1. Introduction
With the accelerating global climate crisis, the need to achieve deep decarbonization across energy and industrial systems has become a central concern of governments and industries. As widely acknowledged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is indispensable for achieving net-zero emission targets, especially in hard-to-abate sectors such as cement, steel, and chemicals [
1,
2,
3]. In this context, the construction of reliable carbon dioxide (CO
2) storage and transport infrastructure has emerged as a critical enabler of large-scale CCS deployment. Particularly in Europe, where emission sources are scattered across the continent while geological storage capacity is concentrated in offshore basins such as the North Sea, efficient planning of CO
2 shipping infrastructure is vital [
4].
Maritime CO
2 transport is increasingly recognized as a vital component in carbon capture and storage (CCS) due to its inherent flexibility and cost efficiency [
5]. Compared to fixed pipelines, ship-based transport offers significant advantages, particularly during the initial phases of CCS deployment and in regions with spatial and temporal variability [
6]. Maritime transport generally requires lower initial capital investment than pipelines, which demand substantial upfront costs, making ships more suitable for projects with uncertain demand evolution [
7]. Pipelines are generally more efficient for shorter distances with high CO
2 volumes [
8], with Knoope et al. [
7] specifically showing that pipelines are preferred for distances under 200 km when dealing with CO
2 volumes greater than 5 million tons/year. Conversely, for smaller volumes, such as 2.5 million tons/year, shipping becomes competitive at distances greater than 500 km. Furthermore, ships offer operational flexibility, often requiring less frequent maintenance than pipelines, which need regular inspections, especially in corrosive environments [
7]. Unlike pipelines, which may require costly structural reinforcements to withstand harsh environmental conditions, ships provide adjustable routing to adapt to operational needs [
6]. This combination of reduced capital commitment, operational scalability, adaptability to variable conditions, and suitability for long-distance transport makes maritime transport a compelling and flexible alternative to pipelines for linking industrial clusters to offshore storage hubs [
5]. However, the economic viability of ship transport largely depends on the strategic deployment of coastal storage stations, which serve as essential docking and injection points in the maritime supply chain. Inappropriate placement of these facilities may result in extended detours, under-utilized fleet capacity, increased berthing fees, and even emission penalties due to CO
2 that remains untransported [
9,
10]. Thus, the integrated planning of storage station locations, fleet deployment, and shipping schedules is of central importance for CCS operational efficiency and policy compliance.
Beyond economic and strategic considerations, maritime CO
2 transport also faces distinct thermophysical and operational constraints that significantly affect system design and deployment. CCS is pivotal for mitigating climate change by capturing CO
2 from industrial sources and storing it in geological formations like deep saline aquifers or depleted hydrocarbon fields, supporting global net-zero emission goals [
11]. Maritime transport is essential for connecting emission sources to offshore storage sites, especially for long distances (>500 km) or lower CO
2 volumes (<2.5 million tons/year), where it outperforms pipelines in cost effectiveness [
12]. However, CO
2 maritime transport requires maintaining specific pressure (0.7–1.5 MPa) and temperature (223–246 K) conditions to keep CO
2 in a liquid state, ensuring high density (≈1159 kg/m
3) and avoiding solidification or supercritical transitions that could cause operational issues like blockages [
13,
14]. These physical and engineering constraints significantly influence storage site selection, as sites often require supercritical CO
2 for injection, and ship-route allocation, which must account for vessel design and dynamic factors like weather or port congestion [
15]. The intricate interplay of these thermophysical requirements and operational considerations presents substantial challenges for the efficient and safe design of CCS networks. The necessity to meticulously manage CO
2 physical state across the supply chain, from transport to injection, while considering logistical complexities, underscores the critical need for robust optimization approaches. Therefore, developing frameworks for the strategic layout of storage sites and transport routes that explicitly account for these factors is paramount to enhance the safety, efficiency, and cost effectiveness of CCS supply chains, thereby facilitating their global deployment. This study is motivated by these challenges, proposing an optimization framework that specifically integrates CO
2 physical state requirements into strategic decision-making for site selection and route allocation.
To complement these technical and operational challenges, several real-world CCUS projects provide practical validation and experience that reinforce the necessity of integrated site selection and transport planning. Saudi Aramco’s Uthmaniyah CO
2 Europe Demonstration Project and Norway’s Northern Lights Project are two prominent examples. Since 2015, the Uthmaniyah project has captured approximately 800,000 tonnes of CO
2 annually from the Hawiyah Natural Gas Liquids plant, compressing it to 1500–1600 psi and transporting it via an 85 km pipeline to a Jurassic carbonate reservoir for injection [
16]. Advanced monitoring ensures secure storage, with about 40% of CO
2 permanently sequestered [
17]. The project’s success reflects effective infrastructure design, cross-disciplinary integration, and commitment to environmental goals [
18], offering transferable insights into offshore site planning and pipeline-based CO
2 transport. In contrast, the Northern Lights Project, operational since 2024, adopts a fully maritime approach: liquefied CO
2 is shipped 100 km from Øygarden to a North Sea saline aquifer using 7500 m
3 vessels, with a total capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per year [
19]. Monitoring via seismic and pressure sensing ensures long-term storage security [
20]. The project’s ship-based flexibility, cross-border coordination, and policy support from Norway’s Longship initiative [
21] provide a working reference for marine-based CCS logistics. Systematically identifying the factors contributing to the success of these projects reveals several dimensions that are directly relevant to the proposed optimization model. These include the importance of strategic site selection based on storage capacity and geographic efficiency, the allocation of flexible ship-based transport routes to accommodate industrial demand, and the role of operational constraints such as berthing frequency and infrastructure reliability. The Northern Lights project demonstrates the feasibility of ship-route planning under variable conditions, which aligns with the model’s capability to assign ships, optimize transport frequency, and support multi-source routing. Uthmaniyah’s focus on reservoir suitability and monitoring emphasizes the value of matching infrastructure investment with storage performance, a core aspect of the site selection sub-model. Together, these projects inform both the structural formulation and the practical applicability of the proposed approach. Their design and implementation experiences directly parallel the optimization problems explored in this study, particularly regarding routing strategies and offshore injection planning.
Nevertheless, determining optimal locations for CO
2 storage sites is challenging due to the spatial heterogeneity of emission sources, port infrastructure, and long-distance maritime routes. Existing studies focus extensively on the optimization of CO
2 transportation supply chains using pipelines and ships [
22,
23,
24]. These studies explore various aspects of supply chain design, including the integration of capture, transport, and storage processes, the selection of efficient transport modes, and the development of resilient networks to support CCS deployment. Additionally, research has investigated large-scale infrastructure network design at national or regional levels [
25], compared the economic and logistical feasibility of pipelines versus ships [
26], and conducted techno-economic analyses to assess the cost effectiveness and environmental impact of ship-based CO
2 transport [
27,
28]. Some studies have also developed generalized routing strategies for broad geographical areas [
29]. However, few studies integrate the strategic siting of coastal CO
2 storage stations with the optimization of detailed maritime transport operations, such as ship scheduling, task assignment, and route planning, to efficiently connect multiple emission sources to these sites. For instance, some frameworks optimize CCS networks by selecting storage sites but prioritize pipeline-based systems, with limited attention to maritime logistics like ship scheduling or multi-source collection [
30]. Other studies analyze ship-based CO
2 transport, addressing port infrastructure and ship design, but often neglect critical operational constraints such as the rational allocation of transportation routes based on the volume of CO
2 generated [
27,
31].
