Navigational Risk Evaluation of One-Way Channels: Modeling and Application to the Suez Canal

Navigating ships through one-way channels introduces significant uncertainties due to their unique navigational constraints, yet a comprehensive and tailored risk evaluation system for such channels remains notably underdeveloped. Recognizing its critical role as a global maritime artery, this study selects the Suez Canal as the case study to address this gap. The study begins by analyzing the navigational characteristics of one-way channels, systematically identifying key risk factors such as channel width, traffic density, and environmental conditions. Building on this, a novel risk evaluation model is developed, integrating the entropy weight method to assign objective weights, fuzzy logic to handle uncertainty, and Evidential Reasoning (ER) to aggregate multi-criteria assessments. The Suez Canal is then utilized as a case study to demonstrate the model’s effectiveness and practical applicability. The results reveal that Channel C exhibits the highest risk utility value, consistent with its history of the most grounding incidents, including the notable “Ever Given” event during 2021–2023. These findings not only provide valuable insights for enhancing Suez Canal management strategies but also contribute to filling the existing void in risk evaluation frameworks for one-way channels, paving the way for future research into dynamic risk assessment methodologies.