t-Statistic | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Int | Mkt | SMB | HML | RMW | CMA | Int | Mkt | SMB | HML | RMW | CMA | Adjusted R² | |
Mkt | −0.015 | −0.309 | 0.001 | 0.115 | −0.095 | −4.680 * | −5.429 | 0.012 | 1.774 | −1.478 | 0.123 | ||
SMB | −0.001 | −0.397 | 0.199 | 0.444 | 0.041 | −0.341 | −5.429 | 3.056 | 6.603 | 0.564 | 0.273 | ||
HML | 0.008 | 0.001 | 0.213 | −0.395 | −0.338 | 2.141 ** | 0.012 | 3.056 | −5.540 | −4.706 | 0.148 | ||
RMW | 0.006 | 0.128 | 0.386 | −0.321 | −0.461 | 1.810 *** | 1.774 | 6.603 | −5.540 | −7.647 | 0.385 | ||
CMA | 0.004 | −0.108 | 0.037 | −0.281 | −0.471 | 1.176 | −1.478 | 0.564 | −4.706 | −7.647 | 0.268 |
Model Factors | GRS | p(GRS) | AR² | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sort A: 2 × 3 size-B/M | ||||||
Mkt | 2.86 | 0.01 | 0.0064 | 0.86 | 0.45 | 0.29 |
Mkt SMB HML | 4.26 | 0.00 | 0.0048 | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.55 |
Mkt SMB HML RMW CMA | 3.73 | 0.00 | 0.0043 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.60 |
Mkt HML RMW | 2.97 | 0.01 | 0.0049 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.46 |
Sort B: 2 × 3 size-OP | ||||||
Mkt | 1.58 | 0.15 | 0.0046 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.30 |
Mkt SMB HML | 1.67 | 0.13 | 0.0046 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.50 |
Mkt SMB HML RMW CMA | 1.47 | 0.19 | 0.0038 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.63 |
Mkt HML RMW | 1.33 | 0.24 | 0.0035 | 0.47 | 0.79 | 0.45 |
Sort C: 2 × 3 size-Inv | ||||||
Mkt | 2.38 | 0.03 | 0.0069 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 0.31 |
Mkt SMB HML | 2.04 | 0.06 | 0.0056 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.49 |
Mkt SMB HML RMW CMA | 2.41 | 0.03 | 0.0054 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 0.62 |
Mkt HML RMW | 1.92 | 0.08 | 0.0057 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.40 |
Dependent Variables | CAPM | FF3F Model | FF5F Model | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alpha | Rm-Rf | R² | Alpha | Rm-Rf | SMB | HML | R² | Alpha | Rm-Rf | SMB | HML | RMW | CMA | R² | ||
SL | Coeff. | −0.01 | 0.416 | 0.067 | −0.008 | 0.649 | 0.678 | −0.505 | 0.435 | −0.008 | 0.613 | 0.640 | −0.522 | 0.025 | −0.139 | 0.442 |
t-stat | −1.808 | 4.054 * | −1.857 | 7.718 * | 9.987 * | −7.477 * | −1.836 | 7.167 * | 8.482 * | −7.157 * | 0.307 | −1.739 | ||||
SMHL | Coeff. | 0.007 | 0.621 | 0.087 | 0.001 | 1.074 | 1.094 | 0.475 | 0.597 | 0.000 | 0.967 | 0.959 | 0.459 | 0.156 | −0.330 | 0.648 |
t-stat | 0.951 | 4.644 * | 0.172 | 11.485 * | 14.500 * | 6.325 * | 0.097 | 10.812 * | 12.159 * | 6.016 * | 1.844 | −3.936 * | ||||
SH | Coeff. | −0.003 | 0.458 | 0.119 | −0.007 | 0.666 | 0.48 | 0.371 | 0.449 | −0.005 | 0.822 | 0.739 | 0.301 | −0.452 | 0.247 | 0.718 |
t-stat | −0.719 | 5.476 * | −1.962 | 9.576 * | 8.545 * | 6.633 * | −1.844 | 16.128 * | 16.425 * | 6.930 * | −9.367 * | 5.184 * | ||||
