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Article

Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration

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Academia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales, Palacio de las Academias, Av. Universidad, Caracas 1030, Venezuela
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Laboratorio de Biología de Vectores y Parásitos, Instituto de Zoología y Ecología Tropical, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas 1058, Venezuela
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Grupo de Biología Matemática y Computacional, Departamento de Ingeniería Biomédica, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogotá 111711, Colombia
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Department of Medical Microbiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands
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Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolívar 8001, Venezuela
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Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas 1058, Venezuela
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Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Ralph J. DiClemente
Vaccines 2021, 9(7), 719; https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070719
Received: 30 May 2021 / Revised: 22 June 2021 / Accepted: 23 June 2021 / Published: 1 July 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Epidemiology of COVID-19)
Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to the population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability that impact population movement. Using a metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the onset of the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil, where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country. View Full-Text
Keywords: SEI models; metapopulations; Venezuela; SARS-CoV-2; drivers of transmission; spatial incidence SEI models; metapopulations; Venezuela; SARS-CoV-2; drivers of transmission; spatial incidence
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MDPI and ACS Style

Lampo, M.; Hernández-Villena, J.V.; Cascante, J.; Vincenti-González, M.F.; Forero-Peña, D.A.; Segovia, M.J.; Hampson, K.; Castro, J.; Grillet, M.E. Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration. Vaccines 2021, 9, 719. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070719

AMA Style

Lampo M, Hernández-Villena JV, Cascante J, Vincenti-González MF, Forero-Peña DA, Segovia MJ, Hampson K, Castro J, Grillet ME. Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration. Vaccines. 2021; 9(7):719. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070719

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lampo, Margarita, Juan V. Hernández-Villena, Jaime Cascante, María F. Vincenti-González, David A. Forero-Peña, Maikell J. Segovia, Katie Hampson, Julio Castro, and Maria Eugenia Grillet. 2021. "Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration" Vaccines 9, no. 7: 719. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070719

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