Although these studies offer important insights, they typically overlook key operational constraints that are critical in maritime CO2 transport planning. First, they often fail to model the required berthing frequency for each emission source, which is essential to ensure that annually generated CO2 can be transported without delays or accumulation. Second, most models assume full transport or no transport, whereas in real applications, a portion of CO2 may remain untransported and incur emission penalties, which must be incorporated explicitly in cost evaluation. Third, the existing routing models rarely allow a single ship to collect CO2 from multiple sources (i.e., dual-source routing), despite its operational relevance in reducing underutilization and improving routing flexibility. These operational features can lead to unrealistic or infeasible plans, highlighting a research gap that this study aims to address.
To address these gaps comprehensively, this study formulates a novel CO2 storage site location and transport assignment (CSSL-TA) problem. The CSSL-TA problem jointly optimizes the strategic construction of CO2 storage sites within coastal maritime transport systems and the operational assignment of ship routes and transport tasks across multiple emission sources. A mixed-integer programming (MIP) model is developed to support integrated decision-making, simultaneously determining which storage sites to construct, how to assign ships to feasible transport routes, and how to allocate annual CO2 volumes from each emission source under system-wide constraints. These realistic constraints include ship transport capacity limits, storage site capacity constraints, berthing frequency requirements at each emission port, annual route operating limits, and CO2 direct emission constraints. These constraints ensure that the solution is both operationally feasible and aligned with emission coverage regulations. Overall, the proposed MIP model provides a practical and implementable optimization framework for supporting long-term infrastructure planning in coastal CO2 transport networks.
In particular, the multifaceted contributions of this paper are outlined as follows:
We establish an MIP model for jointly optimizing the location of CO2 storage sites, the assignment of ships to feasible transport routes, and the annual number of round trips made by each chartered ship. The realistic operational constraints in real-world CCS operations are well incorporated in our model. This formulation enables stakeholders to minimize the total cost while supporting practical infrastructure planning for long-term maritime CO2 transport systems.
We prove the necessity of maintaining integrality for construction, ship assignment, and routing frequency decisions. We also demonstrate that the objective function is submodular with respect to all three variable types. This finding highlights the inherent diminishing returns effect in the CO2 transport system, whereby additional station construction, ship-route assignments, or round trips contribute progressively less to overall cost reduction.
Sensitivity analyses on annual available sailing time, sailing speed, and the capacities of candidate storage sites are conducted to examine their effects on total cost, facility deployment, and key performance indicators. The results reveal several important insights: a longer annual sailing time allows ships to complete more round trips and reduces the number of ships required; faster sailing speeds increase transport efficiency but may raise fuel costs and direct emissions; and larger storage capacity reduces the number of required storage sites but may lead to longer transport distances due to wider spatial distribution. These findings provide practical guidance for balancing transport efficiency and infrastructure layout under different operational assumptions.
A case study demonstrates the practical value of the proposed model, offering actionable managerial insights into storage construction, ship-route assignment, and operational planning. This study shows that (i) selecting appropriate storage site locations helps reduce transport distances and lower transportation costs; (ii) strategically chartering different types of ships and assigning them to suitable routes effectively reduces direct CO2 emissions; (iii) ensuring that ships operate the appropriate number of times on selected routes guarantees the timely transportation of CO2 from each emission source, and helps minimize total cost by balancing CO2 transport cost with direct emission penalties.
To improve the model’s applicability in industries, we further propose a two-stage planning framework that separates strategic storage site selection from transport assignment. The first stage determines site construction decisions by balancing the supply–demand relationship between storage capacities and CO2 generation volumes, alongside construction costs at candidate sites, while the second stage applies a genetic algorithm (GA) to solve the transport assignment problem. This framework offers a practical alternative to the exact MIP model and can serve as a useful decision-support tool in the scenarios where computational efficiency is critical.
The remainder of this paper is structured as follows.
Section 2 reviews the related work on CCS supply chain optimization and CO
2 transport.
Section 3 formulates the research problem as an MIP model and presents its theoretical properties.
Section 4 reports numerical results and sensitivity experiments.
Section 5 introduces the two-stage optimization framework and details the GA-based solution approach. Finally,
Section 6 concludes this paper and outlines directions for future research.
3. Problem Formulation
In this section, we first introduce the problem background and describe the challenges in CO
2 storage site location and ship-routing assignment in
Section 3.1. Following that, we formulate the problem using an MIP model in
Section 3.2. Finally,
Section 3.3 provides a detailed description of model analysis.
3.1. Problem Description
The escalating need to mitigate CO2 emissions has positioned CCS as a cornerstone technology in the global transition to a low-carbon economy. Governments and industries alike are increasingly driven by stringent environmental regulations and ambitious climate targets, spurring significant investments in CCS systems. These systems not only capture CO2 from industrial processes but also prevent its release into the atmosphere, thereby addressing both environmental and regulatory challenges. The development of CCS infrastructure entails a coordinated interplay of technological innovation, financial investment, and policy support. Such integration is critical to the creation of a robust, scalable CCS network that can operate efficiently across long-term planning horizons and manage large quantities of CO2 in a cost-effective and environmentally sustainable manner.
In maritime CCS systems, the strategic placement of coastal CO2 storage sites presents a complex optimization challenge driven by several competing factors. Constructing these sites requires significant investment. Meanwhile, ships transporting CO2 operate along predefined routes that link emission sources to selected storage sites. If storage sites are poorly positioned, ships may need to follow longer routes, leading to increased fuel consumption. These inefficiencies elevate transportation costs and may also result in higher direct CO2 emissions, which incur substantial penalty costs under emission control regulations. In light of these considerations, it is crucial to precisely determine the optimal locations of CO2 storage sites and ship assignments to minimize the total system cost in the planning horizon. This cost includes the construction cost of selected CO2 storage sites, the chartering cost of ships (incurred when a ship is chartered for CO2 transportation service), the transportation cost (including fuel cost along sailing routes and berthing cost of ships), and the penalty cost for direct CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the system must satisfy annual CO2 capture and emission constraints: the total CO2 emissions generated at each emission source in a year must be transported to a storage site in a timely manner; otherwise, some of them will be released to the atmosphere within the permitted limit.
Consider the CO2 storage site location problem in a coastal-area transportation network during a multi-year planning horizon, where the number of years in the planning horizon is denoted by . The set of candidate locations where CO2 storage sites can be constructed is denoted by (indexed by ). Hereafter, we use ‘storage site’ and ‘location’ interchangeably. The set of CO2 emission sources is denoted by (indexed by ). Ships are used to transport CO2 from the emission sources to storage sites along fixed transport routes. The set of all feasible CO2 transport routes is denoted by (indexed by ). Each route includes exactly one storage site , and either one or two emission sources from , i.e., , , with . If a route connects one emission source with a storage site, it represents a round trip between the two; if it connects two emission sources with a storage site, it represents a round trip in which the ship departs from the storage site, visits both emission sources in sequence, and returns to the storage site.
