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Quantification of Climate Warming and Crop Management Impacts on Cotton Phenology

Department of Agronomy, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan 60800, Pakistan
Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Vehari 61100, Pakistan
Department of Agronomy, Muhammad Nawaz Shareef Agriculture University, Multan 60800, Pakistan
US-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Agriculture and Food Security (USPCAS-AFS), University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan
Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Department of Agriculture, District Chiniot 35400, Pakistan
Department of Agronomy, Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Milan S. Stankovic
Received: 30 November 2016 / Revised: 20 January 2017 / Accepted: 25 January 2017 / Published: 10 February 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Abiotic Environmental Stress Responses of Plants)
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Understanding the impact of the warming trend on phenological stages and phases of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in central and lower Punjab, Pakistan, may assist in optimizing crop management practices to enhance production. This study determined the influence of the thermal trend on cotton phenology from 1980–2015 in 15 selected locations. The results demonstrated that observed phenological stages including sowing (S), emergence (E), anthesis (A) and physiological maturity (M) occurred earlier by, on average, 5.35, 5.08, 2.87 and 1.12 days decade−1, respectively. Phenological phases, sowing anthesis (S-A), anthesis to maturity (A-M) and sowing to maturity (S-M) were reduced by, on average, 2.45, 1.76 and 4.23 days decade−1, respectively. Observed sowing, emergence, anthesis and maturity were negatively correlated with air temperature by, on average, −2.03, −1.93, −1.09 and −0.42 days °C−1, respectively. Observed sowing-anthesis, anthesis to maturity and sowing-maturity were also negatively correlated with temperature by, on average, −0.94, −0.67 and −1.61 days °C−1, respectively. Applying the cropping system model CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model using a standard variety in all locations indicated that the model-predicted phenology accelerated more due to warming trends than field-observed phenology. However, 30.21% of the harmful influence of the thermal trend was compensated as a result of introducing new cotton cultivars with higher growing degree day (thermal time) requirements. Therefore, new cotton cultivars which have higher thermal times and are high temperature tolerant should be evolved. View Full-Text
Keywords: cotton phenology; CSM-CROPGRO-cotton model; climate warming; thermal trend cotton phenology; CSM-CROPGRO-cotton model; climate warming; thermal trend

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Ahmad, S.; Abbas, Q.; Abbas, G.; Fatima, Z.; Atique-ur-Rehman; Naz, S.; Younis, H.; Khan, R.J.; Nasim, W.; Habib ur Rehman, M.; Ahmad, A.; Rasul, G.; Khan, M.A.; Hasanuzzaman, M. Quantification of Climate Warming and Crop Management Impacts on Cotton Phenology. Plants 2017, 6, 7.

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