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Article

Personalized Prediction of Clozapine Treatment Response Using Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Data in Japanese Patients with Treatment-Resistant Schizophrenia

by
Tatsuo Nakahara
1,
Yukiko Harada
1,
Naho Nakayama
1,
Kijiro Hashimoto
1,
Naoya Kida
2,
Toshiaki Onitsuka
3,
Hiroo Noda
4,
Kenji Murasugi
5,
Yoshihiro Takimoto
6,
Wataru Omori
7,
Tsuruhei Sukegawa
8,
Jun Shiraishi
9,
Kouji Tanaka
10,
Hitoshi Maesato
2,11 and
Takefumi Ueno
1,*
1
National Hospital Organization, Hizen Psychiatric Center, Saga 842-0192, Japan
2
National Hospital Organization, Ryukyu Hospital, Okinawa 904-1201, Japan
3
National Hospital Organization, Sakakibara Hospital, Mie 514-1292, Japan
4
National Hospital Organization, Saigata Medical Center, Niigata 949-3193, Japan
5
National Hospital Organization, Komoro Kogen Hospital, Nagano 384-8540, Japan
6
National Hospital Organization, Yamato Psychiatric Center, Nara 639-1042, Japan
7
National Hospital Organization, Department of Psychiatry, Kure Medical Center and Chugoku Cancer Center, Hiroshima 737-0023, Japan
8
National Hospital Organization, Tottori Medical Center, Tottori 689-0203, Japan
9
National Hospital Organization, Hokuriku Hospital, Toyama 939-1893, Japan
10
National Hospital Organization, Kikuchi National Hospital, Kumamoto 861-1116, Japan
11
National Hospital Organization, Kurihama Medical and Addiction Center, Kanagawa 239-0841, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2025, 14(21), 7892; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm14217892
Submission received: 24 September 2025 / Revised: 23 October 2025 / Accepted: 29 October 2025 / Published: 6 November 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Clinical Therapy in Dementia and Related Diseases)

Abstract

Background: Clozapine is the only antipsychotic medication proven effective in patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). However, many patients have serum concentrations outside the recommended therapeutic window, and clozapine exhibits substantial interindividual variability. This study aimed to (1) examine clozapine dosage and blood concentrations in patients with TRS; (2) investigate the effects of sex and age on dosage and blood concentrations; (3) assess clinical response to clozapine treatment; and (4) develop a random forest (RF) model to predict therapeutic response using clinical and therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data. Methods: Dried blood spots were used to measure concentrations of clozapine, norclozapine, and clozapine N-oxide. Clinical symptoms were assessed using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). The RF algorithm was applied to analyze the relationships between biochemical and demographic factors and clinical response to clozapine. Results: A total of 754 blood samples from 167 patients were analyzed. Men received higher doses than women, and glucose levels were elevated in both sexes. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.986 for the training set and 0.852 for the testing set. Accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score (training/testing) were 0.938/0.786, 0.936/0.736, 0.934/0.780, and 0.935/0.757, respectively. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis indicated that baseline BPRS score, treatment duration, age, and clozapine concentration were important variables contributing to the output of the model. Conclusions: Our model achieved satisfactory predictive performance for clinical response and provides valuable insights into personalized prediction of clozapine efficacy.
Keywords: clozapine; norclozapine; clozapine N-oxide; therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM); random forest (RF); personalized medicine; treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) clozapine; norclozapine; clozapine N-oxide; therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM); random forest (RF); personalized medicine; treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS)

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Nakahara, T.; Harada, Y.; Nakayama, N.; Hashimoto, K.; Kida, N.; Onitsuka, T.; Noda, H.; Murasugi, K.; Takimoto, Y.; Omori, W.; et al. Personalized Prediction of Clozapine Treatment Response Using Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Data in Japanese Patients with Treatment-Resistant Schizophrenia. J. Clin. Med. 2025, 14, 7892. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm14217892

AMA Style

Nakahara T, Harada Y, Nakayama N, Hashimoto K, Kida N, Onitsuka T, Noda H, Murasugi K, Takimoto Y, Omori W, et al. Personalized Prediction of Clozapine Treatment Response Using Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Data in Japanese Patients with Treatment-Resistant Schizophrenia. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2025; 14(21):7892. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm14217892

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nakahara, Tatsuo, Yukiko Harada, Naho Nakayama, Kijiro Hashimoto, Naoya Kida, Toshiaki Onitsuka, Hiroo Noda, Kenji Murasugi, Yoshihiro Takimoto, Wataru Omori, and et al. 2025. "Personalized Prediction of Clozapine Treatment Response Using Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Data in Japanese Patients with Treatment-Resistant Schizophrenia" Journal of Clinical Medicine 14, no. 21: 7892. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm14217892

APA Style

Nakahara, T., Harada, Y., Nakayama, N., Hashimoto, K., Kida, N., Onitsuka, T., Noda, H., Murasugi, K., Takimoto, Y., Omori, W., Sukegawa, T., Shiraishi, J., Tanaka, K., Maesato, H., & Ueno, T. (2025). Personalized Prediction of Clozapine Treatment Response Using Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Data in Japanese Patients with Treatment-Resistant Schizophrenia. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 14(21), 7892. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm14217892

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