The set of ships available for charter is denoted by (indexed by ). The decision of whether to charter a ship is based on the actual transport demand. If a ship is chartered, it remains in service for the entire planning horizon, and its chartering cost is incurred as a one-time fixed expense. Once a ship is chartered, it is assigned to a single route , and this assignment remains fixed in the planning horizon. Each ship is required to berth both when receiving CO2 at an emission source and when injecting CO2 to a storage site. The berthing cost of ship on route , denoted by , depends on the number of emission sources visited along the route. Each berthing operation of ship at an emission source or a storage site incurs a fixed cost , which includes tugboat assistance, pilotage, and mooring services. If route includes two emission sources, then ; if it includes only one emission source, then . This parameter contributes to the transportation cost together with the fuel cost . For a route involving one emission source and one storage site, a full round trip consists of traveling from the emission source to the storage site and back. For a route that includes two emission sources and one storage site, a full round trip consists of sailing from the storage site to the first emission source, continuing to the second emission source, and then returning to the storage site. The maximum number of round trips that ship can make on route per year is denoted by , which depends on the ship’s sailing speed and the route’s sailing distance . Assuming a full year is available for operation and denoting one year’s available sailing time by , is calculated as the available sailing time in one year divided by the time required for one round trip on route , i.e., . This parameter is not required to be an integer, as any incomplete trip at the end of a year is assumed to be completed in the following year. To account for realistic factors that significantly impact maritime CO2 transport, such as weather conditions, route congestion, and berthing delays, it is important to recognize their influence on ship sailing speeds and available navigation time. Adverse weather, congestion, and delays can reduce sailing speeds or decrease the available navigation time and limiting the . Adjusting to reflect these operational uncertainties and constraints can effectively capture the real-world challenges faced in maritime shipping.
Each storage site has a capacity , which represents the maximum amount of CO2 that can be injected into the site per year. The construction cost of a candidate storage site , denoted by , consists of two components: a fixed cost component, incurred only if the location is eligible for construction, and a variable cost component , which scales linearly with the site’s storage capacity, i.e., . The amount of CO2 produced by each emission source is fixed per year and denoted by . To ensure timely removal of CO2 from each source, a minimum berthing frequency requirement is imposed, specifying the minimum number of ship arrivals required at source annually. For each round trip, the amount of CO2 carried from source by ship must not exceed the ship’s transport capacity . If any CO2 remains untransported by the end of the year, it is directly released into the atmosphere. The amount of CO2 that emission source is allowed to release per year is capped by , and the penalty cost of emitting a ton of CO2 into the atmosphere is denoted by .
The objective function of this study is to minimize the total system cost in the planning horizon, including the construction cost of the selected CO2 storage sites, the total chartering cost of all chartered ships, the total transportation costs consisting of both fuel and berthing expenses, and the penalty costs for CO2 that is directly emitted into the atmosphere. To this end, we need to decide which candidate storage sites to construct. This decision is represented by the binary variable , which equals 1 if the -th candidate CO2 storage site is constructed, and 0 otherwise. We also determine whether each ship is chartered and, if so, which route it is assigned to. This is represented by the binary decision variable , which equals 1 if ship is chartered and assigned to route , and 0 otherwise. The number of round trips that ship makes on route per year is described by the continuous decision variable . The amount of CO2 transported from source on route by ship per year is denoted by the continuous decision variable . The amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere by source per year is represented by the continuous decision variable .
3.2. Model Design
In this subsection, we present an MIP model based on the problem setting described above. The model captures the integrated planning decisions involved in the construction of CO
2 storage sites and the chartering and routing of ships for CO
2 transport. It focuses on strategic decisions for constructing storage sites and operational decisions concerning ship assignment, route scheduling, and annual CO
2 transportation volumes. The objective is to minimize the total system costs while adhering to practical constraints such as storage capacity limits, transport capabilities requirements, berthing frequency requirements, and emission regulations.
Table 3 summarizes the notations used in the model.
The MIP model is developed to optimize the construction of CO
2 storage sites, the assignment of ships to transport routes, and the annual routing frequency of each ship, which can be written as follows:
min | | (1) |
s.t. | | | (2) |
| | | (3) |
| | | (4) |
| | | (5) |
| | | (6) |
| | | (7) |
| | | (8) |
| | | (9) |
| | | (10) |
| | | (11) |
The objective function (1) minimizes the total cost, which consists of four components: the construction cost of selected CO2 storage sites, the total chartering cost of all chartered ships, the transportation cost in the planning horizon (including fuel and berthing costs), and the penalty cost for direct CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Constraint (2) ensures that each ship can be assigned to at most one route, reflecting the condition that not all ships must be chartered. Constraint (3) denotes that for each ship assigned to a route, the total amount of CO2 transported per year does not exceed the product of its transport capacity and the number of annual round trips. Constraint (4) requires that the total injected CO2 into each constructed storage site per year does not exceed its capacity. Constraint (5) requires that each emission source is visited by ships a sufficient number of times per year to meet its minimum berthing requirement, thereby ensuring an adequate transport frequency and enabling timely removal of the generated CO2. Constraint (6) ensures that all CO2 generated by each source is either transported or emitted. Constraint (7) imposes operational bounds on the annual number of round trips that each chartered ship can make on its assigned route, ensuring that this value does not exceed the maximum allowable trips based on ship speed and route distance. Constraints (8)–(11) are the domains of decision variables.
3.3. Model Analysis
In this section, we introduce some theoretical properties regarding the MIP model presented in
Section 3.2.
3.3.1. Linearization of Bilinear Terms Involving Ship Assignment Variables
To simplify the structure of the MIP model and reduce computational complexity, we next examine whether the bilinear term can be safely linearized. Through analytical derivation, we establish Lemma 1.
Lemma 1. The bilinear termsin the model can be replaced by linear terms.
Proof. In the MIP model, the bilinear term appears in both the objective function to calculate total cost and Constraints (3) and (5) to limit the total transported volume by the ship’s capacity and to ensure the minimum berthing requirements for each source by controlling the number of annual round trips. According to Constraint (7), , the number of round trips is bounded by the binary variable . This directly implies that when , ; and when , . In both cases, the product is is exactly equal to . Therefore, according to the feasible region defined by Constraint (7), we have: , , which completes the proof. □
This replacement eliminates unnecessary nonlinearity from both the objective and the constraints, improving computational tractability while preserving all model logic.
3.3.2. Submodular Property of the Objective Function
A set function
defined on the subsets of a finite set
is called submodular if it satisfies the diminishing returns property: for every
and every
, it holds that
[
48]. In simple terms, a submodular function is a set function that describes the relationship between a set of inputs and an output, where adding an additional input has a decreasing additional benefit (diminishing returns). This property essentially means that the marginal gain from adding an element to a smaller set is at least as great as the gain from adding the same element to a larger set. Submodular functions are particularly interesting because they help model a variety of naturally occurring phenomena, such as economies of scale, network effects, or the spread of information in social networks.
For notation convenience, we denote , , and , which are restricted in the feasible region . Then, the objective function can be presented by a function of , , and , denoted by . We then give the following lemma about . The feasible region Ω is defined by Constraints (2)–(11), which include operational and capacity constraints such as construction decisions, ship chartering and route assignments, ship round-trip limits, emission allocations, and berthing frequency requirements. The objective function represents the total cost in the planning horizon, composed of storage site construction cost, ship chartering cost, transportation cost (including fuel and berthing cost), and penalty cost for untransported CO2 emissions, where the decision variables are constrained in the feasible region Ω.
Lemma 2. The objective functionis submodular regarding variablesand.
Proof. The objective is to minimize the total cost of selecting a subset of locations
for storage site construction, a subset of ships and route assignments
, and a subset of round-trip quantities
, to cover all required service elements and satisfy the direct emission limits. The direct emission volume
is linked to the transport CO
2 volume
via Constraint (6):
,
. The set covering function is known to be submodular [
48], which suggests that our objective function
is also submodular with respect to the variables
x,
z, and
n.
In the subsequent contents, we prove this submodularity by a more rigorous step-by-step analysis.
Step 1: The binary variables indicate whether the CO2 storage site at location is constructed. Define and as two subsets of constructed CO2 storage sites and let , where each is 1. Then, for any , the marginal gain by adding another storage site to can be defined as . We note that the marginal gain is represented by since the objective function is the cost. Similarly, is the marginal gain by adding a same storage site.
