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Open AccessArticle

Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables

1
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
2
Biomass Research, Costerweg 1D, 6702 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Mariusz Jerzy Stolarski
Agriculture 2021, 11(3), 267; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11030267
Received: 25 February 2021 / Revised: 13 March 2021 / Accepted: 17 March 2021 / Published: 20 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Agricultural Economics, Policies and Rural Management)
The causal basis for many of the relationships in models used to estimate the indirect effects of U.S. biofuels on global agricultural markets has not been adequately established. This paper addresses this gap by examining causal interactions among corn market variables through which the indirect effects of U.S. corn use for ethanol would be transmitted. Specifically, structural break and causal analyses of U.S. corn supply, uses, trade, and price are performed using quarterly data for marketing years 1986 to 2017. The structural break analysis identifies three breaks in corn use for ethanol that reflect the policy-driven evolution of U.S. corn ethanol production and other market factors. The causality analysis finds that U.S. corn use for ethanol is not a driver of the corn price and net corn exports. Changes in corn supply and domestic corn use are found to be the key factors in accommodating the large increase in corn use for ethanol between 2003 and 2010. These results mean that common assumptions linking U.S. corn ethanol production to large reductions in corn availability and exports, and higher global corn prices merit reconsideration. View Full-Text
Keywords: biofuels; corn ethanol; indirect land use effects; causality; structural breaks biofuels; corn ethanol; indirect land use effects; causality; structural breaks
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MDPI and ACS Style

Oladosu, G.A.; Kline, K.L.; Langeveld, J.W.A. Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables. Agriculture 2021, 11, 267. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11030267

AMA Style

Oladosu GA, Kline KL, Langeveld JWA. Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables. Agriculture. 2021; 11(3):267. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11030267

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oladosu, Gbadebo A.; Kline, Keith L.; Langeveld, Johannes W.A. 2021. "Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables" Agriculture 11, no. 3: 267. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11030267

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