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Open AccessArticle

Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China

1
Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar
2
World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation–Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar
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Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10022, USA
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Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha 2713, Qatar
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Silvio Tafuri and Steven B. Bradfute
Vaccines 2021, 9(3), 223; https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9030223
Received: 7 January 2021 / Revised: 4 February 2021 / Accepted: 2 March 2021 / Published: 5 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Vaccines against Infectious Diseases)
This study forecasts Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination impact in two countries at different epidemic phases, the United States (US) and China. We assessed the impact of both a vaccine that prevents infection (VES of 95%) and a vaccine that prevents only disease (VEP of 95%) through mathematical modeling. For VES of 95% and gradual easing of restrictions, vaccination in the US reduced the peak incidence of infection, disease, and death by >55% and cumulative incidence by >32% and in China by >77% and >65%, respectively. Nearly three vaccinations were needed to avert one infection in the US, but only one was needed in China. For VEP of 95%, vaccination benefits were half those for VES of 95%. In both countries, impact of vaccination was substantially enhanced with rapid scale-up, vaccine coverage >50%, and slower or no easing of restrictions, particularly in the US. COVID-19 vaccination can flatten, delay, and/or prevent future epidemic waves. However, vaccine impact is destined to be heterogeneous across countries because of an underlying “epidemiologic inequity” that reduces benefits for countries already at high incidence, such as the US. Despite 95% efficacy, actual vaccine impact could be meager in such countries if vaccine scale-up is slow, acceptance is poor, or restrictions are eased prematurely. View Full-Text
Keywords: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); COVID-19; coronavirus; epidemiology; vaccine; mathematical model severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); COVID-19; coronavirus; epidemiology; vaccine; mathematical model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Makhoul, M.; Chemaitelly, H.; Ayoub, H.H.; Seedat, S.; Abu-Raddad, L.J. Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China. Vaccines 2021, 9, 223. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9030223

AMA Style

Makhoul M, Chemaitelly H, Ayoub HH, Seedat S, Abu-Raddad LJ. Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China. Vaccines. 2021; 9(3):223. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9030223

Chicago/Turabian Style

Makhoul, Monia; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Ayoub, Houssein H.; Seedat, Shaheen; Abu-Raddad, Laith J. 2021. "Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China" Vaccines 9, no. 3: 223. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9030223

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