A Statistical Analysis of Drought and Fire Weather Indicators in the Context of Climate Change: The Case of the Attica Region, Greece
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Provision
2.3. Indices
2.4. Methodology
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Correlation between SPEI6 and Fire-Related Indicators on an Annual Basis
3.2. Linear Regression Statistics SPEI6 and Fire Sub-Indices on a Monthly Basis
3.3. Evaluation of Probability Density Functions
4. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
- MedECC. Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin—Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment; MedECC: Marseille, France, 2021. [Google Scholar]
- Costa, H.; Rigo, D.; Libertà, G.; Houston Durrant, T.; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. European Wildfire Danger and Vulnerability in a Changing Climate: Towards Integrating Risk Dimensions: JRC PESETA IV Project: Task 9—Forest Fires; Publications Office: Luxembourg, 2020. [Google Scholar]
- Ruffault, J.; Curt, T.; Moron, V.; Trigo, R.M.; Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Pimont, F.; Martin-StPaul, N.; Barbero, R.; Dupuy, J.-L.; et al. Increased Likelihood of Heat-Induced Large Wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin. Sci. Rep. 2020, 10, 13790. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Steinfeld, D.; Peter, A.; Martius, O.; Brönnimann, S. Assessing the Performance of Various Fire Weather Indices for Wildfire Occurrence in Northern Switzerland. EGUsphere 2022, 2022, 1–23. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sutanto, S.J.; Vitolo, C.; Di Napoli, C.; D’Andrea, M.; Van Lanen, H.A.J. Heatwaves, Droughts, and Fires: Exploring Compound and Cascading Dry Hazards at the Pan-European Scale. Environ. Int. 2020, 134, 105276. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Dupuy, J.; Fargeon, H.; Martin-StPaul, N.; Pimont, F.; Ruffault, J.; Guijarro, M.; Hernando, C.; Madrigal, J.; Fernandes, P. Climate Change Impact on Future Wildfire Danger and Activity in Southern Europe: A Review. Ann. For. Sci. 2020, 77, 35. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Turco, M.; Rosa-Cánovas, J.J.; Bedia, J.; Jerez, S.; Montávez, J.P.; Llasat, M.C.; Provenzale, A. Exacerbated Fires in Mediterranean Europe Due to Anthropogenic Warming Projected with Non-Stationary Climate-Fire Models. Nat. Commun. 2018, 9, 3821. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Varela, V.; Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A.; Politi, N.; Karozis, S. Methodology for the Study of Near-Future Changes of Fire Weather Patterns with Emphasis on Archaeological and Protected Touristic Areas in Greece. Forests 2020, 11, 1168. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Varela, V.; Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A.; Karozis, S.; Politi, N.; Giroud, F. Projection of Forest Fire Danger Due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4284. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Littell, J.S.; Peterson, D.L.; Riley, K.L.; Liu, Y.; Luce, C.H. A Review of the Relationships between Drought and Forest Fire in the United States. Glob. Change Biol. 2016, 22, 2353–2369. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Squire, D.T.; Richardson, D.; Risbey, J.S.; Black, A.S.; Kitsios, V.; Matear, R.J.; Monselesan, D.; Moore, T.S.; Tozer, C.R. Likelihood of Unprecedented Drought and Fire Weather during Australia’s 2019 Megafires. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 2021, 4, 64. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- White, R.H.; Anderson, S.; Booth, J.F.; Braich, G.; Draeger, C.; Fei, C.; Harley, C.D.G.; Henderson, S.B.; Jakob, M.; Lau, C.-A.; et al. The Unprecedented Pacific Northwest Heatwave of June 2021. Nat. Commun. 2023, 14, 727. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Papagiannaki, K.; Giannaros, T.M.; Lykoudis, S.; Kotroni, V.; Lagouvardos, K. Weather-Related Thresholds for Wildfire Danger in a Mediterranean Region: The Case of Greece. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2020, 291, 108076. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Tenentes, V. Sensitivity and Evaluation of Current Fire Risk and Future Projections Due to Climate Change: The Case Study of Greece. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2014, 14, 143–153. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dimitrakopoulos, A.P.; Vlahou, M.; Anagnostopoulou, C.G.; Mitsopoulos, I.D. Impact of Drought on Wildland Fires in Greece: Implications of Climatic Change? Clim. Change 2011, 109, 331–347. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dimitrakopoulos, A.P.; Bemmerzouk, A.M.; Mitsopoulos, I.D. Evaluation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System in an Eastern Mediterranean Environment. Meteorol. Appl. 2011, 18, 83–93. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Koutsias, N.