Step 2: Since , any potential cost reduction in service coverage by adding to is also possible when added to , but may remain unchanged due to already covered demands with the same cost. Therefore, the marginal gain by adding another storage site to the existing subsets of sites is greater than or equal to adding it to .
Step 3: In the presence of limited injection demands, the possibility of yielding zero marginal benefit by adding a new storage site to is higher than adding it to . In other words, when most emission sources are already well served in , adding a new site will provide negligible additional benefit, thus reinforcing the diminishing return property.
Conclusively, we always have .
Similar submodular behavior holds for the variables and , as shown in the following analysis.
The binary variables indicate whether ship is chartered and assigned to route . Define and as two subsets of ship-route assignments and let , where each is 1. Then, for any , the marginal gain by adding another ship-route assignment to can be defined as . We note that the marginal gain is represented by since the objective function is the cost. Similarly, is the marginal gain by adding the same storage site. Since , any potential cost reduction in service coverage by adding to is also possible when added to , but may remain unchanged due to already covered demands with the same cost. Therefore, the marginal gain by adding another ship-route assignment to the existing subsets of sites is greater than or equal to adding it to . In the presence of limited transport demands, the possibility of yielding zero marginal benefit by adding a new assignment to is higher than adding it to . In other words, when most emission sources are already well served in , adding a new site will provide negligible additional benefit, thus reinforcing the diminishing return property. Conclusively, we always have .
Additionally, the continuous variables indicate the number of round trips that ship make on route . Define and as two feasible round-trip decisions and let . Then, the marginal gain by increasing a round trip quantity from the lower level can be defined as . Similarly, is the marginal gain by increasing a round trip from the higher level . Since , any potential cost reduction brought by increasing the number of round trips from a lower level is also possible when increasing from the higher level but may remain unchanged due to already fulfilled transportation tasks. Therefore, the marginal gain by increasing the number of round trips from to is greater than or equal to increasing it from . In the presence of limited transportable volumes, the possibility of yielding zero marginal benefit by increasing a new round trip quantity from is higher than increasing it from . In other words, when most transport volumes are already well served by a large number of round trips , adding more offers limited additional benefit, thus reinforcing the diminishing return property. Conclusively, we always have .
The above analysis verifies the diminishing return property for the decision variables , and . Therefore, the objective function is submodular regarding these variables. □
3.3.3. Model Tightening via Capacity–Demand Coupling
To further strengthen the LP relaxation of the model and reduce the solution space without excluding any feasible integer solution, we examine whether constraints involving capacity limits can be tightened based on the actual amount of CO2 allocated in the system. By exploiting the property of demand–capacity coupling, we establish Lemma 3 and Lemma 4.
Lemma 3. The right-hand side of the annual storage capacity Constraint (4) can be tightened by replacingwith, whererepresents the total amount of CO2 generated by all emission sources connected to the storage site.
Proof. Consider Constraint (4) of the model:
,
, where
indicating the amount of CO
2 transported from source
on route
by ship
per year, and
is the capacity of the
-th CO
2 storage site. We denote the set of emission sources that are connected to storage site
by
. Specifically,
. The total amount of CO
2 generated by all emission sources in
is expressed as follows:
. From Constraint (6), we know that
,
, which ensure that all CO
2 generated by each source is either transported or emitted. Therefore, for each constructed site
(
), the value
equals the sum of the CO
2 volume transported from emission sources
to all storage sites connected to these sources, plus the total CO
2 volume directly emitted from
, that is:
Since each emission source connects to at least one storage site, the following inequality holds:
Combined with (12), we have:
According to Constraint (11),
is non-negative for all
, and thus we can conclude that
. Then, we have
for
and
for
. Conclusively, we always have
,
. Therefore, we can replace
in the original Constraint (4) with
. The modified constraints become
which completes the proof. □
Lemma 4. The right-hand side of the ship transport capacity Constraint (3) can be tightened by replacingwith, whererepresents the amount of CO2 generated by all emission sources on route.
Proof. Consider Constraint (3) of the model:
,
, where
indicates the amount of CO
2 transported from source
on route
by ship
per year, and
is the transport capacity of ship
. According to Lemma 1, we know that the bilinear term
can be replaced with
. Then, the constraints can be expressed as follows:
. Let the total amount of CO
2 generated by all emission sources on route
be denoted as follows:
. From Constraint (6), we know that:
,
, which ensure that all CO
2 generated by each source is either transported or emitted. Therefore, for each route
which is assigned to ship
(
), the value
equals the sum of the CO
2 volume transported by ships from emission sources
to all storage sites connected to these sources, plus the total CO
2 volume directly emitted from
, that is,
Since each emission source is included by at least one route, and is served by at least one ship on each route, the following inequality holds:
Combined with (16), we have:
According to Constraint (11),
is non-negative for all
, and thus we can conclude that:
. Then, we have
. Therefore, we can replace
in the original Constraint (3) with
. The modified constraints become:
which completes the proof. □
Based on Lemmas 1–4, we establish the following main theorem, which summarizes the equivalence between the original MIP model and its modified formulation incorporating integrality constraints, linearization, and tightened capacity bounds, while preserving the submodular property of the objective function.
Theorem 1. The original and modified MIP models are equivalent, and the submodular objective function is preserved under this modification.
Let P be the original MIP problem with objective function and feasible region Ω. Let [P] be the modified MIP problem with objective function and feasible region Ω’ (defined by (1′)–(11)). Then, [P] is equivalent to [R]. Specifically, the following applies: (i) Any feasible solution to [P] can be transformed into a feasible solution to [R] with the same objective value. (ii) Any feasible solution to [R] can be transformed into a feasible solution to [P] with the same objective value. (iii) Consequently, an optimal solution to [P] corresponds to an optimal solution to [R], and they share the same optimal objective value.
The reformulated model is presented as follows:
[R] min | | (20) |
s.t. | | | (21) |
| | | (22) |
| | | (23) |
| | | (24) |
| | | (25) |
| | | (26) |
| | | (27) |
| | | (28) |
| | | (29) |
| | | (30) |
4. Experiments
This section conducts computational experiments to verify the effectiveness of our proposed model. Specifically, we implement and solve the MIP model [R], referring to Equations (1)–(11). The experiments were conducted on a desktop computer equipped with 3.40 GHz of 13th Gen Intel Core i7 CPU and 32 GB of RAM, and the MIP model was solved by the Gurobi Optimizer 10.0.1 via the Python 3.11.5 API. In the Gurobi configuration for this model, the MIP gap parameter was explicitly set to 0.1% to specify a relative optimality gap, allowing the solver to terminate when the best feasible solution is within 1% of the optimal bound and balancing solution quality with computational efficiency. Other parameters remained at their default settings, including the utilized number of CPU cores, pre-solve, solver-integrated cuts, and heuristics, and log information. We first set initial values for parameters to obtain basic results. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the impact of these parameters.
4.1. Data Collection
The planning horizon is set to 20 years (), with annual calculations and constraints applied consistently to facilitate comprehensive long-term planning and system evaluation. A 600 by 600 (n mile) simulation environment is developed, representing a scale pertinent to establishing a maritime CO2 transport network and analogous to scenarios connecting dispersed industrial clusters to offshore storage opportunities, such as those considered in European CCS planning involving continental sources and potential North Sea storage locations. Within this environment, ten emission sources and five candidate storage sites are uniformly distributed to reflect a typical regional dispersion of major industrial facilities and potential geological storage formations. Distances between any two locations are measured using the Euclidean metric, with denoting the distance between storage site and emission source , and indicating the distance between two emission sources and . For a route including one emission source and one storage site, the route’s sailing distance is calculated as . For a route including two emission sources and one storage site, the route’s sailing distance is calculated as .
