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Aerospace, Volume 1, Issue 3 (December 2014) , Pages 97-136

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Open AccessReview
Human-in-the-Loop (HITL): Probabilistic Predictive Modeling (PPM) of an Aerospace Mission/Situation Outcome
Aerospace 2014, 1(3), 101-136; https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace1030101
Received: 14 November 2014 / Revised: 11 December 2014 / Accepted: 16 December 2014 / Published: 19 December 2014
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2616 | PDF Full-text (1217 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Improvements in safety in the air and in space can be achieved through better ergonomics, better work environment, and other efforts of the traditional avionic psychology that directly affect human behaviors and performance. There is also a significant potential, however, for further reduction [...] Read more.
Improvements in safety in the air and in space can be achieved through better ergonomics, better work environment, and other efforts of the traditional avionic psychology that directly affect human behaviors and performance. There is also a significant potential, however, for further reduction in aerospace accidents and casualties through better understanding the role that various uncertainties play in the planner’s and operator’s worlds of work, when never-perfect human, never failure-free navigation equipment and instrumentation, never hundred-percent-predictable response of the object of control (air- or space-craft), and uncertain-and-often-harsh environments contribute jointly to the likelihood of a mishap. By employing quantifiable and measurable ways of assessing the role and significance of such uncertainties and treating a human-in-the-loop (HITL) as a part, often the most crucial part, of a complex man–instrumentation–equipment–vehicle–environment system, one could improve dramatically the state-of-the-art in assuring aerospace operational safety. This can be done by predicting, quantifying and, if necessary, even specifying an adequate (low enough) probability of a possible accident. Nothing and nobody is perfect, of course, and the difference between a highly reliable object, product, performance or a mission and an insufficiently reliable one is “merely” in the level of the never-zero probability of failure. Application of the probabilistic predictive modeling (PPM) concept provides a natural and an effective means for reduction of vehicular casualties. When success and safety are imperative, ability to predict and quantify the outcome of an HITL related mission or a situation is a must. This is not the current practice though. The application of the PPM concept can improve therefore the state-of-the-art in understanding and accounting for the human performance in a vehicular mission or a situation. While the traditional statistical human-factor-oriented approaches are based on experimentations followed by statistical analyses, the PPM concept is based on, and starts with, physically meaningful and flexible predictive modeling followed by highly focused and highly cost effective experimentations geared to the chosen governing model(s). The PPT concept enables one to quantify, on the probabilistic basis, the outcome of a particular HITL related effort, situation or a mission. If the predicted outcome, in terms of the most likely probability of the operational failure, is not favorable, then an appropriate sensitivity analysis (SA) based on the developed and available algorithms can be effectively conducted to improve the situation. With the appropriate modifications and generalizations, such a cost-effective and insightful approach is applicable to numerous, not even necessarily in the aerospace and vehicular domain, HITL related missions and situations, when a human encounters an uncertain environment or a hazardous off-normal situation. The suggested approach is applicable also when there is an incentive to quantify human’s qualifications and performance, and/or when there is a need to assess and possibly improve his/her role in a particular mission or a situation. The general PPM concepts are illustrated in this analysis by addressing several more or less typical aerospace HITL related problems and by providing meaningful numerical examples. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Driving Forward Aerospace Innovation)
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Open AccessEditorial
Special Issue: Aviation Alternative Fuels
Aerospace 2014, 1(3), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace1030100
Received: 12 December 2014 / Accepted: 15 December 2014 / Published: 16 December 2014
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2569 | PDF Full-text (581 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
The investigation of aviation alternative fuels has increased significantly in recent years in an effort to reduce the environment and climate impact by aviation industry. Special requirements have to be met for qualifying as a suitable aviation fuel. The fuel has to be [...] Read more.
The investigation of aviation alternative fuels has increased significantly in recent years in an effort to reduce the environment and climate impact by aviation industry. Special requirements have to be met for qualifying as a suitable aviation fuel. The fuel has to be high in energy content per unit of mass and volume, thermally stable and avoiding freezing at low temperatures. There are also many other special requirements on viscosity, ignition properties and compatibility with the typical aviation materials. There are quite a few contending alternative fuels which can be derived from coal, natural gas and biomass.[...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Aviation Alternative Fuels and Energies)
Open AccessEditorial
Special Issue: Adaptive/Smart Structures and Multifunctional Materials with Application to Morphing Aircraft
Aerospace 2014, 1(3), 98-99; https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace1030098
Received: 15 December 2014 / Accepted: 15 December 2014 / Published: 16 December 2014
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Abstract
Recent advances in smart structures and multifunctional materials have facilitated many novel aerospace technologies such as morphing aircraft. A morphing aircraft, bio-inspired by natural fliers, has gained a lot of interest as a potential technology to meet the ambitious goals of the Advisory [...] Read more.
Recent advances in smart structures and multifunctional materials have facilitated many novel aerospace technologies such as morphing aircraft. A morphing aircraft, bio-inspired by natural fliers, has gained a lot of interest as a potential technology to meet the ambitious goals of the Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE) Vision 2020 and the FlightPath 2050 documents. A morphing aircraft continuously adjusts its wing geometry to enhance flight performance, control authority, and multi-mission capability.[...] Full article
Open AccessEditorial
Aerospace—An Open Access Journal
Received: 12 November 2014 / Accepted: 12 November 2014 / Published: 13 November 2014
Viewed by 2175 | PDF Full-text (578 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Welcome to Aerospace, an open journal covering aerospace science, engineering and technology. We seek to publish theoretical, fundamental, and applied results linked to potential applications related to research, design, manufacture, operations, control and maintenance of aircraft and spacecraft. A full description of [...] Read more.
Welcome to Aerospace, an open journal covering aerospace science, engineering and technology. We seek to publish theoretical, fundamental, and applied results linked to potential applications related to research, design, manufacture, operations, control and maintenance of aircraft and spacecraft. A full description of the journal scope can be found on the journal website [1].[...] Full article
Aerospace EISSN 2226-4310 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
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