Potential Global Distribution of Invasive Alien Species, Anthonomus grandis Boheman, under Current and Future Climate Using Optimal MaxEnt Model

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Figure 5 shows the potential places for the beetle to populate different areas. It is strange that in Central Asia the settlement potential is low. Cotton growing is well developed in these countries. Therefore, Central Asia is a fairly good opportunity for the settlement of the weevil. Explain the result.

In general, the life cycle of this weevil is associated with cotton. Are you sure that cotton grows in Europe and other countries on all possible areas of invasion of this beetle?

Author Response

Response to Reviewer 1 Comments

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewers’ comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Potential Global Distribution of Anthonomus grandis Boheman under Current and Future Climate using Optimal MaxEnt Model” (ID：agriculture-1949963). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope to meet with approval. Revised parts are marked up red in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewer’s comments are as following:

Page 2

Point 1:

Figure 5 shows the potential places for the beetle to populate different areas. It is strange that in Central Asia the settlement potential is low. Cotton growing is well developed in these countries. Therefore, Central Asia is a fairly good opportunity for the settlement of the weevil. Explain the result.

Response 1:

It is known that the potential distribution of insects is mainly affected by climate change（Katrina et al.,2020）. In our study, we mainly study the impact of bioclimate variables and climate change on suitable habitats for A.grandis by MaxEnt model. In our result, from a climatic point of view, although the region of Central Asia is the main producing area of cotton, it is not suitable for the survival of A.grandis.

Katrina, L.P.; Chad, A. L.; Sophia, I. P. Current distributions and future climate-driven changes in diatoms, insects and fish in U.S. streams. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2020,30,63-78. DOI: 10.1111 /geb.13193.

Point 2:

In general, the life cycle of this weevil is associated with cotton. Are you sure that cotton grows in Europe and other countries on all possible areas of invasion of this beetle?

Response 2:

I am sure. In our result, the suitable habitat can cover major global cotton producing areas. For instance, the South of America, Central Brazil, the North of Argentina, Mexico and India, the South-east of Pakistan, the East of Australia. (USDA)

Reviewer 2 Report

The manuscript presented is well written, appropriately organised and very well described to allow replication of the methods. I think this manuscript will make an interesting addition to the journal contents of Agriculture. As such although the approach is not novel, it is a text book analysis of how to determine the distribution of a potentially invasive crop pest. I have no major concerns for the authors to address. Congratulations on a well-executed study.

If I can make one suggestion, it would be a point of interest to take the Asian region and show the predicted climatic suitability in the current as well as the most conservative and liberal climate change scenarios. The region seems to have quite a variation in highly suitable to unsuitable areas. It would then be good to mention which ports of entry would be most at risk. From a geo-political perspective it is interesting that China is not really at risk but that neighbouring countries to the South are highly suitable which may have implications for movement of cotton products.

Specific comments:

In Figure 4 you can specify the percentage the two variables most contributed to the distribution. I also assume these values magnitudes are unrelated to Table 1 because mean temperature did not have the second highest percentage there? It is a good idea to add two more variables if these also only slightly less contributed to the distribution model.

Considering that the average reader of the journal will not necessarily be that familiar with insect crop pests, consider adding a picture of the weevil with its scale indicated.

Author Response

Response to Reviewer 2 Comments

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewers’ comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Potential Global Distribution of Anthonomus grandis Boheman under Current and Future Climate using Optimal MaxEnt Model” (ID：agriculture-1949963). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope to meet with approval. Revised parts are marked up red in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewer’s comments are as following:

Page 2

Point 1:

In Figure 4 you can specify the percentage the two variables most contributed to the distribution. I also assume these values magnitudes are unrelated to Table 1 because mean temperature did not have the second highest percentage there? It is a good idea to add two more variables if these also only slightly less contributed to the distribution model.

Response 1:

Considering your suggestions, we have added two precipitation variables (bio18 (Precipitation of warmest quarter) & bio19 (Precipitation of warmest quarter)) to supplement the original results in the feedback manuscript. Previous results were temperature variables (bio1 (Annual Mean Temperature) & bio3 (Isothermality)). The added content is presented in lines 199 to 201 and 203 of the manuscript.

Point 2:

Considering that the average reader of the journal will not necessarily be that familiar with insect crop pests, consider adding a picture of the weevil with its scale indicated.

Response 2:

I am very sorry that we cannot obtain a copyrighted picture of A.grandis because A.grandis has not invaded China and if we obtain the picture in internet, we will infringe copyrights of other institutions.

Reviewer 3 Report

Title - inconclusive - suggested to change- indicating the menace status of pest such as 'alien species' or so.

Abstract - A glimpse of methodology shall be added in abstract.

Keywords - replace with better choice of words

Introduction - significance of applying SDM shall be explained in a more significant manner.

Methodology - formulae should be displayed in equation format.

Graphs and figures are well presented and clear.

Results are described with good clarity Discussion - significance of model type used in study shall be added in discussion. References to figures and tables to be removed from discussion.

Author Response

Response to Reviewer 3 Comments

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewers’ comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Potential Global Distribution of Anthonomus grandis Boheman under Current and Future Climate using Optimal MaxEnt Model” (ID：agriculture-1949963). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope to meet with approval. Revised parts are marked up red in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewer’s comments are as following:

Page 2

Point1:

Title - inconclusive - suggested to change- indicating the menace status of pest such as 'alien species' or so.

Response 1:

The original title has been changed to “Potential Global Distribution of invasive alien species Antho-nomus grandis Boheman under Current and Future Climate using Optimal MaxEnt Model”.

Point2:

Abstract - A glimpse of methodology shall be added in abstract.

Response 2:

The revised content is presented in lines 18 to 22 of the manuscript.

Point3:

Keywords - replace with better choice of words.

Response 3:

“invasive alien species; Anthonomus grandis Boheman; cotton;MaxEnt model；global potential distribution”have been changed to “cotton; invasive alien species; Anthonomus grandis Boheman; MaxEnt; global suitable habitats; climate change”.

Point4:

Introduction - significance of applying SDM shall be explained in a more significant manner.

Response 4:

The revised content is presented in lines 74 to 76 and 88 to 89 of the manuscript.

Point5:

Methodology - formulae should be displayed in equation format.

Response 5:

our study was mainly performed by software (ArcGIS, R and MaxEnt) on the computer and did not involve the specific formula.

Point6:

Results are described with good clarity Discussion - significance of model type used in study shall be added in discussion. References to figures and tables to be removed from discussion.

Response 6:

The revised content is presented in lines 316 to 319 of the manuscript and we have removed references to figures and tables from discussion.

Round 2

Reviewer 3 Report

The manuscript can be accepted and authors revised the manuscript accordingly.