The parameters are categorized into three groups:
Parameters of storage sites. Each candidate storage site is characterized by its annual storage capacity
, ranging from 10 to 30 million tons, derived from reported capacities of operational CCS projects across diverse geological contexts, such as those assessed in European regions including Denmark and the North Sea [
49,
50]. The construction cost of storage site
is formulated as
. The parameter values are informed by global CO
2 storage initiatives. Specifically, the fixed cost
ranges from USD 200 to 600 million, reflecting the investment required for infrastructure development in regions such as the North Sea and Norwegian continental shelf, as documented in global cost assessments and Norwegian CCS projects [
50,
51]. The variable cost
varies between 15 and 40 USD/ton, aligning with reported costs for CO
2 injection into saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas fields, particularly from Norwegian demonstration projects [
51]. Specific parameter values for the five candidate storage sites are summarized in
Table 4.
Parameters of emission sources. Each emission source has an annual CO
2 emission volume
, ranging from 2.0 to 5.0 million tons, consistent with reported ranges for major industrial emitters such as coal-fired power plants, cement production facilities, and steel manufacturing units in heavy industrial regions globally, including Europe, the U.S., and China [
52,
53,
54]. The minimum annual berthing requirement
is positively correlated with each source’s emission volume. The specific values are detailed in
Table 5.
All CO
2 generated by each source is either transported or emitted. The penalty cost for direct atmospheric CO
2 emissions
is set as 110 USD/ton, based on the European Union emission regulation guidelines [
55], using a conversion rate of EUR 1 = USD 1.1. This standard applies uniformly across all EU ETS-covered installations, including coastal factories and power plants, as confirmed by the European Commission and national implementing agencies [
56,
57]. Each source is subject to an upper annual direct emission limit that cannot exceed 5% of its annual CO
2 emission amount, i.e.,
. This specific threshold, limiting direct emissions from each CO
2 source to 5% of its total annual CO
2 generation, is established to reflect stringent environmental performance expectations and aligns with ambitious objectives, such as those indicated by the International Maritime Organization’s 2023 GHG Strategy aiming for the adoption of near-zero emission technologies. Furthermore, such high capture rates are supported by lifecycle assessments which emphasize the need for substantial emission reductions to ensure the overall environmental integrity and climate benefit of CCS operations [
58,
59,
60].
Parameters of ships. A fleet of 40 ships is considered, consisting of 10 small ships, 20 medium ships, and 10 large ships. Based on [
61], small ships have transport capacities ranging from 2000 to 5000 tons and incur a total chartering cost of USD 20 million over the 20-year planning horizon. Medium ships carry 8000 to 12,000 tons with a 20-year chartering cost of USD 60 million. Large ships transport 18,000 to 25,000 tons and require a total chartering cost of USD 120 million for the same period. Each berthing operation, whether at a storage site or an emission source, incurs a cost of USD 0.05 million for small ships, USD 0.1 million for medium ships, and USD 0.2 million for large ships, in line with 2025 typical port charges for vessels of varying sizes, adjusted for the specialized requirements of CO
2 transport, and supported by BEIS port fee estimates [
62]. All ships use very-low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO). Referring to [
63], the hourly consumption (kg/h) of ship
sailing at speed
is expressed as follows:
where
is the class-specific speed exponent, which is 3.5 for small ships, 4.0 for medium ships, and 4.5 for large ships.
and
are coefficients determined by the tonnage of ship
. The parameters for ship classes are presented in
Table 6, with
and
derived from the median of the value ranges provided in [
63]. All ships are assumed to operate at a standardized sailing speed of
knots. Each year provides
h effective operational hours after accounting for downtime and maintenance, allowing for a realistic estimation of the maximum number of annual round trips as
. The fuel cost for ship
completing one full trip on route
is calculated as
, where
is the unit fuel price, set as 0.587 USD/kg based on global bunker prices [
64].
After establishing the parameter settings, we used these values to derive the basic results, and then we conducted sensitivity analysis to examine the impacts of these parameters.
4.2. Result Interpretation
This section presents the detailed basic results derived from the proposed MIP model, covering storage site construction strategy, capacity utilization of each constructed sites, ship chartering and route assignment strategy, CO2 transport and emission outcomes, transport operations, and a comprehensive cost analysis.
4.2.1. Storage Site Construction Strategy and Capacity Utilization
In this section, we present the results of the MIP model solved by Gurobi. The results related to the construction strategy are presented in
Table 7.
Table 7 summarizes the selected storage sites for construction and their capacity utilization. Among the five candidate sites,
and
are selected for construction. Site
, with an annual capacity of 10 million tons, receives 8.9 million tons of CO
2 annually, yielding an 89.0% utilization rate. Site
demonstrates even higher efficiency, with an annual intake of 24.7 million tons against a capacity of 25 million tons, achieving a utilization rate of 98.8%. The average utilization rate of the two storage stations is 93.9%, indicating that the constructed sites efficiently match transportation demands.
4.2.2. Ship Route Assignment and Transport Operations
Based on the optimal layout of CO2 storage sites derived from the MIP model, an analysis is conducted on the ship chartering, routing assignment, and how frequently each chartered ship completes round trips along its designated route per year.
Table 8 presents detailed results regarding ship chartering and route assignments. A total of 12 ships were selected for chartering from the available fleet, consisting of three small-class, seven medium-class, and two large-class ships. Each ship is assigned to a fixed route, connecting one or two emission sources to a designated storage site. Smaller ships are associated with higher values of
, indicating more frequent annual operations. This is consistent with their lower transport capacity, which necessitates a greater number of trips to complete the required CO
2 transport. In contrast, larger ships are assigned lower values of
, as their greater capacity allows them to meet transport demand with fewer trips. Additionally, the large ship
is assigned to a route that connects two emission sources. Its high capacity enables it to carry CO
2 from two sources in a single round trip, making it particularly suitable for joint service. This strategy enhances ship utilization and reduces the need for additional ships, further contributing to cost reduction.
4.2.3. CO2 Transport and Emission Analysis
Based on the optimized assignment of ships and transport plan,
Table 9 presents the detailed allocation of transported CO
2 volumes and direct emissions for each emission source. Specifically, for each emission source, the table lists the amount of CO
2 transported annually by each assigned ship.
As shown in
Table 9, 33.5914 million tons of CO
2 are transported annually, with only 0.0086 million tons emitted directly, corresponding to an average emission rate of less than 0.03%. Notably, all CO
2 in emission sources
and
are transported without any direct emissions. The extremely low level of direct emissions can be attributed to the relatively high penalty cost, which guides the system toward sustainable emission-reducing decisions.
4.2.4. Cost Components Analysis
Based on the results derived from the MIP model,
Table 10 presents a comprehensive breakdown of the total system cost in the planning horizon.
The total cost amounts to USD 17,830 million, comprising expenditures related to storage site construction, ship chartering, fuel consumption, berthing operations, and penalties for direct CO2 emissions. Among these components, the berthing cost accounts for the largest proportion of the total, reaching USD 14,354 million (80.5%). This high cost is primarily driven by the large number of berthing operations required. The construction cost totals USD 1600 million (9.0%), representing the capital investment needed to ensure adequate capacity of selected storage sites. The fuel cost is USD 1137 million (6.4%), incurred during sailing operations across the network. The chartering cost amounts to USD 720 million (4.0%), corresponding to the long-term lease of twelve ships assigned according to transport demand. The penalty cost for direct CO2 emissions is only USD 19 million (0.1%), which reflects the model’s strong preference for transporting nearly all CO2, driven by the relatively high penalty imposed on untransported emissions.
