Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
4. Discussion
Main Finding
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Intervention | Title | Baseline | Impact (%) | Number | Start | End | Target | Implementation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Increase breastfeeding at 6–8 weeks | 45.2 | 20 | NA | 2019 | 2024 | 65.2 | absolute |
2 | Reduce smoking in pregnancy | 13.9 | 6 | NA | 2019 | 2025 | 7.9 | absolute |
3 | Reduce child obesity | 16.5 | 20 | NA | 2019 | 2025 | 13.2 | proportional |
4 | Reduce fuel poverty in children | 17.4 | 20 | NA | 2019 | 2022 | 13.9 | proportional |
5 | Reduce ACE in childhood | 24 | 20 | NA | 2020 | 2030 | 19.2 | proportional |
6 | Improve recognition and treatment of hypertension | 40 | 30 | NA | 2020 | 2025 | 28 | proportional |
7 | Improve recognition and treatment of CVD risk | 50 | 30 | NA | 2020 | 2025 | 65 | proportional |
8 | Improve smoking cessation | 20 | 8 | NA | 2019 | 2024 | 28 | absolute |
9 | Increase weight management | 25 | 10 | NA | 2019 | 2024 | 27.5 | proportional |
10 | Alcohol screening | NA | Screening | 50,000 | 2019 | 2025 | NA | absolute |
11 | Alcohol treatment | NA | Treatment | 5000 | 2019 | 2030 | NA | absolute |
12 | Reduce fuel poverty for older people | 11.5 | 20 | NA | 2019 | 2024 | 9.2 | proportional |
13 | Reduce ACE at 15 years | 7.5 | 20 | NA | 2020 | 2030 | 6 | proportional |
Long-Term Condition | 2012 | No Interventions | Better Health | Difference between Better Health and No Interventions | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2037 | Percentage Difference | 2037 | Percentage Difference | |||
Asthma | 6.83% | 5.95% | −12.90% | 5.88% | −13.90% | −1.00% |
CHD | 1.92% | 1.59% | −17.23% | 1.51% | −21.48% | −4.25% |
COPD | 0.75% | 0.63% | −15.79% | 0.57% | −23.92% | −8.13% |
Diabetes | 2.76% | 3.25% | 18.02% | 3.07% | 11.35% | −6.66% |
HF | 0.02% | 0.02% | −10.74% | 0.02% | −10.96% | −0.22% |
Stroke | 0.67% | 0.59% | −12.52% | 0.49% | −27.56% | −15.04% |
Frail moderate | 1.30% | 1.53% | 17.88% | 1.55% | 19.27% | 1.39% |
Multiple | 3.89% | 3.51% | −9.61% | 3.42% | −12.01% | −2.40% |
SE MI | 0.54% | 0.46% | −14.18% | 0.44% | −18.27% | −4.09% |
Neuro | 0.18% | 0.19% | 4.82% | 0.19% | 5.17% | 0.35% |
Dementia | 0.32% | 0.34% | 8.12% | 0.34% | 7.60% | −0.52% |
LD | 0.28% | 0.26% | −7.46% | 0.26% | −7.59% | −0.13% |
Frail severe | 2.96% | 3.35% | 13.21% | 3.27% | 10.45% | −2.76% |
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George, A.; Badrinath, P.; Lacey, P.; Harwood, C.; Gray, A.; Turner, P.; Springer, D. Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice. Systems 2023, 11, 247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050247
George A, Badrinath P, Lacey P, Harwood C, Gray A, Turner P, Springer D. Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice. Systems. 2023; 11(5):247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050247
Chicago/Turabian StyleGeorge, Abraham, Padmanabhan Badrinath, Peter Lacey, Chris Harwood, Alex Gray, Paul Turner, and Davinia Springer. 2023. "Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice" Systems 11, no. 5: 247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050247
APA StyleGeorge, A., Badrinath, P., Lacey, P., Harwood, C., Gray, A., Turner, P., & Springer, D. (2023). Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice. Systems, 11(5), 247. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11050247