Monte Carlo-Based Risk Analysis of Deep-Sea Mining Risers Under Vessel–Riser Coupling Effects

In deep-sea mining operations, rigid risers operate in a complex and uncertain ocean environment where vessel–riser interactions present significant structural challenges. This study develops a coupled dynamic modeling framework that integrates vessel motions and environmental loads to evaluate the probabilistic risk of riser failure. Using frequency-domain RAOs derived from AQWA and time-domain simulations in OrcaFlex 11.0, we analyze the riser’s effective tension, bending moment, and von Mises stress under a range of wave heights, periods, and directions, as well as varying current and wind speeds. A Monte Carlo simulation framework based on Latin hypercube sampling is used to generate 10,000 sea state scenarios. The response distributions are approximated using probability density functions to assess structural reliability, and global sensitivity is evaluated using a Sobol-based approach. Results show that the wave height and period are the primary drivers of riser dynamic response, both with sensitivity indices exceeding 0.7. Transverse wave directions exert stronger dynamic excitation, and the current speed notably affects the bending moment (sensitivity index = 0.111). The proposed methodology unifies a coupled time-domain simulation, environmental uncertainty analysis, and reliability assessment, enabling clear identification of dominant factors and distribution patterns of extreme riser responses. Additionally, the workflow offers practical guidance on key monitoring targets, alarm thresholds, and safe operation to support design and real-time decision-making.