Breeding Climate-Resilient Soybeans for 2050 and Beyond: Leveraging Novel Technologies to Mitigate Yield Stagnation and Climate Change Impacts
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Yield Stagnation: Pressure, Pattern, and Production Risks
3. Impact of Climate Change on Soybean Yield and Productivity
3.1. Elevated CO2 Levels Affect Soybean Growth, Development, and Production in a Non-Linear Way
3.2. eCO2 Combined with High Temperatures Significantly Amplifies the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Soybean Crops
3.3. eCO2 Induced Climate Change Intensifies Biotic Stress and Subsequently Impacts Soybean
3.4. Effects of Combined Abiotic Stresses Related to Climate Change on Soybean Yield and Production
4. Novel Strategies for Soybean Breeding
4.1. Deeper Understanding of the Traits of Interest

| Gene(s) Modified (Type of Modification) | Effect on BNF/Nodulation | Impact on Yield & Related Traits |
|---|---|---|
| Autoregulation of nodulation (AON) pathway | ||
| RIC1a/2a (Rhizobia-Induced CLE 1a/2a)—(KO/CRISPR) | Moderately increased nodule number; improved N & P content; enhanced carbon/nitrogen balance. | 10–31% increase in grain yield and increased protein content in field trials [216]. |
| NARK (Nodule Autoregulation Receptor Kinase)—(KO/Mutation) | Supernodulation (excessive nodule formation). | Often results in a yield penalty or stunted shoot growth due to excessive carbon drain [217]. |
| Nitrate inhibition of nodulation | ||
| GmNIC1a/b (Nitrate-Induced CLE 1a/b)—(OE) | Inhibited nodulation in a GmNARK-dependent manner. | Not specified [218]. |
| GmNLP1, GmNLP4 (NIN-like Proteins)—(KO/CRISPR) | Unveiled a nitrate-tolerant nodulation phenotype, allowing nodulation even with high nitrate. | Not specified [219]. |
| Phosphate (Pi) homeostasis & nutrient acquisition | ||
| GmPHR1 (PHOSPHATE-STARVATION-RESPONSE 1)—(OE) | Promotes nodulation, increases nodule size, enhances N & P acquisition, boosts nitrogenase activity. | ~10.8% increase in single-plant yield under field conditions [220]. |
| GmPAP4 (Acid Phosphatase)—(Underexpression) | Significantly affected nodulation and BNF efficiency under phosphorus-deficient conditions. | Affected yield under P-deficient conditions [221]. |
| GmEXPB2 (β-expansin)—(OE) | Enhanced nodule enlargement, increased infected cell abundance, improved N2 fixation capacity. | Promoted increases in N and P content, biomass, and yield under low P stress [222]. |
| Nodule senescence | ||
| GmCYP35, GmCYP37, GmCYP39, GmCYP45 (Cysteine Proteases)—(Quadruple KO) | Delayed nodule senescence, significantly higher nitrogenase activity in older nodules. | Potential for prolonged N-fixing period (field impact not specified) [223]. |
| GmNAC039, GmNAC018 (NAC Transcription Factors)—(OE/Mutation) | Overexpression causes early senescence; mutants delay senescence. | Not specified [223]. |
| Plant hormone signaling | ||
| GmCRE1 (Cytokinin Response 1)—(KO) | Decreased nodule number and size, almost complete abrogation of BNF. | Significant yield reduction [224]. |
| GmRR11d (B-type Response Regulator)—(KO/CRISPR) | Significantly increased nodule numbers (nearly doubled in hairy roots). | Not specified in current field studies [225]. |
| Gibberellin receptor gene—(Editing) | Improves N fixation and overall plant growth processes. | Improves yield [226]. |
| GmNMH7 (MADS-box TF)—(OE) | Inhibited root and nodule development, acts as a negative regulator. | Not specified [227]. |
| Nodule organogenesis (central regulator) | ||
| GmNINa (Nodule Inception a)—(OE/Knockdown) | Central regulator; required for nodule formation. Knockdown inhibits root hair deformation and infection threads. | Not specified [228]. |
| Carbon metabolism and allocation | ||
| GmSWEET10a/b—(OE/KO), GmSWEET3c, GmSWEET38 | Regulates sugar transport to seeds/nodules. OE increases sugar availability to nodules. | OE increases single-plant yield by 11–20%; KO decreases yield by 40.2% [229]. |
| Nodule function (micronutrient cofactors) | ||
| Leghaemoglobin (Lb genes)—(OE) | Regulates internal oxygen levels to protect nitrogenase from oxidative damage. | Not specified [230]. |
| Root nodule symbiotic specificity | ||
| Rj4 (Thaumatin-Like Protein)—(Mutation) | Controls nodulation specificity; recessive mutant allows nodulation with otherwise incompatible strains. | Critical for managing specific rhizobial inoculants (not a direct yield trait) [231]. |
4.2. Understanding Soybean’s (Abiotic) Stress Physiology
4.3. Increased Understanding of Biotic Stress Tolerance and Pathogen Dynamics Under Climate-Change Scenario
4.4. Optimizing Water Use Efficiency and Sustainability in Soybean Production
4.5. Accelerating Breeding Through Phenomics
4.6. New Technologies and Tools: Lab to Field
5. The Future Soybean Breeder: A Hybrid Orchestrator of Data and Dirt
6. Conclusions and Future Recommendations
- Establishment of international pre-breeding consortia to systematically introgress wild soybean alleles into elite backgrounds.
