Vaccine Effects on Susceptibility and Symptomatology Can Change the Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines: South Korea as an Example

Choi, Wongyeong; Shim, Eunha

doi:10.3390/jcm10132813

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Vaccine Effects on Susceptibility and Symptomatology Can Change the Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines: South Korea as an Example

Wongyeong Choi

and

Eunha Shim

Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, 369 Sangdoro, Dongjak-Gu, Seoul 06978, Korea

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Academic Editor: Hiroshi Nishiura

J. Clin. Med. 2021, 10(13), 2813; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10132813

Received: 15 May 2021 / Revised: 20 June 2021 / Accepted: 21 June 2021 / Published: 25 June 2021

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Real Time Clinical and Epidemiological Investigations on Novel Coronavirus - Part II)

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Abstract

The approved coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccines reduce the risk of disease by 70–95%; however, their efficacy in preventing COVID-19 is unclear. Moreover, the limited vaccine supply raises questions on how they can be used effectively. To examine the optimal allocation of COVID-19 vaccines in South Korea, we constructed an age-structured mathematical model, calibrated using country-specific demographic and epidemiological data. The optimal control problem was formulated with the aim of finding time-dependent age-specific optimal vaccination strategies to minimize costs related to COVID-19 infections and vaccination, considering a limited vaccine supply and various vaccine effects on susceptibility and symptomatology. Our results suggest that “susceptibility-reducing” vaccines should be relatively evenly distributed among all age groups, resulting in more than 40% of eligible age groups being vaccinated. In contrast, “symptom-reducing” vaccines should be administered mainly to individuals aged 20–29 and ≥60 years. Thus, our study suggests that the vaccine profile should determine the optimal vaccination strategy. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding vaccine’s effects on susceptibility and symptomatology for effective public health interventions. View Full-Text

Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical model; vaccination; optimal control theory; vaccine efficacy

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Choi, W.; Shim, E. Vaccine Effects on Susceptibility and Symptomatology Can Change the Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines: South Korea as an Example. J. Clin. Med. 2021, 10, 2813. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10132813

AMA Style

Choi W, Shim E. Vaccine Effects on Susceptibility and Symptomatology Can Change the Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines: South Korea as an Example. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2021; 10(13):2813. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10132813

Chicago/Turabian Style

Choi, Wongyeong, and Eunha Shim. 2021. "Vaccine Effects on Susceptibility and Symptomatology Can Change the Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines: South Korea as an Example" Journal of Clinical Medicine 10, no. 13: 2813. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10132813

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Vaccine Effects on Susceptibility and Symptomatology Can Change the Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines: South Korea as an Example

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