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Open AccessArticle

Geospatial-Temporal and Demand Models for Opioid Admissions, Implications for Policy

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Department of Health Administration, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA
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School of Engineering, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA
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Department of Geography, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2019, 8(7), 993; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm8070993
Received: 12 May 2019 / Revised: 19 June 2019 / Accepted: 3 July 2019 / Published: 8 July 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Application of Opioids in Clinical Medicine)
Background: As the opioid epidemic continues, understanding the geospatial, temporal, and demand patterns is important for policymakers to assign resources and interdict individual, organization, and country-level bad actors. Methods: GIS geospatial-temporal analysis and extreme-gradient boosted random forests evaluate ICD-10 F11 opioid-related admissions and admission rates using geospatial analysis, demand analysis, and explanatory models, respectively. The period of analysis was January 2016 through September 2018. Results: The analysis shows existing high opioid admissions in Chicago and New Jersey with emerging areas in Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. High rates of admission (claims per 10,000 population) exist in the Appalachian area and on the Northeastern seaboard. Explanatory models suggest that hospital overall workload and financial variables might be used for allocating opioid-related treatment funds effectively. Gradient-boosted random forest models accounted for 87.8% of the variability of claims on blinded 20% test data. Conclusions: Based on the GIS analysis, opioid admissions appear to have spread geographically, while higher frequency rates are still found in some regions. Interdiction efforts require demand-analysis such as that provided in this study to allocate scarce resources for supply-side and demand-side interdiction: Prevention, treatment, and enforcement. View Full-Text
Keywords: opioids; GIS; random forests opioids; GIS; random forests
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Fulton, L.; Dong, Z.; Zhan, F.B.; Kruse, C.S.; Stigler Granados, P. Geospatial-Temporal and Demand Models for Opioid Admissions, Implications for Policy. J. Clin. Med. 2019, 8, 993.

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