A Short-Term Forecast Model of foF2 Based on Elman Neural Network
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Model Principle
2.1. Elman Neural Network (ENN)
2.2. Improved Particle Optimization Algorithm
2.2.1. Particle Swarm Optimization for ENN
2.2.2. Improvement of Particle Swarm Optimization
3. Data Settings and Model Construction
3.1. Setting of Training Data
3.1.1. Diurnal and Seasonal Variation
3.1.2. Solar and Magnetic Activities
3.1.3. Present Value of foF2
3.2. Architecture of the ENN
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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FACTOR | Diurnal and Seasonal Variation | Solar and Magnetic Activities | Present Value | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VARIABLE | HRS | HRC | DNS | DNC | SSN | F10.7 | Kp | Dst | foF2 |
YEAR | Annual Average | IPSO-ENN | ENN | BPNN | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
foF2/MHz | RMSE/MHz | RE/% | RMSE/MHz | RE/% | RMSE/MHz | RE/% | |
2014 | 8.19 | 0.75 | 7.58 | 0.81 | 8.53 | 0.85 | 8.66 |
2016 | 6.24 | 0.68 | 8.58 | 0.76 | 10.03 | 0.79 | 10.20 |
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Fan, J.; Liu, C.; Lv, Y.; Han, J.; Wang, J. A Short-Term Forecast Model of foF2 Based on Elman Neural Network. Appl. Sci. 2019, 9, 2782. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9142782
Fan J, Liu C, Lv Y, Han J, Wang J. A Short-Term Forecast Model of foF2 Based on Elman Neural Network. Applied Sciences. 2019; 9(14):2782. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9142782
Chicago/Turabian StyleFan, Jieqing, Chao Liu, Yajing Lv, Jing Han, and Jian Wang. 2019. "A Short-Term Forecast Model of foF2 Based on Elman Neural Network" Applied Sciences 9, no. 14: 2782. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9142782