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Article

Outpatient Readmission in Rheumatology: A Machine Learning Predictive Model of Patient’s Return to the Clinic

1
Rheumatology Department, and Health Research Institute (IdISSC), Hospital Clínico San Carlos, 28040 Madrid, Spain
2
Dpto. Ingeniería Sistemas Telemáticos, ETSI Telecomunicación, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Avda. Complutense 3, 28040 Madrid, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
J. Clin. Med. 2019, 8(8), 1156; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm8081156
Received: 3 July 2019 / Revised: 30 July 2019 / Accepted: 31 July 2019 / Published: 2 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Future of Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Medicine)
Our objective is to develop and validate a predictive model based on the random forest algorithm to estimate the readmission risk to an outpatient rheumatology clinic after discharge. We included patients from the Hospital Clínico San Carlos rheumatology outpatient clinic, from 1 April 2007 to 30 November 2016, and followed-up until 30 November 2017. Only readmissions between 2 and 12 months after the discharge were analyzed. Discharge episodes were chronologically split into training, validation, and test datasets. Clinical and demographic variables (diagnoses, treatments, quality of life (QoL), and comorbidities) were used as predictors. Models were developed in the training dataset, using a grid search approach, and performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). A total of 18,662 discharge episodes were analyzed, out of which 2528 (13.5%) were followed by outpatient readmissions. Overall, 38,059 models were developed. AUC-ROC, sensitivity, and specificity of the reduced final model were 0.653, 0.385, and 0.794, respectively. The most important variables were related to follow-up duration, being prescribed with disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs and corticosteroids, being diagnosed with chronic polyarthritis, occupation, and QoL. We have developed a predictive model for outpatient readmission in a rheumatology setting. Identification of patients with higher risk can optimize the allocation of healthcare resources. View Full-Text
Keywords: musculoskeletal diseases; outpatient readmission; predictive model; random forest; quality of life musculoskeletal diseases; outpatient readmission; predictive model; random forest; quality of life
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MDPI and ACS Style

Madrid-García, A.; Font-Urgelles, J.; Vega-Barbas, M.; León-Mateos, L.; Freites, D.D.; Lajas, C.J.; Pato, E.; Jover, J.A.; Fernández-Gutiérrez, B.; Abásolo-Alcazar, L.; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, L. Outpatient Readmission in Rheumatology: A Machine Learning Predictive Model of Patient’s Return to the Clinic. J. Clin. Med. 2019, 8, 1156. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm8081156

AMA Style

Madrid-García A, Font-Urgelles J, Vega-Barbas M, León-Mateos L, Freites DD, Lajas CJ, Pato E, Jover JA, Fernández-Gutiérrez B, Abásolo-Alcazar L, Rodríguez-Rodríguez L. Outpatient Readmission in Rheumatology: A Machine Learning Predictive Model of Patient’s Return to the Clinic. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2019; 8(8):1156. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm8081156

Chicago/Turabian Style

Madrid-García, Alfredo, Judit Font-Urgelles, Mario Vega-Barbas, Leticia León-Mateos, Dalifer D. Freites, Cristina J. Lajas, Esperanza Pato, Juan A. Jover, Benjamín Fernández-Gutiérrez, Lydia Abásolo-Alcazar, and Luis Rodríguez-Rodríguez. 2019. "Outpatient Readmission in Rheumatology: A Machine Learning Predictive Model of Patient’s Return to the Clinic" Journal of Clinical Medicine 8, no. 8: 1156. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm8081156

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