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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Joint Modeling of Severe Dust Storm Events in Arid and Hyper Arid Regions Based on Copula Theory: A Case Study in the Yazd Province, Iran

1
Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountain Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417414418, Iran
2
Department of Natural Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Jiroft 7867161167, Iran
3
Department of Civil Engineering, the City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2020, 8(5), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8050064
Received: 8 April 2020 / Revised: 29 April 2020 / Accepted: 2 May 2020 / Published: 13 May 2020
Natural disasters such as dust storms are random phenomena created by complicated mechanisms involving many parameters. In this study, we used copula theory for bivariate modeling of dust storms. Copula theory is a suitable method for multivariate modeling of natural disasters. We identified 40 severe dust storms, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization, during 1982–2017 in Yazd province, central Iran. We used parameters at two spatial vertical levels (near-surface and upper atmosphere) that included surface maximum wind speed, and geopotential height and vertical velocity at 500, 850, and 1000 hPa. We compared two bivariate models based on the pairs of maximum wind speed–geopotential height and maximum wind speed–vertical velocity. We determined the bivariate return period using Student t and Gaussian copulas, which were considered as the most suitable functions for these variables. The results obtained for maximum wind speed–geopotential height indicated that the maximum return period was consistent with the observed frequency of severe dust storms. The bivariate modeling of dust storms based on maximum wind speed and geopotential height better described the conditions of severe dust storms than modeling based on maximum wind speed and vertical velocity. The finding of this study can be useful to improve risk management and mitigate the impacts of severe dust storms. View Full-Text
Keywords: copula theory; bivariate return period; joint probability; dust storms; maximum wind speed; geopotential height copula theory; bivariate return period; joint probability; dust storms; maximum wind speed; geopotential height
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Mesbahzadeh, T.; Mirakbari, M.; Mohseni Saravi, M.; Soleimani Sardoo, F.; Krakauer, N.Y. Joint Modeling of Severe Dust Storm Events in Arid and Hyper Arid Regions Based on Copula Theory: A Case Study in the Yazd Province, Iran. Climate 2020, 8, 64.

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