Effects of Climate Change on the Future of Heritage Buildings: Case Study and Applied Methodology
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Method, Tools and Risk Assessment Criteria
2.1. Building Simulation Model Characterization (Phase 1)
2.1.1. Long-Term Monitoring
2.1.2. Building Simulation Model
- mi and si are the measured and simulated values, respectively;
- and represent the average of the measured and simulated data, respectively;
- n is the number of total data.
- RMSE ≤ 1 °C for temperature, ≤5% for relative humidity, and ≤1 g/kg for mixing ratio referred to accurate simulation models (LIV 1), according to [32];
2.2. Future Weather Projections (Phase 2)
- RCP 8.5 scenario is the one with the highest emissions and represents the situation we are in today. In this scenario, emissions are projected to increase continuously throughout the XXI century;
- RCP 6.0 and RCP 4.5 are two intermediate scenarios, where the emissions will be reduced through the implementation of strategies and technologies. For scenario RCP 6.0, the peak of the emissions is reached in 2080, while for RCP 4.5 in 2040;
- RCP 2.6 represents a situation where the emissions peak starts in 2020. The concentration of GHGs gradually decreases, such as the amount of heat retained by the atmosphere.
2.3. Risk Assessment (Phase 3)
2.3.1. Chemical Deterioration
- LMi is the Lifetime Multiplier at instant i [-];
- Ea is the activation energy [J/mol];
- R is the universal gas constant [8.314 J/molK];
- Ti is the air temperature at instant i [°C];
- RHi is the relative humidity at the instant i [%].
- eLM indicates the equivalent Lifetime Multiplier [-];
- n is the number of total data [-].
2.3.2. Biological Deterioration
- Category 1: RH > 70% and T between 15 and 30 °C for insects such as silverfish, psocoptera, and woodworms;
- Category 2: RH > 30% and T between 15 and 30 °C for insects such as the drugstore beetle and the clothes moth.
2.3.3. Mechanical Deterioration for Wooden Objects
- RHresponse,i is the relative humidity response at time i [%];
- RH is the relative humidity of the environment [%];
- i is the current time within the data set [-];
- a is the response factor [-].
- Δt indicates the time-step interval in seconds [s];
- tresponse is the response time, after the conversion in seconds of the days indicated in Table 4 [s].
2.3.4. Mechanical Deterioration in Masonry
3. Case Study and Simulation Model
3.1. Brief Description of the Building
3.2. On-Site Indoor Climate Monitoring
3.3. Duomo di Milano Simulation Model
3.3.1. Characterization and Calibration
3.3.2. Validation
4. Effects of Climate Change on the Conservation of the Duomo di Milano Materials
4.1. Future Climate Predicted for Milan
4.2. Future Risk Assessment
4.2.1. Chemical Deterioration Risks
4.2.2. Biological Deterioration Risks
4.2.3. Mechanical Deterioration Risks for Wooden Objects
4.2.4. Mechanical Deterioration Risks in Masonry
5. Conclusions
- Regarding the risk of chemical deterioration of the protective varnish layer in paintings, it appears that the current conditions are not favourable for proper conservation. In the two future scenarios, the situation gets even worse in a quite similar way;
- The risk of biological deterioration due to mould will increase in the future due to a prolonged period with high indoor relative humidity. The projected mould growth for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are similar;
- The risk of biological deterioration caused by insects is different for Category 1 and Category 2. For the first category of insects, an increase of favourable conditions to their growth is predicted for both future scenarios. For the second category, the unfavourable conditions of the present will decrease in the future, due to excessive increase in temperatures; however, the risk associated remains high;
- The risk of mechanical damage in painted wooden panels will be higher in the future. In the two forecasted climate scenarios, there are events in which the low relative humidity reached during summer (very hot and dry) could generate an excessive shrinkage of the surface layer of the panels with possible crack formation. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, this situation is further intensified;
- With regards to wooden furniture, the deformations generated by climatic variations in the present and future do not appear risky. However, for already damaged objects the increased risk of deterioration cannot be excluded;
