The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Scenario Prediction of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Under Extreme Temperature: Evidence from Jiangsu Province

With the intensification of global climate change, frequent extreme temperature events pose increasing challenges to agricultural production. The aim of this study is to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of county-level agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP) under extreme temperature events, reveal key driving factors and crop-specific heterogeneity, and predict potential high-risk areas, which is crucial for providing scientific basis for risk management and adaptive policy formulation in globally climate-sensitive agricultural regions. This paper selects Jiangsu Province as a typical case study, uses the DEA-Malmquist model to measure agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP), systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of ATFP at the county scale, and selects the random forest and XGBoost ensemble models with optimal accuracy through model comparison for prediction, assessing the evolution trends of ATFP under different climate scenarios. The results showed that: (1) From 1993 to 2022, the average ATFP increased from 0.7460 to 1.1063 in the province, though development showed uneven distribution across counties, exhibiting a “high in the south, low in the north” gradient pattern. (2) Mechanization, agricultural film and land inputs are the core elements driving the overall ATFP increase but there are obvious crop differences: mechanization has a more prominent role in promoting the productivity of wheat and maize, while labor inputs have a greater impact on the ATFP of rice. (3) The negative impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production will be significantly amplified under high-emission scenarios, while moderate climate change may have a promotional effect on certain crops in some regions.