Development of a Quantitative Assessment Algorithm for Operational Risks in Mining Engineering

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

This is an important work, development of quantitative assessment algorithm for operational risks in mining engineering. My advice and comments are listed below:
1.The figures quality needs to be further improved.
2.The format of the manuscript needs to be standardized and cannot have colors marked in submitted manuscript.
3.Compared to previous research, what is the innovation of this study?

Comments on the Quality of English Language

The English could be improved to more clearly express the research.

Author Response

Thank you very much for taking the time to review this manuscript.

 

Comments 1: The figures quality needs to be further improved.

Response 1: We've improved the figures quality, added Figure 1 and redesigned Figure 3 in a more clrear way.

 

Comment 2: The format of the manuscript needs to be standardized and cannot have colors marked in submitted manuscript/

Response 2: Sorry, we highlighted some parts after the Editor's comments, the manuscript was complete.

 

Comment 3: Compared to previous research, what is the innovation of this study.

Response 3: We've added this description in Discussion part. Here it is: "The novelty of the study lies in the development of a methodological approach that allows to conduct an economic assessment of a mining enterprise operational risks. This method integrates traditional risk assessment techniques with modern digital tools. It focuses on identifying the smallest necessary set of parameters for a simulation model to evaluate both the probability and impact value of risks. Using this model, the optimal value of the key risk factor can be determined, which helps minimize the chances of negative events occurring."

 

Taking into consideration your comments on our article, we have improved the English, modified and simplyfied the Abstract. Also, we've divided last part in two, so that now you can clearly see the Conclusion. We've extended the Materials and Methods part.

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

The paper proposes a methodology for quantitative risk assessment using a simulation model.  The focus of the study is to formulate recommendations for analysis of the operational risks sources and to select project parameters that have the greatest influence on the probability of a risk event. The methodology includes the classification of operational risks by the form of their realization; the matrix of risk decomposition by types of production tasks; the construction of mathematical model on the basis of selected risk sources. Approbation of the methodology was carried out on the example of the conveyor network operation in the underground mine. At the end of the experiment, recommendations to reduce the probability of risk occurrence were formulated. The reviewer would like to propose the following comments based on the contents of the manuscript.

1. In 2. Materials and Methods. Authors formulated the algorithm of economic-mathematical model design (aimed at optimization of project parameters) in order to reduce the probability of the most critical risks occurrence and adaptation of the enterprise to the occurrences of system risks specific to the mining industry. What is the algorithm of economic-mathematical model design?
2. In Table 1. Operational risks by form of occurrence in the production process. Source: compiled by the authors. The reviewer considers it necessary to have a reference basis. The author's own compilation is not very scientific
3. In 3.4. Model testing. The value of the transloader productivity is chosen according to a normal distribution, where the mathematical expectation is the arithmetic mean between the maximum and minimum productivity. These statistics need to be verified by comparison.
4. In Figure 4. Dependency graph of a risk situation probability on the maximum permissible capacity of the transloader. The reviewer considered that there were too few data and the fitting effect was not scientific. Why is it exponential?
5. The conclusion is a critical component of an academic paper as it encapsulates the essence of the research, underscores its importance, and paves the way for future scholarly endeavors. What is the conclusion of this article?

Author Response

Thank you very much for taking the time to review this manuscript.

 

Comment 1: In 2. Materials and Methods. Authors formulated the algorithm of economic-mathematical model design (aimed at optimization of project parameters) in order to reduce the probability of the most critical risks occurrence and adaptation of the enterprise to the occurrences of system risks specific to the mining industry. What is the algorithm of economic-mathematical model design?

Response 1: We've added more description in this part according to your comments.

 

Comment 2: In Table 1. Operational risks by form of occurrence in the production process. Source: compiled by the authors. The reviewer considers it necessary to have a reference basis. The author's own compilation is not very scientific.

Response 2: Sorry, we forgot to add references here. We've fixed it.

 

Comments 3: In 3.4. Model testing. The value of the transloader productivity is chosen according to a normal distribution, where the mathematical expectation is the arithmetic mean between the maximum and minimum productivity. These statistics need to be verified by comparison.