BL | Coeff. | −0.001 | 1.036 | 0.965 | 0.000 | 1.027 | −0.008 | −0.099 | 0.977 | 0.000 | 1.025 | −0.011 | −0.099 | 0.003 | −0.007 | 0.977 |
t-stat | −1.153 | 76.825 * | −0.201 | 90.117 * | −0.878 | −10.765 * | −0.21 | 87.569 * | −1.049 | −9.924 * | 0.275 | −0.648 | ||||
BMHL | Coeff. | −0.008 | 0.616 | 0.291 | −0.009 | 0.599 | −0.057 | 0.080 | 0.294 | −0.009 | 0.618 | −0.039 | 0.091 | −0.009 | 0.078 | 0.294 |
t-stat | −2.415 * | 9.454 * | −2.526 * | 8.747 * | −1.037 | 1.452 | 5.551 ** | 8.810 * | −0.623 | 1.515 | −0.137 | 1.189 | ||||
BH | Coeff. | 0.010 | 0.891 | 0.236 | 0.004 | 0.844 | −0.252 | 0.844 | 0.545 | 0.004 | 0.869 | −0.228 | 0.859 | −0.01 | 0.107 | 0.545 |
t-stat | 1.713 | 8.210 * | 1.018 | 9.571 * | −3.540 * | 11.913 * | 0.985 | 9.631 * | −2.859 ** | 11.171 * | −0.113 | 1.267 | ||||
Average Adjusted R² | 0.294 | 0.550 | 0.604 |
Dependent Variables | CAPM | FF3F Model | FF5F Model | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alpha | Rm-Rf | R² | Alpha | Rm-Rf | SMB | HML | R² | Alpha | Rm-Rf | SMB | HML | RMW | CMA | R² | ||
SW | Coeff. | −0.003 | 0.509 | 0.136 | −0.006 | 0.76 | 0.603 | 0.283 | 0.497 | −0.002 | 0.936 | 0.938 | 0.139 | −0.666 | 0.114 | 0.852 |
t-stat | −0.555 | 5.902 * | −1.695 | 10.978 * | −1.695 | 5.094 * | −1.181 | 24.364 * | 27.696 * | 4.243 | −18.342 * | 3.174 * | ||||
SMRW | Coeff. | −0.001 | 0.479 | 0.065 | −0.001 | 0.725 | 0.657 | −0.142 | 0.241 | −0.001 | 0.803 | 0.747 | −0.116 | −0.080 | 0.277 | 0.274 |
t-stat | −0.111 | 3.980 * | −0.220 | 6.360 * | 7.143 * | −1.553 | −0.218 | 7.032 * | 7.412 * | −1.192 | −0.744 | 2.595 ** | ||||
SR | Coeff. | 0.009 | 0.708 | 0.098 | 0.005 | 1.255 | 1.391 | 0.108 | 0.660 | 0.002 | 1.047 | 0.002 | 0.211 | 0.626 | −0.305 | 0.828 |
t-stat | 1.221 | 4.929 * | 1.115 | 13.522 * | 18.575 * | 1.446 | 0.621 | 15.458 * | 17.407 * | 3.649 | 9.770 * | −4.811 * | ||||
BW | Coeff. | 0.004 | 1.149 | 0.386 | 0.002 | 1.033 | −0.349 | 0.33 | 0.467 | 0.007 | 1.115 | −0.073 | 0.081 | −0.743 | −0.406 | 0.624 |
t-stat | 0.762 | 11.672 * | 0.510 | 10.705 * | −4.474 * | 4.254 * | 1.796 | 13.428 * | −1.003 | 1.140 | −9.465 * | −5.222 * | ||||
BMRW | Coeff. | −0.011 | 0.524 | 0.182 | −0.012 | 0.556 | 0.058 | 0.161 | 0.204 | −0.010 | 0.613 | 0.189 | 0.081 | −0.295 | −0.047 | 0.261 |
t-stat | −2.685 ** | 6.979 * | −3.025 * | 7.139 * | 0.930 | 2.568 ** | −2.650 ** | 7.977 * | 2.784 ** | 1.231 | −4.057 * | −0.655 | ||||
BR | Coeff. | 0.001 | 1.015 | 0.907 | 0.001 | 1.002 | −0.022 | −0.064 | 0.912 | 0.000 | 0.979 | −0.092 | −0.005 | 0.181 | 0.086 | 0.940 |
t-stat | 0.546 | 45.802 * | 0.994 | 44.262 * | −1.211 | −3.518 * | −0.047 | 51.069 * | −5.423 * | −0.334 | 9.996 * | 4.765 * | ||||
Average Adjusted R² | 0.295 | 0.497 | 0.630 |
Dependent Variables | CAPM | FF3F Model | FF5F Model | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alpha | Rm-Rf | R² | Alpha | Rm-Rf | SMB | HML | R² | Alpha | Rm-Rf | SMB | HML | RMW | CMA | R² | ||