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Founda, D.; Xystrakis, F.; Nioti, F.; Pleniou, M.; Mallinis, G.; Arianoutsou, M. On the Relationships between Forest Fires and Weather Conditions in Greece from Long-Term National Observations (1894–2010). Int. J. Wildland Fire 2013, 22, 493–507. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ntinopoulos, N.; Spiliotopoulos, M.; Vasiliades, L.; Mylopoulos, N. Contribution to the Study of Forest Fires in Semi-Arid Regions with the Use of Canadian Fire Weather Index Application in Greece. Climate 2022, 10, 143. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zikeloglou, I.; Lekkas, E.; Lozios, S.; Stavropoulou, M. Is Early Evacuation the Best and Only Strategy to Protect and Mitigate the Effects of Forest Fires in WUI Areas? A Qualitative Research on the Residents’ Response during the 2021 Forest Fires in NE Attica, Greece. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2023, 88, 103612. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Evelpidou, N.; Tzouxanioti, M.; Gavalas, T.; Spyrou, E.; Saitis, G.; Petropoulos, A.; Karkani, A. Assessment of Fire Effects on Surface Runoff Erosion Susceptibility: The Case of the Summer 2021 Forest Fires in Greece. Land 2022, 11, 21. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Giannaros, T.M.; Dafis, S. Meteorological Conditions Conducive to the Rapid Spread of the Deadly Wildfire in Eastern Attica, Greece. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2019, 100, 2137–2145. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Efthimiou, N.; Psomiadis, E.; Panagos, P. Fire Severity and Soil Erosion Susceptibility Mapping Using Multi-Temporal Earth Observation Data: The Case of Mati Fatal Wildfire in Eastern Attica, Greece. Catena 2020, 187, 104320. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mitsopoulos, I.; Mallinis, G.; Dimitrakopoulos, A.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Eftychidis, G.; Goldammer, J.G. Vulnerability of Peri-urban and Residential Areas to Landscape Fires in Greece: Evidence by Wildland-Urban Interface Data. Data Brief. 2020, 31, 106025. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Makhaya, Z.; Odindi, J.; Mutanga, O. The Influence of Bioclimatic and Topographic Variables on Grassland Fire Occurrence within an Urbanized Landscape. Sci. Afr. 2022, 15, e01127. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Politi, N.; Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A.; Nastos, P.T.; Dalezios, N.R. High Resolution Future Projections of Drought Characteristics in Greece Based on SPI and SPEI Indices. Atmosphere 2022, 13, 1468. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Politi, N.; Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A.; Gounaris, N. Fire Weather Assessment of Future Changes in Fire Weather Conditions in the Attica Region. Environ. Sci. Proc. 2023, 26, 186. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Politi, N.; Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A.; Nastos, P.T. High Resolution Projections for Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation over Greece. Clim. Dyn. 2022, 61, 633–667. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A.; Markantonis, I.; Politi, N.; Karozis, S.; Gounaris, N. Quantifying the Occurrence of Multi-Hazards Due to Climate Change. Appl. Sci. 2022, 12, 1218. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Feidas, H. Trend Analysis of Air Temperature Time Series in Greece and Their Relationship with Circulation Using Surface and Satellite Data: Recent Trends and an Update to 2013. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2017, 129, 1383–1406. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Petrou, I.; Kyriazis, N.; Kassomenos, P. Evaluating the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Summer Urban Overheating through Weather Types in the Attica Region, Greece. Sustainability 2023, 15, 10633. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Prezerakos, N.G. Etesian Winds Outbursts over the Greek Seas and Their Linkage with Larger-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Features: Two Real Time Data Case Studies. Atmosfera 2022, 35, 89–110. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Skamarock, W.C.; Skamarock, W.C.; Klemp, J.B.; Dudhia, J.; Gill, D.O.; Barker, D.M.; Wang, W.; Powers, J.G. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Tech. Note 2008, 475, 113. [Google Scholar]
- Hazeleger, W.; Severijns, C.; Semmler, T.; Ştefǎnescu, S.; Yang, S.; Wang, X.; Wyser, K.; Dutra, E.; Baldasano, J.M.; Bintanja, R.; et al. EC-Earth: A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2010, 91, 1357–1364. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hazeleger, W.; Wang, X.; Severijns, C.; Ştefănescu, S.; Bintanja, R.; Sterl, A.; Wyser, K.; Semmler, T.; Yang, S.; van den Hurk, B.; et al. EC-Earth V2.2: Description and Validation of a New Seamless Earth System Prediction Model. Clim. Dyn. 2012, 39, 2611–2629. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- IPCC AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability—IPCC. Available online: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (accessed on 11 May 2022).