Response 3: In reality, this parameter is manually adjusted according to the mine environment, so we repeated the experiment with different upper bound of performance to estimate the probability here. We experimented with different distribution laws, but comparing the modeling results with real data from the mine showed that this assumption is most reasonable

 

Comments 4: Dependency graph of a risk situation probability on the maximum permissible capacity of the transloader. The reviewer considered that there were too few data and the fitting effect was not scientific. Why is it exponential?

Response 4: We've added some extra explanations in the text after graphs. Here it is: "The significance of the regression equation was tested using F- test, t-test and p-value test. The results of the test showed that the relationship between the two is exponential in nature, and the values of the coefficients are not random and were formed under the influence of the predictor factor."

 

Comments 5: The conclusion is a critical component of an academic paper as it encapsulates the essence of the research, underscores its importance, and paves the way for future scholarly endeavors. What is the conclusion of this article?

Response 5: We've fixed it and divided last part Discussion. Also, we've added some extra explanation in both new parts.

 

Reviewer 3 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

Please refer to the attached document

Comments for author File: Comments.pdf

Author Response

Thank you very much for taking the time to review this manuscript.

 

Comments 1: Introduction Identify the shortcomings of existing literature, such as the lack of dynamic risk assessment tools or specific methods in the design phase.

Response 1: We've added some extra explanations in the text in Introduction part.

 

Comment 2: Materials and Methods The parameter normal (0.51, 98.75) in Table 3 explains the rationality (why is the difference between the mean and standard deviation so large? Is it possible to cause model distortion?).

Response 2: In Table 5 - 98.75 is a mean, 0.51 is a standart deviation, which seems quite ok. We got this data from the company, they do work time tracking.

 

Comments 3: Results The screenshot in Figure 3 is not clear. Data consistency: In Table 5, "Carried weight, ton (with stops)" is higher than "Carried weight (no stops)" at some capacities (such as 16 ton/min), and the accuracy of the data needs to be verified. 

Response 3: We've re-designed Figure 3, added some extra explanations about verification of the data. But, sorry, we don't see any problems in Table 5. Carried weight (no stops) is about 14 thousand tons and carried weights (with stops) is about 6.5 thousand tons.

 

Comments 4: Discussion    Insufficient support for actual cases of "4 types of risks" (blockage, shutdown, shortage, safety violations), specific industry reports or accident data need to be cited.

Response 4: Yes, unfortunately, we forgot to add references in Table 1 during preparation of template. We've fixed it.

Reviewer 4 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

Dear Authors,

I appreciated the presented draft both for the topic and for the consequences of procedures when applied. However I strongy recommend to be more focused on details and to provide a technical overview of involved parameters and factors.

In the following my suggestion to improve the quality of the paper.

Thanks for the attention and Best Regards

 

• Title seems too much generic in the final ‘…mining engineering’: better to focus on mineral transportation systems?
• The same for lines from 69 to 80: specify immediately the technical topic of the paper, otherwise it seems to readers that argument is generic. Also keyword do not mention transportation conveying system.
• Try to mention of original features of the transportation system: type of mineral as grain size; loading mode; transferring facilities; temporary deposit underground; energy supply and suitable emergency controls. Be more concentrated on concepts from line 139 to 148!
• Risk assessment is commonly linked to safety aspect for work activities, plants or the environment. In the context of the paper it seems more oriented to ‘productivity’ or ‘adaptability’ of some machineries or components during a mineral processing stage.
• Another aspect is that related to ‘geo-mining’ features, so linked to ‘grade’, ‘volumes’ , ‘ore distribution’ , efficiency of mineral dressing.
• fig.1 should be accompanied by a schematic symbolic flow chart of mining operations detailed in the model.
• ‘operational risks’ have a distinction from mining planning and management or business : Commodity Price Risk , Business interruption, Regulatory changes, Environmental risk, Economic slowdown . They concentrate on fault of equipment, plants and environmental conditions, also those linked to rock mass and groundwater.

