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J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 76; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030076

Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts

1
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Costal and Marine Science Center, 2885 Mission Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
2
U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, 2130 S.W. Fifth Avenue, Portland, OR 97201, USA
3
U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA
4
Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 2095 Engineering Research Facility, 842W. Taylor Street (M/C 246), Chicago, IL 60607-7023, USA
5
Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11, Petaluma, CA 94954, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 7 June 2018 / Revised: 22 June 2018 / Accepted: 26 June 2018 / Published: 2 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk)
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Abstract

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations. View Full-Text
Keywords: coastal hazards; sea-level rise; coastal storms; climate change; exposure; socio-economic vulnerability; data visualization coastal hazards; sea-level rise; coastal storms; climate change; exposure; socio-economic vulnerability; data visualization
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Erikson, L.; Barnard, P.; O’Neill, A.; Wood, N.; Jones, J.; Finzi Hart, J.; Vitousek, S.; Limber, P.; Hayden, M.; Fitzgibbon, M.; Lovering, J.; Foxgrover, A. Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6, 76.

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