The Economic Dimension of Cybercrime in the Digital Era: A Systems Perspective on Structural Inequalities and Regional Dynamics of Computer Fraud in Spain

Computer fraud has become a rapidly expanding form of cybercrime linked to the growth of digital infrastructures and socioeconomic development. This study adopts a socio-technical systems perspective to examine the temporal evolution, regional disparities, structural determinants, and future trends of computer fraud in Spain (2011–2022). Official data from the Spanish Ministry of the Interior were used to calculate incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants. Temporal trends were analyzed using linear regression, regional patterns using clustering analysis, and structural associations using correlation models. Projections were developed to estimate trends up to 2035. Computer fraud increased sharply from 44.7 to 707.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with the strongest growth observed in card and bank fraud. Higher rates were found in economically developed and highly digitalized regions. Fraud incidence was positively associated with broadband access, mobile connectivity, and income levels, whereas traditional technologies were negatively associated. These findings indicate that computer fraud should be understood as a system-level phenomenon driven by the interplay of digital, economic, and territorial factors. Effective prevention requires integrated strategies that combine technological, regulatory, and educational measures, adapted to regional vulnerability profiles.