- Vicente-Serrano, S.M.; Beguería, S.; López-Moreno, J.I. A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Clim. 2010, 23, 1696–1718. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Marín, P.-G.; Julio, C.J.; Dante Arturo, R.-T.; Daniel Jose, V.-N. Drought and Spatiotemporal Variability of Forest Fires across Mexico. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 2018, 28, 25–37. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yang, S.; Zeng, A.; Tigabu, M.; Wang, G.; Zhang, Z.; Zhu, H.; Guo, F. Investigating Drought Events and Their Consequences in Wildfires: An Application in China. Fire 2023, 6, 223. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Charchousi, D.; Papadopoulou, M.P.; Papadaskalopoulou, C.; Karali, A.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Loizidou, M. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Drought Severity in Mediterranean Islands Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Available online: http://uest.ntua.gr/adapt2clima/proceedings/presentation/charchousi_SPEI.pdf (accessed on 30 July 2024).
- Arnell, N.W.; Kay, A.L.; Freeman, A.; Rudd, A.C.; Lowe, J.A. Changing Climate Risk in the UK: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis Using Policy-Relevant Indicators. Clim. Risk Manag. 2021, 31, 100265. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Van Wagner, C.E.; Pickett, T.L. Equations and FORTRAN Program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System; Canadian Forestry Service: Ottawa, ON, Canada, 1985.
- Politi, N.; Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A.; Gounaris, N.; Varela, V. Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece. Sustainability 2023, 15, 2498. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ahmed, M.H.; Kutsuzawa, K.; Hayashibe, M. Transhumeral Arm Reaching Motion Prediction through Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Synthetic Motion Cloning. Biomimetics 2023, 8, 367. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- El Garroussi, S.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Barnard, C.; Wetterhall, F. Europe Faces up to Tenfold Increase in Extreme Fires in a Warming Climate. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 2024, 7, 30. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Karali, A.; Varotsos, K.V.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Nastos, P.P.; Hatzaki, M. Seasonal Fire Danger Forecasts for Supporting Fire Prevention Management in an Eastern Mediterranean Environment: The Case Study of Attica, Greece. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2023, 23, 429–445. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Carrillo, J.; González, A.; Pérez, J.C.; Expósito, F.J.; Díaz, J.P. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in the Canary Islands. Reg. Environ. Change 2022, 22, 61. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Giorgi, F.; Lionello, P. Climate Change Projections for the Mediterranean Region. Glob. Planet Change 2008, 63, 90–104. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lionello, P.; Scarascia, L. The Relation of Climate Extremes with Global Warming in the Mediterranean Region and Its North versus South Contrast. Reg. Environ. Change 2020, 20, 31. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lionello, P.; Scarascia, L. The Relation between Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region and Global Warming. Reg. Environ. Change 2018, 18, 1481–1493. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Karozis, S.; Sfetsos, A.; Gounaris, N.; Vlachogiannis, D. An Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Air Masses Arriving in Athens, Greece. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2021, 145, 501–517. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Paschalidou, A.K.; Kassomenos, P.A. What are the Most Fire-Dangerous Atmospheric Circulations in the Eastern-Mediterranean? Analysis of the Synoptic Wildfire Climatology. Sci. Total Environ. 2016, 539, 536–545. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Dafka, S.; Toreti, A.; Zanis, P.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J. Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean Etesians and Associated Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2019, 124, 12741–12754. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Reale, M.; Cabos Narvaez, W.D.; Cavicchia, L.; Conte, D.; Coppola, E.; Flaounas, E.; Giorgi, F.; Gualdi, S.; Hochman, A.; Li, L.; et al. Future Projections of Mediterranean Cyclone Characteristics Using the Med-CORDEX Ensemble of Coupled Regional Climate System Models. Clim. Dyn. 2022, 58, 2501–2524. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Flannigan, M.D.; Wotton, B.M.; Marshall, G.A.; de Groot, W.J.; Johnston, J.; Jurko, N.; Cantin, A.S. Fuel Moisture Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation: Climate Change Implications. Clim. Change 2016, 134, 59–71. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Rovithakis, A.; Grillakis, M.G.; Seiradakis, K.D.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Karali, A.; Field, R.; Lazaridis, M.; Voulgarakis, A. Future Climate Change Impact on Wildfire Danger over the Mediterranean: The Case of Greece. Environ. Res. Lett. 2022, 17, 045022. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Richardson, D.; Black, A.S.; Monselesan, D.P.; Risbey, J.S.; Squire, D.T.; Tozer, C.R.; Canadell, J.G. Increased Extreme Fire Weather Occurrence in Southeast Australia and Related Atmospheric Drivers. Weather Clim. Extrem. 2021, 34, 100397. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Fire Danger Classes | FWI |
---|---|
Low | <11.2 |
Moderate | 11.2–21.3 |
High | 21.3–38.0 |
Very High | 38.0–50 |
Extreme | >50 |
Statistics | Description | |
---|---|---|
Drought index | SPEI6 | Monthly values of 6-month scale SPEI |
FWI components and fire-related indices | FWI mean | Monthly average of daily FWI values |
FWI95 | The monthly 95th percentile of FWI (extreme) | |
High fire danger days | Number of days with FWI > 38 per month, based on European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) classification | |
Extreme fire danger days | Number of days with FWI > 50 per month, based on European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) classification | |
ISI mean | Monthly average of daily ISI values | |
FFMC mean | Monthly average of daily FFMC values |
Range of Correlation Values | |
---|---|
−1 ≤ r ≤ −0.7 | Strong negative linear relationship |
−0.5 ≤ r ≤ −0.3 | Moderate negative linear relationship |
−0.3 ≤ r ≤ −0.1 | Weak/low negative linear relationship |
−0.1 ≤ r ≤ +0.1 | Not a linear relationship |
+0.1 ≤ r ≤ +0.3 | Weak/low positive linear relationship |
+0.3 ≤ r ≤ +0.7 | Moderate positive linear relationship |
+0.7 ≤ r ≤ +1 | Strong positive linear relationship |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Politi, N.; Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A. A Statistical Analysis of Drought and Fire Weather Indicators in the Context of Climate Change: The Case of the Attica Region, Greece. Climate 2024, 12, 135. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12090135
Politi N, Vlachogiannis D, Sfetsos A. A Statistical Analysis of Drought and Fire Weather Indicators in the Context of Climate Change: The Case of the Attica Region, Greece. Climate. 2024; 12(9):135. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12090135
Chicago/Turabian StylePoliti, Nadia, Diamando Vlachogiannis, and Athanasios Sfetsos. 2024. "A Statistical Analysis of Drought and Fire Weather Indicators in the Context of Climate Change: The Case of the Attica Region, Greece" Climate 12, no. 9: 135. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12090135
APA StylePoliti, N., Vlachogiannis, D., & Sfetsos, A. (2024). A Statistical Analysis of Drought and Fire Weather Indicators in the Context of Climate Change: The Case of the Attica Region, Greece. Climate, 12(9), 135. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12090135