SeMiner: A Flexible Sequence Miner Method to Forecast Solar Time Series
1
Department of Computer Science, Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar) , São Carlos 13565-905, Brazil
2
Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of São Paulo (IFSP), São Carlos 13565-905, Brazil
3
National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos 12227-010, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
Current address: Federal University of São Carlos, Rodovia Washington Luis, km 235, São Carlos 13565-905, Brazil
‡
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Information 2018, 9(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/info9010008
Received: 12 December 2017 / Revised: 29 December 2017 / Accepted: 2 January 2018 / Published: 4 January 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Information Technology: New Generations (ITNG 2017))
X-rays emitted by the Sun can damage electronic devices of spaceships, satellites, positioning systems and electricity distribution grids. Thus, the forecasting of solar X-rays is needed to warn organizations and mitigate undesirable effects. Traditional mining classification methods categorize observations into labels, and we aim to extend this approach to predict future X-ray levels. Therefore, we developed the “SeMiner” method, which allows the prediction of future events. “SeMiner” processes X-rays into sequences employing a new algorithm called “Series-to-Sequence” (SS). It employs a sliding window approach configured by a specialist. Then, the sequences are submitted to a classifier to generate a model that predicts X-ray levels. An optimized version of “SS” was also developed using parallelization techniques and Graphical Processing Units, in order to speed up the entire forecasting process. The obtained results indicate that “SeMiner” is well-suited to predict solar X-rays and solar flares within the defined time range. It reached more than 90% of accuracy for a 2-day forecast, and more than 80% of True Positive (TPR) and True Negative (TNR) rates predicting X-ray levels. It also reached an accuracy of 72.7%, with a TPR of 70.9% and TNR of 79.7% when predicting solar flares. Moreover, the optimized version of “SS” proved to be 4.36 faster than its initial version.
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Keywords:
solar flare; X-rays; k-nearest neighbour classifier; sliding window; forecasting; time series; data mining; feature selection; graphical processing unit (GPU); CUDA
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MDPI and ACS Style
Díscola Junior, S.L.; Cecatto, J.R.; Merino Fernandes, M.; Xavier Ribeiro, M. SeMiner: A Flexible Sequence Miner Method to Forecast Solar Time Series. Information 2018, 9, 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/info9010008
AMA Style
Díscola Junior SL, Cecatto JR, Merino Fernandes M, Xavier Ribeiro M. SeMiner: A Flexible Sequence Miner Method to Forecast Solar Time Series. Information. 2018; 9(1):8. https://doi.org/10.3390/info9010008
Chicago/Turabian StyleDíscola Junior, Sérgio L., José R. Cecatto, Márcio Merino Fernandes, and Marcela Xavier Ribeiro. 2018. "SeMiner: A Flexible Sequence Miner Method to Forecast Solar Time Series" Information 9, no. 1: 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/info9010008
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