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Information 2018, 9(8), 204; https://doi.org/10.3390/info9080204

Forecasting Electricity Consumption Using an Improved Grey Prediction Model

1
and
1,2,*
1
School of Information Management and Engineering, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 777 Guoding Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai 200433, China
2
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Financial Information Technology, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 777 Guoding Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai 200433, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 July 2018 / Revised: 9 August 2018 / Accepted: 10 August 2018 / Published: 12 August 2018
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Abstract

Prediction of electricity consumption plays critical roles in the economy. Accurate electricity consumption forecasting is essential for policy makers to formulate electricity supply policies. However, limited data and variables generally cannot provide sufficient information to gain satisfactory prediction accuracy. To address this problem, we propose a novel improved grey forecasting model, which combines data transformation for the original data sequence and combination interpolation optimization of the background value of the GM(1,1) model, and is therefore named DCOGM(1,1). To evaluate the simulation and prediction performance of DCOGM(1,1), two case studies are carried out. In addition, the results show that DCOGM(1,1) outperforms most existing improved grey models in terms of forecasting accuracy. Finally, DCOGM(1,1) is employed to predict the total electricity consumption of Shanghai City in China from 2017 to 2021. In addition, the results suggest that DCOGM(1,1) performs well compared with the traditional GM(1,1) model and other grey modification models in this context and Shanghai’s electricity consumption will increase stably in the following five years. In summary, DCOGM(1,1) proposed in our study has competent exploration and exploitation ability, and could be utilized as an effective and promising tool for short-term planning for other forecasting issues with limited source data as well. View Full-Text
Keywords: grey forecasting model; electricity consumption; GM(1,1) model; background value; data transformation; DCOGM(1,1) grey forecasting model; electricity consumption; GM(1,1) model; background value; data transformation; DCOGM(1,1)
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Li, K.; Zhang, T. Forecasting Electricity Consumption Using an Improved Grey Prediction Model. Information 2018, 9, 204.

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