4.3. Sensitivity Analysis
In this section, we further analyze the sensitivity of our MIP model to the changes in input parameters, including the annual available sailing time, the sailing speed of all ships, and the capacities of the candidate storage sites.
The parameters of the experiments are set as shown in
Table 11. Generally, we conduct 30 experiments with an experiment ID (EID) indexed from 0 to 29. Each of the experiments is included in the corresponding group with a group ID (GID). G0, G1, and G2 are the groups of experiments that aim to illustrate the performance of the MIP model in solving instances with different annual available sailing time (
), the sailing speed of ships (
), and the ratio of the actual capacity of each storage station to its original capacity, respectively. The ratio is denoted as
, where the original capacity is
, the actual capacity is
, and
. In the “
(h)”, “
(knots)”, and “
” columns,
represents a list of numbers generated from
to
with a step size of
.
4.3.1. Different Annual Available Sailing Time
To investigate the impact of varying the annual available sailing time on the model’s effectiveness, we design instances by altering the annual available sailing time from 3000 h to 8500 h while keeping the sailing speed ( 20) and the capacity ratio () unchanged.
Figure 1 shows the optimal results of the MIP model. The
x-axis represents the EID, where instances are arranged in increasing order of the annual available sailing time. The
y-axis corresponds to the values of indicators, including the objective of an optimal solution (Obj), the number of storage sites constructed (SSN) and the construction cost (SSC) in the planning horizon, the average utilization rate (AUR) of all storage sites, the number of ships chartered (SCN) and the chartering cost (SCC), the amount of CO
2 emitted directly to the atmosphere (CED) in the planning horizon, and the total transportation cost (TTC) in the planning horizon and the average annual number of round trips (TRN) of all ships.
Table 12 lists the explanation, calculation, and practical implication of each indicator.
Figure 1a indicates that extending the annual available sailing time from 3000 to 8500 h leads to a steady decline in Obj, before stabilizing around 8000 h. This trend is primarily driven by reductions in SSC and SCC. This observed decrease in Obj with increased sailing time reflects real-world logistics, where greater operational availability of assets typically enhances system efficiency and reduces overall costs. The model’s ability to capture this fundamental relationship supports its practical applicability. A longer sailing time allows each ship to complete more round trips per year, thereby reducing the number of ships needed to meet the transport demand. Therefore, as the annual available sailing time increases, SCN and SCC are reduced, as shown in
Figure 1d. This reduction in SCN and SCC is a consequence of improved fleet utilization, a primary objective in capital-intensive transport operations, thereby aligning the model with practical fleet management goals.
As shown in
Figure 1b, SSN remains constant at two across all instances due to fixed CO
2 generation volumes and unchanged site capacities. However, SSC shows notable fluctuations, suggesting that although the number of constructed sites remains unchanged, the specific site selection varies. This variation suggests that a longer annual available sailing time enables the model to reconfigure the spatial allocation of selected sites to better align with optimal-cost transport flows. This dynamic site selection, despite a constant number of sites, demonstrates the model’s robustness and sophistication in adapting infrastructure choices to optimize the entire system as operational conditions change, rather than rigidly adhering to a single site configuration. Such adaptability is crucial for real-world strategic planning where operational parameters can vary.
Figure 1c shows that AUR does not exhibit a monotonic trend with respect to sailing time but instead shows distinct fluctuations across different EIDs. It remains around 61% under shorter sailing times (EID 0–5), rises sharply to over 80% at EID 6, drops back at EID 7, and subsequently rises to a peak from EID 9 onward. This pattern suggests that the variation in AUR is not directly driven by sailing time but is primarily influenced by the capacities of the selected storage sites. The model’s ability to reflect how AUR is more closely tied to the specific characteristics of the chosen storage sites, rather than solely with sailing time, which indicates its proficiency in handling complex interactions among different system components, contributing to robust decision support.
Figure 1e illustrates that CED exhibits an overall increasing trend as sailing time increases, which is closely related to the reduction in SCN. After assigning the majority of CO
2 to ships, a small amount of residual CO
2 may remain at certain sources. Whether these residual volumes are transported depends on a cost comparison: only if the transportation cost for the remaining portion is lower than the corresponding emission penalty will the model choose to transport it. Otherwise, direct emission becomes the cost-minimizing option. As the sailing time increases, each ship can complete more round trips, allowing the model to reduce SCN significantly. Although this improves transport efficiency and reduces SCC, having fewer chartered ships makes it more challenging to allocate ships to specific routes, thereby making it harder for the model to find a ship to transport the remaining residual CO
2 on a route at a cost lower than the direct emission, especially for routes with long distances that incur high fuel costs, or that include two emission sources, leading to high berthing costs. As a result, the model tends to opt for direct emissions more, contributing to the overall rising trend in CED, despite some fluctuations due to changing storage site configurations and chartered ships. This observed increase in CED with reduced SCN highlights a critical real-world trade-off where optimizing for lower fleet and chartering costs can lead to increased direct emissions if transporting small, difficult-to-reach CO
2 volumes becomes economically unviable compared to incurring an emission penalty. The model’s capability to explicitly capture and make decisions based on this economic trade-off between transport cost and emission penalty is a strong indicator of its real-world applicability and its robustness in finding a truly minimal-cost solution considering all factors.
Figure 1f shows that TRN increases steadily with sailing time. Given that the average route length across the system does not change substantially, an extended sailing time naturally allows each ship to complete more round trips within a year. As a result, the system-level TRN rises accordingly. In contrast, TTC remains relatively stable, exhibiting only minor fluctuations. This indicates that despite the increase in TRN, the total number of transport operations and the cumulative sailing distance do not grow significantly. Since TTC is jointly influenced by SCN and TRN, the observed stability reflects a compensatory relationship: as the available sailing time increases, SCN decreases while TRN increases. The opposing movement of these two factors offsets each other, leading to limited variation in overall transportation costs. The model’s demonstration of stable TTC, despite significant changes in SCN and TRN, showcases its ability to correctly balance interconnected cost factors. This realistic interplay, where increased efficiency per asset (higher TRN) allows for fewer assets (lower SCN) while maintaining overall transport activity levels, is a testament to the model’s robust cost accounting and its practical relevance for comprehensive system evaluation.
Overall, extending the annual available sailing time reduces both SCC and SSC, thereby lowering Obj. However, reduced SCN results in increased CED due to difficulty in assigning ships on routes with low transportation costs for residual CO2 volumes. The results highlight that the model minimizes Obj by jointly optimizing SSC, SCC, TTC and CED.
Table 13 shows the optimal results of the model under varying annual available sailing time, ranging from 3000 to 8500 h. As
increases, Obj decreases steadily before stabilizing, indicating that a longer sailing time improves overall cost efficiency by enabling each ship to complete more round trips. Most performance indicators change with increasing sailing time. In contrast, SSN remains constant at two across all instances. This suggests that the initial two storage sites are sufficient to meet the transport demand across all levels of annual available sailing time. Attempting to build a third site would result in diminishing returns, where the additional savings in transport and emission costs would no longer offset the increased construction cost. This phenomenon aligns with Lemma 3, which states that the objective function is submodular with respect to the number of constructed storage sites. The submodular property implies that the marginal benefit of adding a storage site decreases as more sites are introduced. In this case, the first two sites contribute significantly to reducing the transportation cost, but beyond a certain point, additional sites would not provide more benefits.