• Extend description in caption of fig.1 and 2..
• More emphasis on the case selected: optimize the conveyor network in a potash salt mine using a chamber and pillar system of mining. Work is carried out simultaneously in 8 faces, each of which contains a roadheader and a  self- propelled wagon.
• Fig 3, on the right is not useful to understand because there is a saturation of all the space of the graph. Better to divide ‘time series’ or to rearrange full scale.
• In table 4 and table 5: max capacity of ….. what? Extend description in the title of table.
• fig. 5: is that production per day, per week, per month ….?
• In general, a more detailed description of the mining stope would help (depth, extension, size of voids) and also an image of transported mineral should be welcome.
• ch. 4 should be Discussion and Conclusions, not only Discussion. Put in evidence briefly: boundary and limits of the application; new suggestion and achievements for both mining practice and for planning; eventual link with enhanced safety of labour and the ‘maintenance’ role in keeping satisfactory standard.

Author Response

Thank you very much for taking the time to review this manuscript.

 

Comments 1: Title seems too much generic in the final ‘…mining engineering’: better to focus on mineral transportation systems? The same for lines from 69 to 80: specify immediately the technical topic of the paper, otherwise it seems to readers that argument is generic. Also keyword do not mention transportation conveying system. Try to mention of original features of the transportation system: type of mineral as grain size; loading mode; transferring facilities; temporary deposit underground; energy supply and suitable emergency controls. Be more concentrated on concepts from line 139 to 148!

Response 1: In this article we suggest a framework (instructions) for formulation a smallest necessary set of parameters for a simulation model to evaluate both the probability and impact value of risks. Transportation system was used there only as an example. We've added conveyor system in keywords, thank you for Your advice.

 

Comments 2, 7: Risk assessment is commonly linked to safety aspect for work activities, plants or the environment. In the context of the paper it seems more oriented to ‘productivity’ or ‘adaptability’ of some machineries or components during a mineral processing stage. 
‘Operational risks’ have a distinction from mining planning and management or business : Commodity Price Risk , Business interruption, Regulatory changes, Environmental risk, Economic slowdown . They concentrate on fault of equipment, plants and environmental conditions, also those linked to rock mass and groundwater.

Response 2: We've linked together two of Your comments, because we have the same asnwer for them: in our work we regard "risk" as a negative event, which in case of occurence will lead to deviation from project aim (as we stated in "Discussion" part). Therefore, types of risks You mentioned (threats and hazards) are not in scope of this article

 

Comments 3: fig.1 should be accompanied by a schematic symbolic flow chart of mining operations detailed in the model. Extend description in caption of fig.1 and 2. More emphasis on the case selected: optimize the conveyor network in a potash salt mine using a chamber and pillar system of mining. Work is carried out simultaneously in 8 faces, each of which contains a roadheader and a  self- propelled wagon. In general, a more detailed description of the mining stope would help (depth, extension, size of voids) and also an image of transported mineral should be welcome.

Response 3: We've added extra Figure and some explanations in Materials and Methods sector. Thank You for the advices.

 

Comments 4: Fig 3, on the right is not useful to understand because there is a saturation of all the space of the graph. Better to divide ‘time series’ or to rearrange full scale.

Response 4: Yes, we've re-designed this Figure and added soma extra explanations, thanks for advice.

 

Comments 5: In table 4 and table 5: max capacity of ….. what? Extend description in the title of table. fig. 5: is that production per day, per week, per month ….?

Response 5: We've fixed both issues, thanks.

 

Comments 6: ch. 4 should be Discussion and Conclusions, not only Discussion. Put in evidence briefly: boundary and limits of the application; new suggestion and achievements for both mining practice and for planning; eventual link with enhanced safety of labour and the ‘maintenance’ role in keeping satisfactory standard.

Response 6: We've divided last part and added some extra explanations in the text.

 

 

Round 2

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

The revisions are satisfactory to this reviewer. The manuscript is recommended for publication after spell check and equation editing.

Reviewer 4 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

Dear Authors,

Thanks for additional info and changes along the provided draft.

That'ok for me.

Regards