Parking Choice Analysis of Automated Vehicle Users: Comparing Nested Logit and Random Forest Approaches

Parking shortages and high costs in Chinese central business districts (CBDs) remain major urban challenges. Emerging automated vehicles (AVs) are expected to diversify parking options and mitigate these problems. However, AV users’ parking preferences and their influencing factors within existing urban zoning frameworks remain unclear. This study examines Nanjing as a representative case, proposing six distinct AV parking modes. Using survey data from 4644 responses collected from 1634 potential users, we employed nested logit models and random forest algorithms to analyze parking choice behavior. Results indicate that diversified AV parking modes would significantly reduce CBD parking demand. Users with medium- to long-term needs prefer home-parking, while short-term users favor CBD proximity. Key influencing factors include parking service satisfaction, duration, congestion time, AV punctuality, and individual characteristics, with satisfaction attributes showing the greatest impact across all modes. Comparative analysis reveals that random forest algorithms provide superior predictive accuracy for parking mode importance, while nested logit models better explain causal relationships between choices and influencing factors. This study establishes a dual analytical framework combining interpretability and predictive accuracy for urban AV parking research, providing valuable insights for transportation management and future metropolitan studies.