4.3.2. Different Sailing Speed
To investigate the impact of varying the sailing speed of all ships on the model’s effectiveness, we design instances by altering the sailing speed from 10 knots to 30 knots while keeping the annual available sailing time (
) and the capacity ratio (
) unchanged.
Figure 2 shows the optimal results of the MIP model.
As shown in
Figure 2a, Obj exhibits a U-shaped pattern as the sailing speed increases. At low speeds, more ships are needed to meet the transport demand, leading to high SCN and SCC. As speed increases, each ship completes more round trips, reducing SCN and SCC, as shown in
Figure 2d. However, beyond a threshold, these values stabilize due to the routing constraint that limits each ship to serving at most two emission sources. This U-shaped Obj curve is characteristic of real-world speed optimization problems across various transport modes. The model demonstrates this practical reality where initial speed increases yield efficiency gains (reduced SCN/SCC), but excessive speed leads to disproportionately higher operational costs (primarily fuel), rendering the system less economical. Capturing this established trade-off is crucial for the model’s credibility and applicability in determining optimal operational strategies.
According to
Figure 2b, SSN remains unchanged across all instances. SSC also stays nearly constant, except for a drop at EID 17, which reflects a change in the selected storage site configuration. This change in configuration concurrently affects AUR, which is depicted clearly in
Figure 2c, since each storage site differs in capacity.
Furthermore,
Figure 2e illustrates a steady increase in CED with rising sailing speeds. As SCN decreases, routing flexibility becomes more limited. With fewer ships available, it becomes more difficult for the model to find a route for transporting the remaining CO
2 at a cost lower than the direct emission penalty. In addition, higher sailing speeds lead to increased fuel costs on the same routes, making it even harder to economically allocate these remaining residual volumes. As a result, the model opts for direct emissions more frequently, leading to an overall rise in CED. The model’s nuanced handling of CED under varying speeds, attributing its increase to both reduced SCN (limiting routing options) and higher fuel costs per trip (making transport of residual CO
2 more expensive), demonstrates a robust understanding of the interconnected factors influencing emission decisions. This ability to weigh multiple cost drivers is vital for practical environmental and economic assessments.
Figure 2f shows that TRN increases with sailing speed since each trip takes less time, allowing ships to complete more round trips within the same annual available sailing time. However, when the sailing speed exceeds a certain threshold, SCN remains constant, and TRN also stabilizes. TTC does not follow a strictly increasing pattern: it decreases slightly at EID 12–16 due to changes in ship chartering, as ships with lower fuel and berthing costs are preferred. At EID 17–22, however, according to Equation (20), the high exponent values (3.5, 4.0, and 4.5 for the different ship classes in this study) cause disproportionately large increases in fuel consumption, resulting in a clear upward trend in TTC. The model’s sensitivity to the exponential relationship between speed and fuel consumption contributes to its real-world applicability as fuel costs are a dominant factor in maritime operations. The clear upward trend in TTC at higher speeds, directly linked to this exponential fuel use, realistically reflects the severe economic penalties of excessive speed, thereby validating the model’s cost calculations and its ability to identify a practically optimal speed range.
Overall, increasing sailing speed reduces SCN and SCC by allowing each ship to complete more round trips within a year, which helps lower Obj. However, as speed continues to rise, fuel consumption rises significantly, causing TTC to increase and ultimately driving Obj back up. In addition, the reduction in SCN leads to higher CED due to limited routing flexibility. The results highlight that the model minimizes Obj by jointly optimizing SSC, SCC, TTC and CED under varying sailing speeds.
Table 14 presents the optimal results under different sailing speeds from 10 to 30 knots. Obj first decreases and then increases as speed rises, with accompanying changes in SCN, SCC, CED, TRN, and TTC. A shift in SSC and AUR reflects changes in storage site selection. SSN remains constant at two across all instances, which suggests that constructing two storage sites is sufficient to meet the transport demand and achieve significant total cost savings.
4.3.3. Different Capacity Ratio of Storage Sites
To investigate the impact of varying the capacity ratio of all storage sites on the model’s effectiveness, we design instances by altering the capacity ratio from 0.4 to 1.6 while keeping the annual available sailing time (
) and the sailing speed (
20) unchanged.
Figure 3 shows the optimal results of the MIP model.
As shown in
Figure 3a, Obj exhibits an overall decreasing trend as the capacity ratio increases. This is primarily due to the reduction in SSC. With a larger capacity ratio, fewer sites are needed to satisfy the CO
2 storage requirement. As a result, both SSN and SSC decrease as the capacity increases, and eventually only one storage site is selected, as reflected in
Figure 3b. However, since higher-capacity sites are more expensive to construct, there are less pronounced decreases or even slight increases in SSC in some cases. The model’s strategic response of reducing SSN as individual site capacities increase is a logical adaptation to changing infrastructure parameters. This ability to make high-level decisions on the scale and number of facilities based on their individual characteristics demonstrates its utility for long-term investment planning in real-world CCS projects. Furthermore, the nuanced behavior where SSC might not always decrease monotonically (if larger sites have a disproportionately higher unit construction cost) indicates the model balances economies of scale against potential cost premiums for larger infrastructure, a common real-world consideration.
Figure 3c shows that AUR fluctuates considerably across EIDs, reflecting differences in the number, location, and capacity of selected storage sites. These factors significantly influence the level of storage utilization under each scenario.
As shown in
Figure 3d,f, SCN, SCC, TRN, and TTC remain relatively stable. Given that the sailing time, sailing speed, and annual CO
2 generation are fixed, transport operations do not vary significantly. The slight fluctuations in TTC are mainly driven by changes in routing distance under different storage site configurations. The observed stability in transport-related costs (SCN, SCC, TRN, TTC) when only site capacity is varied (while operational parameters like sailing time and speed are held constant) effectively demonstrates the model’s capability to isolate and analyze the impact of specific infrastructure decisions. This feature significantly enhances the capability for comprehensive scenario analysis in practical planning, enabling decision-makers to systematically evaluate the individual impacts of infrastructure versus operational changes.
Figure 3e highlights noticeable variations in CED, primarily due to differences in storage site construction strategies and routing assignments. Although ship chartering decisions vary only slightly, they still influence the routing flexibility and transport capacity, thereby affecting CED. The model’s indication that CED varies based on storage site strategies, even with stable overall transport operations, emphasizes the interconnectedness of infrastructure choices and their downstream environmental consequences via routing adjustments. This highlights the model’s comprehensive view, which is crucial for integrated system planning.
Overall, when varying the capacity ratio, the variation in Obj is mainly driven by changes in SSC. Other cost components remain relatively stable, and CED variation has a limited impact on total cost. These results demonstrate the model’s ability to balance construction, chartering, transport, and emission costs to achieve the minimum system cost.
Table 15 shows the numerical results under varying capacity ratios. Obj gradually decreases as the capacity increases, primarily due to the reduction in SSC, as SSN drops from four to one. AUR varies across EIDs, consistent with differences in the number and location of selected sites. Other indicators, including SCN, SCC, TRN, and TTC, remain relatively stable due to fixed sailing time and speed. CED exhibits relatively noticeable variation, reflecting the influence of storage site and routing strategies, although its absolute values remain small across all cases.
