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Article

Dengue Epidemiology in Mexico: Temperature as a Contributing Factor to National Dengue Trends

by
Juan Manuel Bello-López
1,†,
Dulce Milagros Razo Blanco-Hernández
1,†,
Andres Emmanuel Nolasco-Rojas
1,
Emilio Mariano Durán-Manuel
1,2,
Víctor Hugo Gutiérrez-Muñoz
1,
Carol Vivian Moncayo-Coello
1,
Jesus Alberto Meléndez-Ordoñez
1,
José Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez
3,
Magnolia del Carmen Ramírez-Hernández
1,2,
Adolfo López-Ornelas
1,4,
María Concepción Tamayo-Ordóñez
5,
Yahaira de Jesús Tamayo-Ordóñez
6,
Francisco Alberto Tamayo-Ordóñez
7,
Benito Hernández-Castellanos
8,
Luis Gustavo Zárate-Sánchez
1,
Oscar Sosa-Hernández
1,
Julio César Castañeda-Ortega
8,
Claudia Camelia Calzada-Mendoza
2,
Alejandro Cárdenas-Cantero
9,10,
Clemente Cruz-Cruz
1,2,* and
Miguel Ángel Loyola-Cruz
1,*add Show full author list remove Hide full author list
1
Hospital Juárez de México, Mexico City 07760, Mexico
2
Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación, Escuela Superior de Medicina, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Mexico City 11340, Mexico
3
Escuela de Medicina y Ciencias de la Salud, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Ciudad de México 14380, Mexico
4
Hospital Nacional Homeopático, Hospitales Federales de Referencia, Mexico City 06800, Mexico
5
Laboratorio de Ingeniería Genética, Departamento de Biotecnología, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila, Saltillo 25280, Mexico
6
Centro de Biotecnología Genómica, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Reynosa 88710, Mexico
7
Facultad de Química, Universidad Autónoma del Carmen, Ciudad del Carmen 24180, Mexico
8
Facultad de Biología, Universidad Veracruzana, Circuito Gonzalo Aguirre Beltrán s/n, Zona Universitaria, Xalapa 91090, Mexico
9
Dirección General de Epidemiologia, Mexico City 01480, Mexico
10
Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara 44340, Mexico
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Diseases 2026, 14(4), 133; https://doi.org/10.3390/diseases14040133
Submission received: 9 February 2026 / Revised: 30 March 2026 / Accepted: 3 April 2026 / Published: 7 April 2026
(This article belongs to the Section Infectious Disease)
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Abstract

The increasing burden of dengue represents a growing global public health concern. Among the factors associated with rising dengue incidence, climate change, particularly increasing temperatures, has been frequently highlighted, alongside other environmental, biological, and social determinants. The emergence of dengue in previously non-endemic areas and its sustained increase in incidence have become increasingly common in recent decades. Objective: The aim of this study was to describe national dengue case trends in Mexico from 1990 to 2023 and to assess their association with temperature over the same period using a descriptive, retrospective analysis of epidemiological surveillance and temperature data. Methods: Epidemiological data on confirmed dengue cases and incidence were obtained from the Morbidity Yearbook of the General Directorate of Epidemiology (DGE) of the Mexican Ministry of Health. These data were used to construct epidemic curves and to analyze the geographic distribution of incidence using quartiles. Temperature data were derived from the national annual mean calculated from monthly reports issued by the National Water Commission (CONAGUA). Associations between temperature and dengue cases and incidence were explored over the study period. Results: Temporal analysis revealed a significant increase in both dengue cases and incidence in Mexico, with a positive association with temperature during the same period. Quartile-based geographic analysis showed that state-level classifications remained relatively stable across periods, with several states clustering within or tending toward the group considered endemic. Conclusions: The results of this study show an increase in cases and incidence of dengue over time, as well as a positive association between cases/incidence of dengue in Mexico and the increase in the national average temperature during the study period; however, due to its descriptive and retrospective design, causal inference is not possible. Dengue transmission is inherently multifactorial, and the observed trends likely reflect the combined influence of climatic conditions, historical expansion of transmission cycles, vector establishment, and unmeasured socio-epidemiological factors. The absence of entomological indicators, additional climatic variables, and spatially or seasonally disaggregated analyses limits the ability to capture localized dynamics. Overall, temperature should be interpreted as a contributing factor within a complex system rather than as the sole driver of dengue trends, underscoring the need for integrated surveillance and control strategies in both endemic and non-endemic regions.
Keywords: dengue; climatic change; vector borne disease dengue; climatic change; vector borne disease

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Bello-López, J.M.; Razo Blanco-Hernández, D.M.; Nolasco-Rojas, A.E.; Durán-Manuel, E.M.; Gutiérrez-Muñoz, V.H.; Moncayo-Coello, C.V.; Meléndez-Ordoñez, J.A.; Díaz-Quiñonez, J.A.; Ramírez-Hernández, M.d.C.; López-Ornelas, A.; et al. Dengue Epidemiology in Mexico: Temperature as a Contributing Factor to National Dengue Trends. Diseases 2026, 14, 133. https://doi.org/10.3390/diseases14040133

AMA Style

Bello-López JM, Razo Blanco-Hernández DM, Nolasco-Rojas AE, Durán-Manuel EM, Gutiérrez-Muñoz VH, Moncayo-Coello CV, Meléndez-Ordoñez JA, Díaz-Quiñonez JA, Ramírez-Hernández MdC, López-Ornelas A, et al. Dengue Epidemiology in Mexico: Temperature as a Contributing Factor to National Dengue Trends. Diseases. 2026; 14(4):133. https://doi.org/10.3390/diseases14040133

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bello-López, Juan Manuel, Dulce Milagros Razo Blanco-Hernández, Andres Emmanuel Nolasco-Rojas, Emilio Mariano Durán-Manuel, Víctor Hugo Gutiérrez-Muñoz, Carol Vivian Moncayo-Coello, Jesus Alberto Meléndez-Ordoñez, José Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez, Magnolia del Carmen Ramírez-Hernández, Adolfo López-Ornelas, and et al. 2026. "Dengue Epidemiology in Mexico: Temperature as a Contributing Factor to National Dengue Trends" Diseases 14, no. 4: 133. https://doi.org/10.3390/diseases14040133

APA Style

Bello-López, J. M., Razo Blanco-Hernández, D. M., Nolasco-Rojas, A. E., Durán-Manuel, E. M., Gutiérrez-Muñoz, V. H., Moncayo-Coello, C. V., Meléndez-Ordoñez, J. A., Díaz-Quiñonez, J. A., Ramírez-Hernández, M. d. C., López-Ornelas, A., Tamayo-Ordóñez, M. C., Tamayo-Ordóñez, Y. d. J., Tamayo-Ordóñez, F. A., Hernández-Castellanos, B., Zárate-Sánchez, L. G., Sosa-Hernández, O., Castañeda-Ortega, J. C., Calzada-Mendoza, C. C., Cárdenas-Cantero, A., ... Loyola-Cruz, M. Á. (2026). Dengue Epidemiology in Mexico: Temperature as a Contributing Factor to National Dengue Trends. Diseases, 14(4), 133. https://doi.org/10.3390/diseases14040133

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