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Aerospace
Volume 9
Issue 6
10.3390/aerospace9060311
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Article

Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method

by
Xing Pan
1,
Song Ding
1,
Wenjin Zhang
1,*,
Tun Liu
1,
Liqin Wang
2 and
Lijing Wang
3
1
School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
2
Beijing Special Engineering and Design Institute, Beijing 100082, China
3
School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Aerospace 2022, 9(6), 311; https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9060311
Submission received: 19 April 2022 / Revised: 4 June 2022 / Accepted: 5 June 2022 / Published: 9 June 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Astronautics & Space Science)
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Abstract

Space launch projects are extremely risky, and any equipment failure or human error may lead to disastrous consequences. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is beneficial to qualitative analysis of risk, but it has not been paid enough attention in risk analysis for space launch systems (SLSs). Compared with most qualitative risk analysis in this field, this paper proposes a risk analysis framework based on Bayesian network (BN) with fuzzy method, which is suitable for probabilistic risk analysis of SLS. This method establishes a risk analysis model of SLS based on statistics and expert experience and reduces the uncertainty of the model by using fuzzy theory. By predicting the system risk probabilities, diagnosing the key risk causes, determining the risk conduction path, and performing a sensitivity analysis, the proposed risk analysis framework is aimed at alleviating this drawback to deal more effectively with the uncertainties in the field of space launches. A case study of space launches demonstrates and verifies the proposed method, and it also provides guidance for similar engineering projects.
Keywords: probability risk assessment; Bayesian network; fuzzy method; space launch system probability risk assessment; Bayesian network; fuzzy method; space launch system

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MDPI and ACS Style

Pan, X.; Ding, S.; Zhang, W.; Liu, T.; Wang, L.; Wang, L. Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method. Aerospace 2022, 9, 311. https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9060311

AMA Style

Pan X, Ding S, Zhang W, Liu T, Wang L, Wang L. Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method. Aerospace. 2022; 9(6):311. https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9060311

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pan, Xing, Song Ding, Wenjin Zhang, Tun Liu, Liqin Wang, and Lijing Wang. 2022. "Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method" Aerospace 9, no. 6: 311. https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9060311

APA Style

Pan, X., Ding, S., Zhang, W., Liu, T., Wang, L., & Wang, L. (2022). Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Space Launches Using Bayesian Network with Fuzzy Method. Aerospace, 9(6), 311. https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9060311

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