- Development of open-access phenotyping platforms for climate stress screening.
- Creation of a global soybean innovation fund to support public-good breeding research.
- Implementation of farmer participatory networks for trait prioritization and variety testing.
- Advancement of regulatory science to enable responsible use of gene editing in public breeding programs.
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Country | Approximate Genetic Gain Rate | Resources |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 12–46 kg ha−1 yr−1 Up to 84 kg ha−1 yr−1 (specific regional studies) ~39.4 kg ha−1 yr−1 (over 1960–2021) | [13,15,16,17] |
| United States of America | 18–40 kg ha−1 yr−1 (1989–2019) ~8.7 kg ha−1 yr−1 (1923–2008) | [18,19] |
| Argentina | 20.5–46.1 kg ha−1 yr−1 (last 15 years) ~32.2 kg ha−1 yr−1 (over 1960–2021) | [15] |
| China | ~17.4 kg ha−1 yr−1 (Henan province) ~5.8–16.2 kg ha−1 yr−1 (Northeast China, 1923–2008) | [12,20] |
| India | ~22–23 kg ha−1 yr−1 (1969–2008) | [21,22] |
| Canada | ~10–11 kg ha−1 yr−1 between 1934 and 1992 Up to 30 kg ha−1 yr−1 between 1976 and 1992 Up to 26 kg ha−1 yr−1 were reported in uniform tests up to 2001 ~1% annually (Southern Ontario) | [23,24] |
| Paraguay | Consistent yield increases noted as more land is allocated to the crop | [25,26] |
| Bolivia, Russia, Ukraine, Uruguay | Specific, quantifiable genetic gain rates are not easily found in search results. Russian sources mention variety development and a positive trend in production but lack quantitative genetic gain data. | Russia [27,28] Ukraine [29,30] Bolivia [31] Uruguay [32,33] |
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Nawaz, M.A.; Chung, G.; Pamirsky, I.E.; Golokhvast, K.S. Breeding Climate-Resilient Soybeans for 2050 and Beyond: Leveraging Novel Technologies to Mitigate Yield Stagnation and Climate Change Impacts. Plants 2026, 15, 1201. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15081201
Nawaz MA, Chung G, Pamirsky IE, Golokhvast KS. Breeding Climate-Resilient Soybeans for 2050 and Beyond: Leveraging Novel Technologies to Mitigate Yield Stagnation and Climate Change Impacts. Plants. 2026; 15(8):1201. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15081201
Chicago/Turabian StyleNawaz, Muhammad Amjad, Gyuhwa Chung, Igor Eduardovich Pamirsky, and Kirill Sergeevich Golokhvast. 2026. "Breeding Climate-Resilient Soybeans for 2050 and Beyond: Leveraging Novel Technologies to Mitigate Yield Stagnation and Climate Change Impacts" Plants 15, no. 8: 1201. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15081201
APA StyleNawaz, M. A., Chung, G., Pamirsky, I. E., & Golokhvast, K. S. (2026). Breeding Climate-Resilient Soybeans for 2050 and Beyond: Leveraging Novel Technologies to Mitigate Yield Stagnation and Climate Change Impacts. Plants, 15(8), 1201. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15081201