To sum up, the numerical experiments, encompassing variations in annual available sailing time, sailing speed, and storage site capacity ratio (as detailed in
Table 13,
Table 14 and
Table 15), demonstrate that the model not only effectively responds to changes in key parameters by adjusting storage site construction, ship chartering, and route assignment strategies, but also does so in a manner that reflects real-world operational logic and economic trade-offs. The results reveal how different operational and infrastructure configurations influence system-wide outcomes, particularly the Obj and its major components—SSC, SCC, and TTC. Furthermore, these analyses highlight the model’s robustness in navigating complex interactions, such as balancing fleet efficiency against emission targets, or optimizing sailing speed against escalating fuel costs. The model’s ability to identify these critical thresholds and trade-offs, leading to holistic, minimal-cost solutions that consider strategic infrastructure investments, operational efficiencies, and environmental implications simultaneously, supports its practical applicability as a decision-support tool for designing and managing sustainable maritime CO
2 transport systems.
The computational efficiency of the proposed MIP model was assessed by recording the CPU time required to solve each scenario in the sensitivity analyses. As summarized in
Table 13,
Table 14 and
Table 15, the average solution times across the three sets of sensitivity analyses were 71.4 s, 58.9 s, and 39.5 s, respectively. These findings suggest that the model is computationally tractable and can be effectively solved within reasonable time, thereby confirming its practical computational efficiency.
6. Conclusions
Maritime CO2 transport plays an important role in supporting CCS systems by connecting emission sources with suitable CO2 storage sites. However, the transport process faces several planning and operational challenges, particularly when long sailing distances and strict emission constraints are considered simultaneously. The locations of CO2 storage sites significantly affect total tactical costs, as improper site selection may lead to increased sailing distances and higher transportation costs. Once storage sites are determined, further challenges arise in transport assignment, including the selection of appropriate ship types, the allocation of ship-route assignments, and the scheduling of annual sailing operations for each ship. Therefore, optimizing both the siting of CO2 storage facilities and the assignment of transport tasks is essential to reduce total tactical costs and ensure the effective operation of maritime CCS systems.
To address these challenges, we propose an MIP model for the CSSL-TA problem. We establish a series of lemmas to analyze the mathematical structure of the model. Specifically, we prove that the decision variables associated with CO2 storage site construction and ship-route assignments must be binary since fractional construction or half-chartered ships are not practical. We also prove that bilinear terms involving ship activity can be replaced by linear expressions, reducing model complexity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the objective function is submodular with respect to construction, chartering, and routing variables, which reflects the diminishing marginal benefits of adding more resources. Additionally, we tighten two key sets of capacity constraints by coupling supply and demand. Instead of using fixed capacity parameters, the tightened constraints dynamically reflect the actual CO2 generation volumes associated with each storage site and transport route. These enhancements help reduce the feasible space and accelerate convergence. These theoretical insights provide a solid foundation for enhancing solution efficiency and extending the model in future research.
In the numerical experiments, the model yields a total tactical cost of USD 17,830 million in the planning horizon. Two storage sites are selected for construction, with an average utilization rate of 93.9%. Out of a fleet of 40 available ships, 12 ships are selected for chartering, including three small-class, seven medium-class, and two large-class ships. Among all cost components, the berthing cost accounts for the largest share, reaching 80.5% of the total, while the penalty cost for direct CO2 emissions is the smallest at only 0.1%. This outcome results from the model’s preference to avoid the relatively high penalty imposed on untransported emissions. The strategy not only ensures sufficient storage capacity and effective transport coverage, but also minimizes costs by aligning storage sitting and ship assignment decisions with capacity constraints, operational needs and direct emission limits. The sensitivity analysis reveals that variations in annual available sailing time, sailing speed, and storage capacity affect the total cost, storage site deployment, chartering cost, transportation cost, and direct emission volume. A longer sailing time, higher sailing speed, and greater capacity lead to fewer ships being needed. These factors, in turn, affect storage site construction strategies, transportation costs, and the volume of direct CO2 emissions to varying degrees. In particular, higher sailing speeds cause a rapid increase in fuel cost, which significantly raises the total cost and limits the model’s ability to assign ships to routes with low transportation cost for residual CO2.
To enhance practical applicability, we further design a two-stage planning framework that separates strategic site selection and transport assignment. In the first stage, storage sites are selected based on storage capacity and construction cost. In the second stage, a GA is applied to solve the transport assignment problem given the fixed site locations. While the two-stage approach provides a computationally efficient alternative, the resulting total tactical cost is 2.4% higher than that obtained by the exact MIP model, but it reduces the computational time by 57.9%. This result demonstrates that the proposed two-stage method can serve as a reliable and efficient decision-support tool, particularly useful for real-world applications where decision-makers must balance accuracy and tractability.
The optimization framework aligns with a multi-level decision-making structure:
Strategic level: The framework supports long-term decisions on the construction and spatial deployment of CO2 storage sites. These decisions involve large-scale infrastructure planning and capital investment, and are typically made by government agencies, regional CCS authorities, or public infrastructure coordinators.
Routing and assignment level: The framework determines which transport routes should be activated, assigns specific ships to selected routes, and specifies the number of round trips for each ship. These mid-level planning tasks are usually managed by CCS system operators or logistics planners responsible for transport design and resource allocation.
Operational level: It provides detailed support for day-to-day execution, including CO2 volume allocation from emission sources, compliance with berthing frequency requirements, and control of untransported emissions. These operational tasks are implemented by maritime transport companies or CCS logistics service providers.
While the proposed optimization framework demonstrates strong potential for improving the cost effectiveness and feasibility of maritime CO
2 transport, its real-world implementation may be affected by several practical risks. These include uncertainties in CO
2 emission volumes and storage capacities, unplanned infrastructure failures at storage sites or ports, and disruptions in ship operations due to weather conditions, scheduling conflicts, or route congestion. To mitigate such risks, the framework supports proactive measures such as the use of redundant storage capacity, flexible route selection, adaptive ship assignments, and compliance-based emission control strategies. In the event of unforeseen failures, the model allows for real-time operational adjustments and the use of backup transport resources to minimize the severity of consequences. Future research should aim to more explicitly incorporate the impact of realistic factors such as weather conditions, route congestion, and berthing delays, which are crucial in maritime CO
2 transport and can significantly impact the feasibility and reliability of optimization models in real-world applications. The development of stochastic programming or robust optimization models would allow for a more direct representation of these uncertainties, leading to solutions that better ensure operational feasibility and reliability under variable conditions. In addition, the current model can be extended by incorporating real-world complexities such as uncertainty in CO
2 capture volumes, fuel prices, and system performance, which are critical to the robustness of maritime CCS planning. Recent studies have highlighted how stochastic optimization, Monte Carlo simulations, and scenario-based models can capture uncertainties in injection rates, storage efficiency, and energy market volatility, enabling more adaptive infrastructure design and avoiding stranded CO
2 scenarios [
65,
66,
67]. Another promising extension involves integrating flexible pipeline transport and marine shipping options for hybrid CO
2 routing. Research comparing techno-energetic characteristics of liquefied CO
2 shipping and pipelines has demonstrated that such configurations can improve system resilience and reduce costs in maritime contexts [
68]. Additionally, the model could incorporate policy-driven constraints such as dynamic emission limits or carbon-trading schemes. Emerging studies in maritime transport operations under emission-trading frameworks show that fluctuating carbon prices significantly influence routing, operational strategies, and investment planning [
69]. Lastly, the model can be enhanced by adopting multi-objective optimization approaches that jointly consider cost efficiency, emission reduction, and infrastructure utilization. In particular, formulations that incorporate uncertainty can support more balanced decision-making and help identify Pareto-efficient infrastructure strategies [
70]. These extensions would further enhance the model’s applicability to long-term sustainable planning of maritime CCS systems.