- The risks of deterioration in stone structures generated by the two types of salts analysed do not increase in any of the future scenarios considered.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Chemical Deterioration Risk | Biological Deterioration Risks | Mechanical Deterioration Risks | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causes of deterioration | Acceleration of chemical reactions | Mould | Insects (category 1) | Insects (category 2) | Rapid climate variations | Rapid climate variations | Salts (Halite) | Salts (Thénardite to Mirabilite) |
Material interested | Varnish of paintings | Several materials | Wood, paper, other organic materials | Clothes, other organic materials | Wooden panels | Wooden furniture | Masonry, stone sculptures | Masonry, stone sculptures |
Current condition | ||||||||
Unfavourable conditions for material conservation | Low risk | Possible risks of insect attack | Conditions of high risk of insect attack | Possible elastic deformation phenomena (compression events) | Low risk. Caution with already deteriorated objects | Low risk | Low risk | |
2090 (RCP 4.5) | ||||||||
A 22% increase in risk is expected with respect to the current condition | Increased risk compared to the current condition, possible mould-related problems | A 10% increase in risk is expected with respect to the current condition | An 8% decrease in risk is expected with respect to the current condition | Increased risk is expected, elastic strain threshold exceeded (compression and tension events) | The risk increase. Caution with already deteriorated objects | Low risk | Low risk | |
2090 (RCP 4.5) | ||||||||
A 31% increase in risk is expected with respect to the current condition | Further increase in risk, possible mould-related problems | A 7% increase in risk is expected with respect to the current condition | An 18% decrease in risk is expected with respect to the current condition | A further increase in risk is expected, exceeding the elastic deformation threshold (compression and tension events) | The risks further increase. Caution with already deteriorated objects | Low risk | Low risk | |
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Risk Level | Range |
---|---|
Low risk | eLM > 1 |
Medium risk | 0.75 < eLM ≤ 1 |
High risk | eLM ≤ 0.75 |
Substrate Category | Representative Materials |
---|---|
0 | Biological complete media |
I | Wallpapers, plasterboard, building products of easily degradable raw materials, material for permanently elastic joints |
II | Plasters, mineral building materials, some woods, insulants not belonging to group I |
III | Metals, foils, glass, tiles |
Risk Level | Range |
---|---|
0 | Mould growth ≤ 50 mm/year |
I | 50 mm/year < Mould growth ≤ 200 mm/year |
II | Mould growth > 200 mm/year |
Object | Relevant Responses | Response Time |
---|---|---|
Panel painting | Surface response just under oil paint | 4.3 days |
The full response of the entire panel | 26 days | |
Lacquer wooden box | The full response of the entire lacquer box | 40 days |
Risk Level | Range |
---|---|
Low risk | Cycle/year ≤ 60 |
Medium risk | 60 < Cycle/year ≤ 120 |
High risk | Cycle/year > 120 |
T | RH | MR | |
---|---|---|---|
RMSE [°C, %, g/kg] | 0.52 | 4.21 | 0.45 |
r2 [-] | 0.993 | 0.904 | 0.984 |
Scenario | eLM (Yellowing of Varnish) |
---|---|
Current condition | 0.72 |
2090 (RCP 4.5) | 0.56 |
2090 (RCP 8.5) | 0.50 |
Scenario | Mycelial Growth/Year |
---|---|
Current condition | 45 |
2090 (RCP 4.5) | 146 |
2090 (RCP 8.5) | 151 |
Scenario | % Favourable Hours (Category 1) | % Favourable Hours (Category 2) |
---|---|---|
Current condition | 15% | 66% |
2090 (RCP 4.5) | 25% | 58% |
2090 (RCP 8.5) | 22% | 48% |
Scenario | N° Cycles/Year (Halite) | N° Cycles/Year (Thénardite-Mirabilite) |
---|---|---|
Current condition | 19 | 26 |
2090 (RCP 4.5) | 16 | 22 |
2090 (RCP 8.5) | 18 | 23 |
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Huerto-Cardenas, H.E.; Aste, N.; Del Pero, C.; Della Torre, S.; Leonforte, F. Effects of Climate Change on the Future of Heritage Buildings: Case Study and Applied Methodology. Climate 2021, 9, 132. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080132
Huerto-Cardenas HE, Aste N, Del Pero C, Della Torre S, Leonforte F. Effects of Climate Change on the Future of Heritage Buildings: Case Study and Applied Methodology. Climate. 2021; 9(8):132. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080132
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuerto-Cardenas, Harold Enrique, Niccolò Aste, Claudio Del Pero, Stefano Della Torre, and Fabrizio Leonforte. 2021. "Effects of Climate Change on the Future of Heritage Buildings: Case Study and Applied Methodology" Climate 9, no. 8: 132. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080132