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Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example

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Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff CF23 8RB, UK
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Diabetes Resource Centre, University Hospital Llandough, Cardiff CF64 2XX, UK
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Moderna Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
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Ashfield Healthcare on Behalf of Moderna, Ashby-de-la-Zouch LE65 1HW, UK
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Diabetes and Vascular Research Centre, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter EX1 2HZ, UK
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The Academic Department of Healthcare for Older Adults, Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital, Exeter EX2 5DW, UK
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Andrej M. Grjibovski
Vaccines 2021, 9(10), 1180; https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9101180
Received: 11 September 2021 / Revised: 29 September 2021 / Accepted: 4 October 2021 / Published: 15 October 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Vaccines and Society)
Debate persists around the risk–benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy. View Full-Text
Keywords: adolescent; coronavirus; disease transmission model; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; vaccination adolescent; coronavirus; disease transmission model; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; vaccination
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MDPI and ACS Style

Shiri, T.; Evans, M.; Talarico, C.A.; Morgan, A.R.; Mussad, M.; Buck, P.O.; McEwan, P.; Strain, W.D. Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example. Vaccines 2021, 9, 1180. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9101180

AMA Style

Shiri T, Evans M, Talarico CA, Morgan AR, Mussad M, Buck PO, McEwan P, Strain WD. Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example. Vaccines. 2021; 9(10):1180. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9101180

Chicago/Turabian Style

Shiri, Tinevimbo, Marc Evans, Carla A. Talarico, Angharad R. Morgan, Maaz Mussad, Philip O. Buck, Phil McEwan, and William D. Strain. 2021. "Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example" Vaccines 9, no. 10: 1180. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9101180

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