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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Regional Scale Risk-Informed Land-Use Planning Using Probabilistic Coastline Recession Modelling and Economical Optimisation: East Coast of Sri Lanka

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Department of Water Science and Engineering, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands
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Jongejan Risk Management Consulting, Schoolstraat 4, 2611 HS Delft, The Netherlands
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Coast Conservation and Coastal Resource Management Department, 4th Floor, New Secretariat Building, Maligawatte, Colombo 01000, Sri Lanka
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Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands
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Department of Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(4), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040120
Received: 17 July 2018 / Revised: 11 October 2018 / Accepted: 12 October 2018 / Published: 15 October 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
One of the measures that has been implemented widely to adapt to the effect of climate change in coastal zones is the implementation of set-back lines. The traditional approach of determining set-back lines is likely to be conservative, and thus pose unnecessary constraints on coastal zone development and fully utilising the potential of these high-return areas. In this study, we apply a newly developed risk-informed approach to determine the coastal set-back line at regional scale in a poor data environment. This approach aims to find the economic optimum by balancing the (potential) economic gain from investing in coastal zones and the risk of coastal retreat due to sea level rise and storm erosion. This application focusses on the east coast of Sri Lanka, which is experiencing rapid economic growth on one hand and severe beach erosion on the other hand. This area of Sri Lanka is a highly data-poor environment, and the data is mostly available from global databases and very limited measurement campaigns. Probabilistic estimates of coastline retreat are obtained from the application of Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) framework. Economic data, such as the discount rate, rate of return of investment, cost of damage, etc., are collated from existing estimates/reports for the area. The main outcome of this study is a series of maps indicating the economically optimal set-back line (EOSL) for the ~200-km-long coastal region. The EOSL is established for the year 2025 to provide a stable basis for land-use planning decisions over the next two decades or so. The EOSLs thus determined range between 12 m and 175 m from the coastline. Sensitivity analyses show that strong variations in key economic parameters such as the discount rate have a disproportionately small impact on the EOSL. View Full-Text
Keywords: coastline retreat; coastal risk; economical optimisation; coastal zone management; climate change adaptation coastline retreat; coastal risk; economical optimisation; coastal zone management; climate change adaptation
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Dastgheib, A.; Jongejan, R.; Wickramanayake, M.; Ranasinghe, R. Regional Scale Risk-Informed Land-Use Planning Using Probabilistic Coastline Recession Modelling and Economical Optimisation: East Coast of Sri Lanka. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6, 120.

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