Climate 2017, 5(4), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040093
The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database
James Milner 1,*
, Colin Harpham 2, Jonathon Taylor 3
, Mike Davies 3, Corinne Le Quéré 4, Andy Haines 1 and Paul Wilkinson 1,†
, Mike Davies 3, Corinne Le Quéré 4, Andy Haines 1 and Paul Wilkinson 1,†1
Department of Social & Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK
2
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
3
UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
4
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
†
On behalf of the SHUE project partners.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 31 July 2017 / Revised: 31 October 2017 / Accepted: 8 December 2017 / Published: 13 December 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate, Air Pollution, and Public Health)
Abstract
The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. Model simulations were from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Annual mean temperature increases were 0.93 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 1.10 degrees Celsius by 2100 under RCP2.6, and 1.27 and 4.15 degrees Celsius under RCP8.5, but with substantial city-to-city variation. By 2100, under RCP2.6 no city exceeds an increase in Tmean > 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 2017 baseline), while all do under RCP8.5, some with increases in Tmean close to, or even greater than, 7 degrees Celsius. The increases were greatest in cities of mid to high latitude, in humid temperate and dry climate regions, and with large seasonal variation in temperature. Cities are likely to experience large increases in hottest month mean temperatures under high GHG emissions trajectories, which will often present substantial challenges to adaptation and health protection. View Full-TextKeywords:
climate change; urban heat; temperature; sustainability; urban health
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Milner, J.; Harpham, C.; Taylor, J.; Davies, M.; Le Quéré, C.; Haines, A.; Wilkinson, P. The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database. Climate 2017, 5, 93.
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