SC | Coeff. | 0.007 | 0.579 | 0.135 | 0.005 | 0.848 | 0.673 | 0.131 | 0.414 | 0.005 | 1.05 | 0.894 | 0.214 | −0.173 | 0.753 | 0.790 |
t-stat | 1.388 | 5.875 * | 1.095 | 9.931 * | 9.757 * | 1.914 | 1.744 | 20.034 * | 19.340 * | 4.781 * | −3.492 * | 15.362 * | ||||
SMCA | Coeff. | −0.009 | 0.503 | 0.112 | −0.011 | 0.672 | 0.415 | 0.137 | 0.237 | −0.009 | 0.781 | 0.629 | 0.039 | −0.435 | 0.049 | 0.352 |
t-stat | −1.892 | 5.309 * | −2.443 ** | 7.275 * | 5.570 * | 1.847 | −2.068 ** | 8.966 * | 8.187 * | 0.521 | −5.276 * | 0.599 | ||||
SA | Coeff. | 0.008 | 0.716 | 0.102 | 0.002 | 1.259 | 1.33 | 0.459 | 0.715 | 0.002 | 1.056 | 1.107 | 0.376 | 0.174 | −0.760 | 0.906 |
t-stat | 1.056 | 5.042 * | 0.371 | 14.958 * | 19.570 * | 6.790 * | 0.717 | 21.379 * | 25.401 * | 8.936 * | 3.730 * | −16.434 * | ||||
BC | Coeff. | −0.003 | 0.830 | 0.659 | −0.003 | 0.835 | 0.008 | 0.031 | 0.657 | −0.004 | 0.858 | −0.006 | 0.101 | 0.125 | 0.238 | 0.709 |
t-stat | −1.232 | 20.406 * | −1.328 | 19.455 * | 0.237 | 0.887 | −1.974 | 21.183 * | −0.182 | 2.914 * | 3.261 * | 6.290 * | ||||
BMCA | Coeff. | −0.004 | 0.924 | 0.353 | −0.005 | 0.923 | −0.017 | 0.099 | 0.352 | −0.004 | 0.942 | 0.034 | 0.059 | −0.129 | −0.050 | 0.353 |
t-stat | −0.973 | 10.868 * | −1.11 | 10.316 * | −0.238 | 1.379 | −0.921 | 10.283 * | 0.427 | 0.758 | −1.493 | −0.582 | ||||
BA | Coeff. | 0.010 | 1.170 | 0.480 | 0.008 | 1.088 | −0.266 | 0.350 | 0.562 | 0.009 | 1.033 | −0.280 | 0.258 | −0.119 | −0.382 | 0.612 |
t-stat | 2.242 ** | 14.121 * | 1.98 | 13.600 * | −4.113 * | 5.446 * | 2.419 ** | 13.381 * | −4.118 * | 3.919 * | −1.626 | −5.285 * | ||||
Average Adjusted R² | 0.307 | 0.490 | 0.620 |
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Alaoui Taib, A.; Benfeddoul, S. The Empirical Explanatory Power of CAPM and the Fama and French Three-Five Factor Models in the Moroccan Stock Exchange. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2023, 11, 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010047
Alaoui Taib A, Benfeddoul S. The Empirical Explanatory Power of CAPM and the Fama and French Three-Five Factor Models in the Moroccan Stock Exchange. International Journal of Financial Studies. 2023; 11(1):47. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010047
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlaoui Taib, Asmâa, and Safae Benfeddoul. 2023. "The Empirical Explanatory Power of CAPM and the Fama and French Three-Five Factor Models in the Moroccan Stock Exchange" International Journal of Financial Studies 11, no. 1: 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010047
APA StyleAlaoui Taib, A., & Benfeddoul, S. (2023). The Empirical Explanatory Power of CAPM and the Fama and French Three-Five Factor Models in the Moroccan Stock Exchange. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(1), 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010047