RW-UCFI: A Risk-Weighted Uncertainty-Conditioned Explainability Framework for Stacked Ensemble Models in B2B Financial Risk Profiling

Interpretability in corporate financial risk profiling must support not only predictive performance but also governance-oriented decision-making. This study proposes a three-class financial risk assessment workflow for B2B settings and introduces Risk-Weighted Uncertainty-Conditioned Feature Importance (RW-UCFI) as a post-explanation prioritization framework. RW-UCFI is not a new attribution method; rather, it reorganizes existing explanation outputs according to class sensitivity, predictive uncertainty, and asymmetric risk relevance. The empirical analysis uses a single cross-sectional dataset of 954 Indonesia Stock Exchange-listed firms with organizationally provided Low Risk, Medium Risk, and High Risk labels. A stacked ensemble model is used as the explanatory substrate, followed by calibration analysis, uncertainty analysis, and governance-oriented explainability aggregation. On the held-out validation set, the model achieved an accuracy of 0.7487 and a macro ROC-AUC of 0.8630. Repeated stratified validation indicated moderately stable aggregate performance, although class-level reliability remained uneven, with High Risk recall emerging as the weakest and most variable component. The original model showed the most favorable probability reliability among the evaluated variants, whereas temperature scaling and one-vs-rest isotonic regression did not improve calibration. Uncertainty analysis further showed that the most uncertain cases concentrated substantially more misclassifications and High Risk misses; the top 30% most uncertain cases captured 52.1% of all errors and 43.8% of High Risk misses. RW-UCFI produced a materially different feature-priority structure from standard global SHAP ranking, suggesting that explanation outputs may become more decision-relevant for governance-oriented review when contextualized by uncertainty and asymmetric risk conditions in the present setting.